Intrigue Unveiled: US Intelligence Agencies Uncover Damning Evidence Linking Iran to Devastating Hamas Attack on Israel

The US intelligence community is sifting through its data reserves and enlisting the country's spy agencies to search for new evidence in order to ascertain whether Iran was directly involved in the lethal attack on Israel by Hamas on Saturday, according to a senior official from the Biden administration on Tuesday.

While the US acknowledges that Iran has supported the Palestinian militant group for years and is thus "complicit" in the attack, national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated on Tuesday that the administration currently lacks concrete proof connecting Tehran to the planning and execution of the assault.

Sullivan informed reporters at the White House that they are seeking additional intelligence. However, at present, there is no information confirming Iran's direct involvement in the October 7 attack on Hamas, despite their ongoing support and capabilities provided to the group, as multiple intelligence, military, and congressional officials, who have access to classified intelligence, privately affirm.

"Waiting to see if we get a smoking gun in the intel," said one military official.

Israeli intelligence is also going back and examining previous evidence, a senior Israeli official told CNN.

"I highly doubt that Iran was completely unaware," stated the official. "We have observed numerous meetings and witnessed the extensive coordination between them."

Surprisingly, neither US nor Israeli intelligence had any prior indication of the attack, which US officials find astounding considering its magnitude. As a result, the Biden administration is proceeding with caution.

Where else would it have come from?

For years, Iran has remained a key supporter of Hamas, offering significant financial aid, weaponry, and smuggled components to Gaza. Moreover, Iran has provided extensive technical and ideological assistance, solidifying their partnership.

Hamas retains a certain level of autonomy from the Iranian regime. Former security officials and regional analysts affirm that Tehran does not have advisors present in besieged Gaza, and it does not exercise control over the group's actions.

However, the massive magnitude of the recent weekend attack, coupled with the widespread belief among analysts that Iran perceives the attack as advantageous for its regional interests, has raised doubts regarding whether Hamas could have executed such a complex operation without direct assistance from Iran.

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A State Department official acknowledged that considerable attention and resources are devoted to monitoring Iran's activities and devising strategies to respond to them. The official noted that the recent development represents a significant shift in this ongoing dialogue.

According to Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, the group disclosed receiving approximately $70 million from Iran in 2022, which was utilized for the construction of rockets. A report released by the State Department in 2020 revealed that Iran annually supplied around $100 million to Palestinian terrorist organizations, Hamas included.

Former US officials assert that there is little doubt that Iran provided assistance in acquiring and assembling the extensive arsenal of weapons used in the attack on Saturday. Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, who previously commanded US Central Command, stated, "Hamas did not develop the guidance system and missiles in Gaza. They obtained them from an external source. The technological support required to assemble such weaponry undoubtedly originated from Iran - there is no other plausible explanation."

Still, the Biden administration has refrained from explicitly ascribing responsibility for the attack's tactical planning and execution to Tehran, despite the fact that current and former US intelligence analysts, who were interviewed by CNN, have warned that previous Iranian assistance to the group does not substantiate evidence of their direct involvement.

A plume of smoke rises in the sky over Gaza City during an Israeli airstrike on October 9.

Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images

Zohar Palti, the former head of the Political-Military Bureau at Israel's Ministry of Defense, stated, "The support is evident, even in the absence of explicit instructions." He further emphasized that while Hamas is not a complete Iranian proxy, their relationship has grown significantly closer compared to three years ago. Despite public admiration from Tehran, the Iranian government has refuted any involvement in the attack. Israel has also publicly shown a sense of caution.

Disrupting Saudi, Israeli negotiations

Some US officials privately believe that Iran probably had a role in planning the attack. However, these personal assessments stem largely from the belief that Iran would seize any chance to disrupt the delicate negotiations aimed at normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saturday attack is widely perceived as a threat to these talks.

On the other hand, other analysts argue that it is just as plausible that Iran would have preferred to stay away from any Hamas operation against Israel, even if it knew about it beforehand.

Norm Roule, the former national intelligence manager for Iran at the CIA, stated that Iran does not benefit from increasing its direct involvement. Instead, Iran strategically identifies regional proxies and offers them political, financial, and security assistance to exert control over specific areas. While Iran does encourage military operations, it delegates the management of those actions to its proxies.

Fire burns in Ashkelon, Israel. after rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023.

According to Mike Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Iran-backed proxy groups, it is conceivable that Iran may have offered preliminary operational and planning assistance for the attack but informed Hamas that they would be left to handle the situation on their own.

"This seems like Hamas has acquired some noteworthy and potentially influential tactics from an external source, which quite possibly could be the Iranians," stated Knights. "However, this does not necessarily indicate that Iran is inclined to escalate the conflict on a larger scale."

An evolving relationship

The Iran-Hamas relationship has undergone significant changes over time. Initially, during the Syrian civil war ten years ago, Hamas and Iran found themselves in opposing positions. Their relationship has long been strained due to their contrasting Islamist ideologies: Hamas being Sunni Muslim and Iran being Shia Muslim. However, Hamas has observed Iran's growing influence in the region, particularly as the United States' reduced engagement in the Middle East has allowed Tehran to take advantage of the resulting power vacuum. These observations were made by Michael Milshtein, the former head of the Department for Palestinian Affairs in the Israeli military's intelligence directorate.

Tehran has increased its training aid to Hamas in Iran, according to a former Western defense official. The official stated that Iran has become more proactive in providing logistics and training to Hamas with the explicit intention of destabilizing the region. According to Knights, Hamas now has the closest relationship with Shia Iran compared to any Sunni group. Furthermore, Iran has supplied Hamas with precision loitering munitions drone systems that it has not even provided to the Iraqi militias it has been allied with since the 1980s.

Knights stated that this implies an actual operational arming, training, and equipping level, similar to what we have witnessed only in the case of Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. However, Milshtein clarified that Hamas is not an Iran proxy. In contrast to terror organizations like Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas retains a notable level of independence from Tehran, despite the significant increase in assistance.

According to Milshtein, Hamas has developed a strong alliance with Iran, primarily focused on military cooperation. Hamas has received weapons and military technology from Iran, as well as gained knowledge on operation planning. However, it is important to note that while Iran has assisted Hamas, the ultimate decision-making power still lies within the Hamas leadership. Milshtein emphasized that the recent events cannot solely be attributed to an Iranian master plan or effort, but rather it is a plan initiated by Hamas with Iranian assistance.

Searching for a motivation

US intelligence officials are also striving to comprehend the underlying incentives behind the initiation of the attack by Hamas. In contrast to the Palestinian Authority, this extremist faction refuses to acknowledge the presence of Israel and actively pursues the annihilation of the Jewish state.

The more than 2 million residents of the Gaza Strip live in overcrowded and inadequate conditions, due in part to the Israeli blockade and frequent airstrikes on the densely populated area. According to McKenzie and others, Hamas's primary motivation in disrupting normalization talks was likely driven by its own narrow agenda.

"I believe that Hamas gives very little importance to the process of normalization," stated McKenzie. "Their focus is more on the Hamas-Israeli relationship rather than broader geostrategic matters that could affect Saudi Arabia."