Breaking News: Nottingham Forest Stun Manchester United in Unforgettable Premier League Upset

Our resident tipster and betting guru Jones Knows makes the case for 9/1 Nottingham Forest to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford on Saturday.

Bournemouth vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm

Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola seemed to have overlooked the alarming defensive vulnerability from set pieces last season. With a staggering tally of 21 goals conceded from set pieces (excluding penalties), they were the team that struggled the most in this aspect. It is evident that they are in dire need of assistance. Unfortunately, the initial indications under Iraola's guidance are not promising.

During his tenure at Rayo Vallecano, Iraola's team had a disheartening record of conceding 23 goals from corners and free-kicks in just two seasons. This was once again the worst performance among all the sides. These statistics lead me to believe that he doesn't prioritize organizing his team defensively in set piece situations. This flaw was ruthlessly exposed by Liverpool in their recent match.

Virgil van Dijk struck the post and missed the target with two other attempts, while Ibrahim Konate also had a shot on goal. Bournemouth has already conceded 1.04 expected goals from set pieces this season, the highest in the Premier League.

So, how can we benefit from this? Enter Cristian Romero. With a goal to his name this season and attempts on goal in both matches, Romero proves to be an aggressive threat during set pieces. When considering Bournemouth's vulnerability, Romero appears undervalued in various betting markets. The odds of Evens with Sky Bet for Romero to have one or more shots on goal are particularly intriguing, as is his outright anytime scorer price of 16/1.

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Cristian Romero scored for Spurs vs Brentford

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Cristian Romero to score (16/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Arsenal vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Fulham face a daunting challenge this season, walking a tightrope. With the departure of Aleksander Mitrovic, who scored an impressive 57 goals in the last two campaigns, critical decisions are needed to prevent them from getting entangled in a relegation battle. Did they anticipate Mitrovic's departure? It appears not, and this raises concerns.

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This year there is even more to play with Super 6, as well as a £1,000,000 jackpot!

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Given the importance of securing Premier League safety, there is now a week for the team to urgently strengthen their attacking options, as the current reliance on Raul Jimenez's declining abilities is simply insufficient. Taking into consideration the potential for Fulham's overachievement and lack of progress, I am seriously considering placing a bet on their relegation at odds of 4/1. As for this specific match, it seems like a safe choice to bet on Arsenal winning with under 3.5 goals, which is likely to result in a victory.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm

The previous encounters between these two teams have all ended in draws, with Vitaly Janelt's late equalizer in the last season being the decisive factor. This outcome is unsurprising, as both teams prioritize defensive solidity and tend to take fewer risks. When two teams known for their difficult-to-beat nature clash, opting for a draw in the outright market seems like the most logical starting point. The odds of 12/5 offered by Sky Bet for a draw are highly favorable.

I also have my eye on a player who might get a yellow card. In the current season, 14 yellow cards have already been shown for timewasting in the first 19 Premier League games. The majority of these cards have been given during throw-ins, which have been commonly used to slow down the game in favor of a team's strategy. Interestingly, seven of these cards have been given to full backs.

Considering that Jordan Ayew, who is known for winning fouls and has drawn 31 fouls in his last nine matches, will be facing Brentford left-back Rico Henry, it would be worth considering the odds of 6/1 with Sky Bet for Henry receiving a yellow card. This is not a bad price, especially considering that Henry has been booked in five of his last eight appearances.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Analysis

Everton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This significant fixture holds no advantage for either team. Surprisingly, Everton may even find their own stadium, Goodison Park, to be a disadvantage in this matchup.

Only two matches into the season and the shadow of defeat is already looming over Sean Dyche's team. They have yet to secure a single point or score a goal, and it seems unlikely that this trajectory will change anytime soon. In fact, things may worsen before they improve. Everton's squad is currently lacking depth and is noticeably lacking in Premier League caliber players, especially without the influential trio of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil, and Alex Iwobi, who are all sidelined due to injuries. These three players possess genuine talent and are capable of making a significant impact on the game, but unfortunately, they will be absent in this particular match.

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Dominic Calvert-Lewin suffered an injury during the Aston Villa match.

Despite their lack of points and goals, Wolves have displayed strong performances according to key data. They have accumulated an impressive expected goal value of 4.48 in their two matches, which is the fourth highest among all teams. Matheus Cunha has contributed 1.02 of this significant figure, showcasing his destructive form as a key player in the Wolves' attack.

He has successfully penetrated the opposing team's box on 18 occasions, ranking fourth among all players in the league. Moreover, he has demonstrated exceptional performance by making four progressive carries that resulted in the creation of scoring opportunities. Only Phil Foden has achieved a higher number in this regard. It would be quite surprising if he does not play a significant role in determining the outcome of this match. Considering the odds of 7/1 on him scoring in an away win, it is certainly a bet worth considering.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Matheus Cunha to score in a Wolves win (7/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

made 18 runs into the opposition box, the fourth highest of any player in the league, whilst recording an impressive tally of four progressive carries that ended in a chance being created. Only Phil Foden has posted more. I'd be surprised if he isn't a major factor in the result of this match. The 7/1 on him scoring in an away win certainly rates as a bet to consider.

Manchester United had little concerns going into the pre-season after securing a top-four finish and winning a cup final. However, it appears that signs of a possible decline were evident in their overperformance based on last season's performance data. When analyzing the quality of chances created and conceded, and converting them into expected points, it was revealed that they had overperformed by nearly 13 points according to the formula. This modeling suggested that they would have actually finished as the sixth-best team.

Teams that outperform their expected results often tend to regress to the average in the following season. It's possible that Manchester United is experiencing such regression. Furthermore, considering the lack of evident improvement in the quality of their starting lineup and the potential decline of key players due to age, there is a strong likelihood that United is being overrated by the market in terms of their chances. This was evident in their recent match against Tottenham, where they were favored but ultimately defeated. It's also worth noting that United has conceded the most shots in the box (31) and the most touches in their own box (88) so far this season, although this data is based on a relatively small sample size.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Given Ten Hag's ruthlessness and problem solving skills, it is highly likely that he will find a solution. However, I would like to see some evidence of this improvement before considering laying United at their current prices. This cautious approach could prove to be a profitable strategy.

Brighton vs West Ham, Saturday Night Football 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If you prefer a safer bet, you can back Forest to either win or draw at 5/2 odds with Sky Bet. This seems like a sensible play considering the circumstances.

Brighton are at it again this season. A pure joy. They are, however, no means perfect, especially when teams turn the ball over quickly.

Luton and Wolves, despite losing 4-1 in both matches, displayed promising statistics for opposing teams penetrating Brighton's final third. Brighton is currently without Moises Caicedo in that area. Wolves and Luton managed to generate opportunities within Brighton's defensive zone, conceding an expected 3.62 goals and facing 19 shots from inside their own box, indicating their ability to create high-quality chances.

The success of West Ham's counter-attack game relies heavily on Jarrod Bowen, who serves as their primary attacker. This strategy involves Bowen finding open spaces to exploit.

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Jarrod Bowen's goal against Bournemouth is cause for celebration, and he is currently priced at 9/2 to score this weekend. In my opinion, the upcoming game at the Amex Stadium promises to be a high-scoring affair, providing ample opportunities for Bowen to excel. His threat on the field is evident from his impressive tally of 14 shots on target in his last 13 games across various competitions, with six of those shots successfully finding the back of the net. Considering these statistics, both the odds of 10/11 for him to hit the target and the 9/2 anytime scorer price seem favorable and worth taking a bet on.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | Jarrod Bowen to have at least one shot on target (10/11 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Burnley vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

Aston Villa's ability to catch opposition players offside remains a consistent and effective attacking strategy.

In their past 12 matches across all competitions, Aston Villa's defensive trap has successfully caught 63 players in offside positions. This impressive feat includes an astounding nine offside calls in their recent 5-0 victory over Hibernian on Thursday. With an average of 5.25 offsides per game during this 12-match period, it is clear that this is a tactic that Unai Emery greatly favors. Therefore, it is highly likely that Burnley will also pose a threat to this average.

They had the highest number of offside incidents in the previous season in the Sky Bet Championship, averaging 2.2 per game. Regrettably, the exorbitant prices from last season are no longer available, but the odds of 6/5 offered by Sky Bet for Burnley being caught offside four or more times still remain reasonable for consideration.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

They had the highest number of offside incidents in the previous season in the Sky Bet Championship, averaging 2.2 per game.

Sheffield United vs Manchester City, Super Sunday 2.00pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Regrettably, the exorbitant prices from last season are no longer available, but the odds of 6/5 offered by Sky Bet for Burnley being caught offside four or more times still remain reasonable for consideration.

Sheffield United faced a tough challenge in their last two matches as three powerful centre forwards successfully found the back of the net. All the goals were the result of well-placed crosses into the box. Now, Erling Haaland, an exceptional player, steps onto the field. With Sky Bet offering odds as short as 2/5 for him to score and just 7/1 for him to secure his seventh hat-trick for Manchester City, he is definitely one to watch out for.

However, there is a more efficient approach, albeit at a higher cost, to back Haaland in this particular situation.

Out of Haaland's impressive tally of 36 goals in the previous Premier League season, seven of them were scored through headers. His ability to score skillfully in the air is not surprising, given his towering height of over six feet and the exceptional deliveries he receives from some of the finest players in the world.

Man City's style of play has evolved, moving away from their reputation as flawless passers and goal experts. They now incorporate a more direct approach, focusing on sending the ball into the box whenever feasible. This decision is quite obvious when you take into account the imposing presence of their dominant player in the central position.

With odds of 11/2 to score a header and 3/1 to have a header on target, it's a smart move to rely on Haaland's prowess in using his head.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Erling Haaland to score a header (11/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Newcastle vs Liverpool, Super Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This match has all the elements for an exciting game of the season. Things could get quite intense out there.

When an exhilarating game is anticipated, my focus is always on the total shots on target market rather than the goal-line. This is because there may be opportunities to exploit differences in the betting market. It's also an enjoyable bet to make, as you have a vested interest in both teams' attacking performances.

When there is a high expectation for goals, the number of shots on target should reflect that. However, it seems that there is an advantage in the pricing here, with odds of 6/5 offered by Sky Bet for 11 or more match shots on target. When Liverpool is not performing at their best, their shots on target numbers tend to exceed market expectations due to the vulnerability of their defense and goalkeeper caused by the lack of balance in midfield.

Newcastle should be able to meet the market expectation of around six shots on target, while Liverpool's attack has proven to be lethal in certain periods of their first two matches. In Liverpool's victory over Bournemouth, there were a total of 15 shots on target in the match. It is likely that this match will follow a similar pattern.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-3

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