Australia's Diplomatic Dance in the South China Sea: Navigating Tensions While Strengthening Ties with the Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made it clear during his address to the Australian Parliament last week that the Philippines is at the forefront of a battle for regional peace. He emphasized that the country is fighting against actions that jeopardize regional peace, destabilize the region, and put regional progress at risk.

He compared the current situation to 1942, emphasizing that his country will stand strong in protecting its sovereignty, rights, and jurisdiction. He made it clear that no foreign power will be allowed to encroach on even a small piece of their territory.

It was evident that his remarks were directed towards China, even though he did not explicitly mention the country by name.

Beijing has been exhibiting more aggressive behavior in the South China Sea, where it is involved in territorial disputes with Manila. This escalation in actions has been observed since Marcos assumed the presidency almost two years ago, succeeding the more China-friendly Rodrigo Duterte.

According to Manila, China's coast guard has been frequently harassing Philippine fishing vessels in the productive waters near Scarborough Shoal. The most recent incident occurred on February 22. Additionally, Chinese forces have also used water cannons on Philippine ships that were resupplying a military outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal.

Amid these escalating actions, Marcos has been open about his efforts to gather support from allies against China. This is because Manila's navy is lacking in manpower, funding, and equipment, making it a mismatch in comparison to China's navy, which is the largest globally. Additionally, China is also accused of using a militia known as the "little blue men" to assert its territorial claims.

A satellite view of the a floating barrier at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal on February 22, 2024. The Philippines accused China's coast guard of setting up the barrier at the mouth of the disputed fishing ground.

A floating barrier was spotted at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal on February 22, 2024, in a satellite view. The Philippines claimed that China's coast guard had placed the barrier at the opening of the contested fishing area. This information was provided by Maxar Technologies.

Marcos is fortunate because China claims most of the resource-rich 1.3 million square miles of the sea as its own, despite a ruling against this by an international tribunal in 2016. This has led to many people who may be supportive of Marcos's situation.

One of these supporters is the United States. Since Marcos became the leader, the US has been working to strengthen their relationship, which had suffered during the Duterte administration. They have made agreements to increase their presence in Philippine military bases.

This photo, taken on August 22, 2023, shows officers of the Philippine coast guard ship BRP Cabra observing a Chinese coast guard ship blocking their path. The incident occurred during a re-supply mission by a civilian boat chartered by the Philippine navy to deliver supplies to the Philippine navy ship BRP Sierra Madre in the disputed South China Sea. A team of AFP journalists on board the BRP Cabra witnessed the Chinese ship coming within several meters of their vessel. AFP was one of three media outlets given the rare opportunity to join the Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, less than three weeks after Chinese coast guard ships water cannoned a similar replenishment operation.

Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images

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Tensions are rising again in the South China Sea, and it is a matter of global importance.

Marcos recently gave a passionate speech to Australian lawmakers, indicating that he views Canberra as a possible ally in the South China Sea conflict. He is likely to bring up this issue at an upcoming summit between Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Melbourne. This meeting will also be attended by other countries with territorial disputes with China, such as Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia.

Most experts believe that Canberra is likely to be cautious about getting involved in sensitive issues concerning China, which is Australia's largest trading partner. This is because Australia's relationship with Beijing is still recovering from the trade restrictions imposed by China in 2020. These restrictions were a response to then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison's call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.

According to Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, Australia is unlikely to support any strong language at the summit regarding the South China Sea or any other contentious issue.

Australia aims to establish itself as a reliable regional partner for political, security, and economic collaboration. However, it is important for the country to avoid being caught in the middle of the competition between China and the US.

During the ASEAN meeting on Monday, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong revealed that Canberra plans to allocate $41.7 million (64 million Australian dollars) towards programs with ASEAN partners over the next four years.

The statement from Wong's office mentioned that the funds will be utilized to enhance Australia's maritime collaboration with neighboring countries and support the security and development of the region.

Partners, to some extent

Marcos’ visit to Australia has been quite successful. The two countries signed three agreements, one of which focuses on enhancing collaboration on maritime security by emphasizing the importance of following international law. Other agreements were made regarding cyber, critical technology, and competition law.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed that the cooperation between the two countries is a way to assert their national interests and acknowledge their regional responsibilities.

The agreements were based on the strong relationship that was already growing between Manila and Canberra. Last year, during Albanese's visit to Manila, the two countries upgraded their bilateral ties from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership. This visit marked the first time an Australian prime minister had visited the Philippines in 20 years.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivered a speech at the Australian parliament on February 29.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivered a speech at the Australian parliament on February 29.

AAP Image/Lukas Coch/Reuters

Experts believe that the growing partnership between Australia and the Philippines is primarily motivated by economic interests, tourism promotion, and technical collaborations rather than military ties. Although they recently conducted their first joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea in November, it is noted that Australia does not have a direct security obligation to the Philippines in case of a crisis in the disputed region.

On the other hand, the United States and the Philippines have a longstanding mutual defense treaty that dates back to the post-World War Two era.

Australia is hesitant to fully support regional militaries as it focuses on rebuilding its relationship with China. Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, pointed out that Australia values its partnership with ASEAN but wants to avoid appearing too aggressive in its approach.

Patton mentioned that Australia holds significance in Southeast Asia but is not a major influencer. He emphasized Canberra's cautious approach towards getting involved in maritime security conflicts.

Experts point out that Australia may not be as vocal as the US in addressing China's aggressive actions, but it is taking steps to strengthen its regional security alliances as a way to counter Beijing's increasing military presence.

Australia's top military focus remains on the Quad, which also includes the United States, Japan, and India. This group aims for a "free and open Indo-Pacific," but China sees it as a bloc that excludes them and goes against their interests.

Another agreement, AUKUS, involves the US and the UK helping Australia develop nuclear-powered submarines by the early 2040s. This alliance has also upset Beijing. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin expressed concerns that this pact would worsen the arms race, disrupt the global nuclear non-proliferation efforts, and harm peace and stability in the region.

Some experts suggest that Australia should be cautious in taking sides with the Philippines in the South China Sea, as it is already part of security pacts that have upset Beijing.

According to Nick Bisley, dean and professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia's foreign policy perspective is overly concerned about China. This is why Canberra is very careful in wording its military commitments in disputed areas.

As Bisley put it, “We don’t like what China does, but we’re not going to put ourselves in harm’s way.”

Editor's P/S:

The article presents a complex and evolving geopolitical situation in the South China Sea, where the Philippines is at the forefront of a battle for regional peace. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s recent address to the Australian Parliament highlights the country's determination to safeguard its sovereignty and jurisdiction against threats to regional stability. It is evident that China's aggressive actions in the disputed waters have prompted Marcos to seek support from allies, including Australia.

The article also sheds light on Australia's cautious approach towards involvement in the South China Sea conflict. While the country has expressed support for the Philippines through agreements on maritime security and other areas of cooperation, it remains hesitant to engage in direct military action due to its economic ties with China and its desire to avoid escalation. Australia's focus on rebuilding its relationship with China and its involvement in other regional security alliances, such as the Quad and AUKUS, further complicate its position on the South China Sea dispute.