Escalating China-Philippines maritime standoff may potentially involve US, analysts caution
China and the Philippines' maritime standoff in the South China Sea is intensifying, raising concerns that it could escalate into a conflict involving the world's two most powerful militaries Clashes between their vessels have reached a critical point, heightening the risk of casualties
Over the weekend, clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea have raised concerns that their standoff is escalating to a dangerous point where lives could be at risk. Analysts are warning that this could potentially lead to a direct conflict between the two most powerful militaries in the world.
"The escalating cycle is troubling," commented Ray Powell, the director of SeaLight, a project at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, which monitors maritime activities in the South China Sea.
Analysts described the clash on Sunday as the most serious of four publicized showdowns this year between China and the Philippines near Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese Coast Guard utilized water cannons to disable a Philippine boat, as they attempted to stop the delivery of supplies to the badly deteriorating ship, the Sierra Madre. This feature is claimed by China as its territory, but Philippine marines man an outpost on the grounded ship. Both countries acknowledge the attempted supply delivery.
The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea stated that a Chinese Coast Guard ship "used a water cannon on the Philippine supply vessels, resulting in extensive damage to their engines. This disabled the vessel and posed a serious threat to the lives of its crew."
A Chinese Coast Guard ship was seen using water cannons on a Philippine navy-operated supply boat M/L Kalayaan as it approached Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal, in the contested South China Sea on December 10, 2023. The incident was captured in a handout photo provided by the Philippine Coast Guard.
There were no injuries reported on Sunday, but the clash, which involved a collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels, demonstrates the potential for serious injuries or fatalities, according to Powell. Additionally, due to the mutual defense treaty between the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, fatalities among Filipinos could prompt a response from US forces.
US officials have consistently referred to the treaty in their public statements regarding the South China Sea, and the US State Department reaffirmed Washington's position following the clash on Sunday.
The HMCS Ottawa is seen firing its main gun at the Hammerhead remote training target while the USS Rafael Peralta and HMAS Brisbane sail in formation during a Surface Fire Exercise as part of a joint deployment in the South China Sea on October 26, 2023.
CNN embarked on an 11-day journey through some of the most fiercely disputed waters on the planet. Here's what we discovered: The United States' statement affirmed its support for the Philippines in response to these perilous and illegal actions.
The Foreign Ministry of China informed Washington that they have no authority in the dispute, asserting that no outside party has the right to get involved. Beijing asserts its "indisputable sovereignty" over nearly the entire South China Sea, which includes numerous features hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Taiwan also have conflicting claims.
Flashpoint outpost
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Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines and Renai Reef in China, is located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
In 1999, Manila deliberately ran the Sierra Madre aground at Second Thomas Shoal, a World War II-era former US Navy transport ship, and has since stationed Filipino marines on board to assert its sovereignty over the area. However, the deteriorating condition of the vessel has made it necessary for regular maintenance and repairs.
China's establishment of military installations on other disputed South China Sea territories dominated the headlines, causing the shoal situation to be largely overlooked. Meanwhile, the previous administration of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made efforts to establish new economic connections with Beijing.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who assumed office in 2022, has adopted a more assertive stance on Chinese territorial claims and bolstered military collaboration with Washington.
In September, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. emphasized the importance of Manila and the international community standing up against what he referred to as Chinese "bullying" in an interview with CNN.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro talks during an interview with CNN in Manila, Philippines on September 29, 2023.
Mark Phillips/CNN
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Beijing insists that Manila is unlawfully occupying the shoal and has accused the Philippines of violating China's sovereignty and putting Chinese vessels and personnel at risk. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, the Philippines has seriously violated China's sovereignty.
Analysts argue that Beijing appears to be the aggressor, with Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the US Pacific Commands Joint Intelligence Center, stating that "China's actions, appearance, and exposure all point to being a bully."
And Beijing is looking to press its claim, the analysts say.
The Philippine Coast Guard provided this photo showing a Chinese Coast Guard ship using its water cannons on a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel as it approaches Scarborough Shoal in the contested South China Sea on Saturday, December 9, 2023.
"Recent events suggest that the Chinese are attempting to identify vulnerabilities to take advantage of and push the boundaries of how far Washington would support its ally," stated Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, in an interview with CNN.
In a message on X (formerly Twitter), Koh mentioned that it might not require significant military action to activate the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty.
Koh wrote that when a water cannon attack results in physical damage, injury, or potentially death, it raises the question of whether it qualifies as an armed attack, regardless of whether firearms are used. He also noted that any resulting death may not have been intentional.
"Even if the Chinese try their best to avoid vertical escalation, what if theres an inadvertent loss of lives, or severe injuries? Will that qualify as armed attack?" Koh asked.
US involvement
Koh, Schuster, and others suggested that Washington may have allowed the situation to deteriorate, giving Beijing the confidence to continue pressuring Manila to withdraw its claims in the South China Sea. Eric Sayers, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, emphasized the necessity for Washington to take a more assertive stance against Beijing.
"They believe we won't because we largely haven't for the past 13 years since this behavior began," he wrote.
Schuster emphasized that Washington requires more than just State Department statements to deter China.
"He said that unless the US positions forces, Beijing will not hesitate to escalate the situation. These forces could involve direct US resupply of the grounded ship, the Sierra Madre, or joint escorts on Philippine resupply missions, Koh added."
A press conference regarding the recent acts of Chinese aggression and harassment in Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea was held in Manila on December 11, 2023.
Earvin Perias/AFP/Getty Images
And the resupply missions are vital, said Sayers.
Should Manila fail to receive adequate supplies for its ship at Second Thomas Shoal, there is a possibility of increased assertiveness from Beijing, according to him.
Sayers expressed concern about the state of the Sierra Madre. He questioned whether it needs ongoing maintenance or if there is a risk of it falling off the reef. He stated that such an event could potentially lead to further escalation and a change in the current situation.
Sayers cautioned that even amidst global conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, it is crucial for Washington to continue supporting Manila. He emphasized that the US must show that Asia is just as important as Europe and the Middle East.
Can Washington "walk and chew gum like my Euro-centric American friends insist?" is a question that needs a strong answer, he wrote.
