Approaching the Threshold: Global Warming Inches Closer to the World's Limit in 2023
2023 witnessed an unprecedented surge in global warming, surpassing previous records Startling data reveals a worrisome escalation in temperature rise, emphasizing the urgency to combat this alarming trend
In 2023, global warming reached 1.48 degrees Celsius according to data released on Tuesday, making it the hottest year on record and bringing the world within hundredths of a degree of a critical climate threshold. This marks a significant increase from 2016, previously the hottest year, with the average global temperature in 2023 reaching 14.98 degrees Celsius - 0.17 degrees above the previous record. Additionally, warming in the world's oceans also reached a new high.
In 2023, scientists were alarmed as consecutive heat records were broken, warning that the world is nearing the dangerous 1.5-degree limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. According to Copernicus, the EU's climate and weather monitoring agency, data and analysis indicate that global warming may intensify in the early months of this year, potentially exceeding 1.5 degrees over a 12-month period ending in January or February.
However, scientists are greatly concerned about the long-term impact of global warming at 1.5 degrees and above, rather than isolated instances. Once this threshold is surpassed, Earth's ecosystems will face challenges in adapting and in some locations, summer heat will reach levels that are near impossible for human survivability.
Copernicus reported that the extreme heat in 2023 was largely attributed to climate change, but was further intensified by the natural climate variability known as El Niño, which raises the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and typically leads to higher global temperatures.
Tourists shield themselves from the sunshine with umbrellas at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, capital of China, June 23, 2023.
Ju Huanzong/Xinhua/Getty Images
Worlds biggest polluter just had its hottest year on record, marked by deadly extreme weather
Some scientists have stated that the 1.48 degree increase in temperature aligns with the heat records of the previous year, while others are stunned by the significant rise in temperature in 2023 compared to previous years.
According to Bill Collins, a professor at the University of Reading in the UK, "It is astonishing that this year has unequivocally broken the global temperature record. There is no room for debate about minor temperature differences. Exceeding the previous record by 0.17 degrees should be a cause for concern for everyone."
In 2023, the global average temperature was consistently at least 1 degree higher than the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, marking the first time this has occurred. Historical data from Copernicus shows that global temperatures have been on the rise since the 1970s, with the first 1-degree increase recorded in 2015. Within just eight years, temperatures surged another half a degree above pre-industrial levels.
Even compared to the past three decades, when temperatures have been warmer, 2023 stands out. The year was 0.6 degrees Celsius hotter than the 1991-2020 average.
Temperatures rising more exponentially
A few months ago, the scientific community predicted that temperatures would increase by around 1.3 degrees in 2023, according to Liz Bentley, who serves as the chief executive of the UKs Royal Meteorological Society. However, this prediction has been proven wrong as temperature records have fallen on regional, national, and international levels. This includes both daily and monthly records, showing that other thresholds are being crossed as well. For the first time, two days in November were more than 2 degrees warmer than usual. From June to December, every month in 2023 was the hottest of its kind on record. Additionally, Copernicus reported that July and August were the first and second-warmest on record.
Bentley noted that while the 1.48-degree temperature rise was not unexpected according to climate projections, the pace of climate change in recent years has been surprisingly rapid. "It feels like its rising much more exponentially," he told CNN.
Annual average air temperatures were the highest, or close to the highest, ever recorded across all ocean basins and continents with the exception of Australia, according to data from Copernicus. This increase in temperature affects nearly the entire world. The year of intense heat, which brought about deadly extreme weather such as wildfires in Canada, Hawaii, and southern Europe, "has given us a glimpse of the climate extremes that are near the Paris targets," said Brian Hoskins, chair of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
He remarked that it is necessary to disrupt the complacency demonstrated by the majority of governments worldwide. Additionally, the Earth's oceans encountered historically high temperatures and remained unusually warm in 2023. The sea surface temperatures were 0.44 degrees higher than the 1991-2020 average, marking the highest on record and a significant increase from the 0.26-degree rise observed in 2016, the second-warmest year.
Fossil fuel pollution is the main long-term cause of the alarming heat in the oceans, but the recent El Niño event that began in July has also played a part. As sea surface temperatures rise, the potential for more powerful hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones increases.
At the end of the hottest year on record, nearly 200 countries gathered at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai last month and for the first time agreed to contribute to a global shift away from fossil fuels, the primary driver of the climate crisis. While the deal was largely praised, critics argue that it contains loopholes that could allow major fossil fuel-producing nations to take minimal action.
Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasized that the recent extremes observed are a stark reminder of how much the climate has deviated from the environment in which our society was established. This has significant implications for the Paris Agreement and all human activities. To effectively address climate risks, urgent decarbonization of the economy and proactive use of climate data and expertise are essential for future preparation.
