Analysis: The Impending UK General Election and Rishi Sunak's Political Future

Editor’s Note: Holly Thomas is a writer and editor from London. She currently works as the morning editor at Katie Couric Media and can be found on Twitter @HolstaT. The opinions shared in this commentary belong to the author. For more opinions, visit CNN.

On Wednesday, amidst a day of intense speculation and unusually bad weather, the Conservative Prime Minister of Britain, Rishi Sunak, faced the London rain to reveal that a general election is scheduled for July 4.

Westminster journalists reacted predictably to the news, with some expressing disappointment about being on holiday while others joked about the Tories also being away. The irony of the date, July 4, was not lost on many, with the thought of a country potentially rejecting a careless British government on Independence Day sparking imaginations.

For those not closely following Westminster politics, the announcement may have felt more like a last breath than a fresh start. Reporters, like lawmakers, often view events through a political lens. In the coming weeks, much will likely be written about Sunak's time as prime minister, as it seems his time in office may be coming to an end.

Comparisons have been made between Keir Starmer, the current Labour leader, and past leaders like Tony Blair. Some say Starmer will need to achieve a landslide victory like Blair did to secure a majority in parliament. However, for many people, the focus is not on Westminster politics but on the impact of 14 years of Conservative rule on the country.

Sunak was required to call a vote by January.

Sunak was required to call a vote by January.

Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

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Life in the UK seems considerably tougher for the majority of people compared to 2010, especially when it comes to the economy and health care.

Starting with health care, the situation is concerning. In England, as of January 2024, one out of every 20 individuals has to wait a minimum of four weeks to see a general practitioner. The wait time gets even worse if a hospital visit is required. Recent data from the British Medical Association (BMA) revealed that in April 2024, the number of patients waiting over 12 hours for emergency admission was approximately 95 times higher than in April 2019. This delay is attributed to patients not being discharged promptly due to the strain on the social care system, leading to a lack of available space for them.

Outside the emergency room, the situation is not improving. More than 7.5 million people are waiting for consultant-led elective care, with over 3.2 million waiting more than 18 weeks for treatment according to the BMA. The organization also highlighted the lack of resources for treating patients with mental illnesses, due to a shortage of trained staff and a fragmented system hindering effective management. Shockingly, a 2023 BBC analysis revealed that two-thirds of maternity units in the UK are not considered safe, based on Care Quality Commission records.

The severity of the situation may lead many Britons to consider seeking private treatment, despite paying taxes for healthcare. However, unlike Sunak, who is worth an estimated £651 million ($828 million) along with his wife Akshata Murty, most of us cannot afford such an option.

TOPSHOT - Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak holds a Q&A with staff of a West William distribution centre in Ilkeston in the East Midlands on May 23, 2024 as part of a campaign event ahead of a general election on July 4. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of Britain and leader of the Conservative Party, engaged in a question and answer session with the staff of a distribution centre in Ilkeston, East Midlands on May 23, 2024. This event was part of his campaign activities leading up to the general election scheduled for July 4. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

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Have you ever wondered why the UK decided to hold a snap July general election? The British economy has been struggling since the 2008 recession and many people still feel the effects. According to a recent article in the New Yorker by Sam Knight, the average British worker is estimated to be £14,000 ($17,800) worse off per year compared to pre-crisis earnings.

Putting things into perspective, the average salary in the UK is estimated to be £28,000 ($35,600) before tax, according to The Evening Standard. In comparison, the average cost of a property in the UK is £299,000 ($380,200) and the average monthly rent is £1,223 ($1,555) as reported by Zoopla. These numbers almost double in London, as stated by Rightmove.

The challenging financial situation is not solely attributed to the recession. Brexit, led by the Tories, has significantly impacted the economy, resulting in a loss of nearly £140 billion ($178 billion) and nearly 2 million fewer jobs in the UK. Individually, Brexit has left the average Briton around £2,000 ($2,540) worse off in 2023, with the average Londoner facing a loss of nearly £3,400 ($4,323).

The pandemic certainly didn't make things any easier. Government data indicates that GDP dropped by a staggering 19.4% between April and June 2020, before bouncing back by 17.6% in the summer. Regardless of one's opinion on the government's handling of Covid-19, it's clear that the global crisis was beyond anyone's control. However, the blame can be placed on Liz Truss.

In 2022, Truss became the fourth consecutive Tory Prime Minister in Britain, and the second to take office without a popular vote. During her brief 45-day term, she caused more harm than anyone could have imagined. Her ill-fated mini-budget resulted in a £30 billion loss for the UK economy that autumn, as reported by the independent think tank Resolution Foundation, leading to a sharp increase in interest rates.

For the millions of people who had to decide between food and heating during the winter, this was the final insult from a government that has consistently ignored their well-being.

This is the main point. It's not just that the past 14 years have made British people poorer and more susceptible in many ways. It's also the fact that no matter how difficult things become, there is never any sense of humility or responsibility from the party in charge.

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A clear example of this was when news broke that Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his team were throwing illegal parties in Number 10 while the country was in lockdown. The fact that Johnson lied to parliament about these events only made things worse for the many people who couldn't be with their dying loved ones, missed the birth of their children, and felt incredibly isolated for months.

School teachers are facing increasingly difficult working conditions. Traveling to some parts of the UK by train is more expensive than going on a holiday to Europe. The government's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, costing £370 million ($471 million), has been criticized by human rights experts both at home and abroad. The common thread among these issues is a Tory government that has been in power for so long that they seem to have forgotten the need to earn it.

While Starmer is different from Blair and Labour is not generating the same excitement as in 1997, their main advantage in the upcoming election is not their political appeal. It is the complacency of the Tory party, which has been ruling for over a decade and a half without addressing the concerns of the British people.

Editor's P/S:

The article by Holly Thomas paints a bleak picture of the current state of the United Kingdom under 14 years of Conservative rule. The healthcare system is in shambles, with long wait times for appointments and a shortage of resources. The economy is struggling, with the average worker earning £14,000 ($17,800) less per year than before the 2008 recession. Brexit has also had a negative impact, costing the UK nearly £140 billion ($178 billion) and resulting in nearly 2 million fewer jobs. The government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has also been criticized, with the Resolution Foundation estimating that Liz Truss's ill-fated mini-budget cost the UK economy £30 billion.

Thomas argues that the main problem with the Conservative Party is not its policies, but its complacency. The party has been in power for so long that it has forgotten the need to earn the support of the British people. This is evident in the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his team throwing illegal parties while the country was in lockdown. It is also evident in the government's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, which has been criticized by human rights experts both at home and abroad.