Analysis: The Impact of ICC's Actions on Netanyahu's Strategy

Peter Bergen, who is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast “In the Room With Peter Bergen” on Apple and Spotify, shares his own opinions in this commentary. For more opinions, visit CNN.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may soon join the ranks of controversial figures like the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi and Russian President Vladimir Putin as prosecutors for the International Criminal Court are seeking a warrant for his arrest.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is similar to the Nuremberg trials after World War II, as it prosecutes individuals for war crimes. Since its establishment in 2002, the ICC has only managed to secure 10 convictions. Despite the slow pace of justice, the ICC continues to work towards holding individuals accountable for their actions.

Charging Netanyahu has the potential to significantly impact the ongoing war in Gaza.

This development holds greater personal significance for Netanyahu than the allegations of genocide against Israel brought by South Africa in December at the International Court of Justice.

According to Joan Donoghue, the then-president of the ICJ, an interim judgment from the court recognized that Palestinians have "plausible" rights to protection from genocide. Israel has strongly denied committing genocide in Gaza in the ongoing case.

If the International Criminal Court were to approve the arrest warrant, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would find himself unable to travel to most countries. This would effectively make him a pariah.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would effectively become a pariah who wouldn't be able to travel to most countries if the International Criminal Court were to approve the arrest warrant.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan informed CNN's Christiane Amanpour that the charges against Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant include causing extermination, starvation as a method of war, denying humanitarian relief supplies, and deliberately targeting civilians in conflict. In response, Netanyahu criticized Khan as a prominent antisemite in contemporary times.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is currently in the process of requesting arrest warrants for three key leaders of Hamas. However, it is important to note that this action may not significantly impact the Islamist group. This is because Hamas is already classified as a terrorist organization by numerous countries, such as the United States and the European Union.

Smoke billows during Israeli strikes in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 13, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)

Smoke rises in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 13, 2024, as Israel carries out airstrikes in response to the conflict with Hamas, a Palestinian militant group. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)

The image captures the intensity of the situation between Israel and Hamas, highlighting the ongoing violence in the region.

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One of the Hamas leaders, Yahya Sinwar, is suspected of being the mastermind behind the October 7 attack on Israel. It is believed that he is currently hiding underground in the tunnels beneath Gaza.

There are 124 countries that are part of the ICC, but the United States and Israel are not included. If the court were to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, those 124 countries would be obligated to arrest him. The decision on Khan's application for the arrest warrants will be made by a panel of ICC judges.

Israel's allies like the United Kingdom and Germany are part of the ICC, so they would have to follow the court's decision if a warrant is issued. This could strain their relationships with Netanyahu, as he would be seen as an international outcast unable to visit many countries. France and Belgium have already shown support for the ICC's request for Netanyahu's arrest warrant.

Palestinian children stand in a camp for displaced people in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip in April.

Palestinian children stand in a camp for displaced people in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip in April.

AFP/Getty Images

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If Netanyahu's arrest warrant is approved, it would mean that Israel, a sovereign state defending itself, could be compared to Hamas. Despite causing casualties among Palestinians, Israel acted in self-defense after Hamas initiated the conflict with attacks that resulted in the deaths of about 1,200 people.

In response to the ICC's attempt to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, there has been opposition in the United States. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the ICC, calling it a rogue court disconnected from morality and justice. President Joe Biden also condemned the call for an arrest warrant, labeling it as "outrageous."

But you can't have it both ways. In 2023, when the ICC and its lead prosecutor, Khan, issued an arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, there were cheers from both supporters and critics.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a conference in Jerusalem, on February 18.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a conference in Jerusalem, on February 18.

Ronen Zvulun/Reuters/File

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Biden and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham both support the ICC arrest warrant for Putin, with Biden stating that Putin has committed war crimes and Graham calling it a step in the right direction for the international community.

The possible arrest warrant for Netanyahu could lead to increased awareness among the Israeli public about the situation in Gaza. Due to self-censorship by the Israeli media, Israelis are not seeing the full extent of the destruction and civilian casualties in Gaza, unlike the rest of the world.

The potential ICC arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders could make the negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, as well as a ceasefire, even more challenging. Don't forget to sign up for our weekly newsletter for updates!

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I am currently at the Global Security Forum in Qatar. Qatar has been actively mediating between the United States, Israel, and Hamas' political leaders in Qatar to secure the release of over 100 hostages in Gaza, including eight Americans and around 30 bodies.

The consensus among the conference delegates, who are security experts from various countries, is that the negotiations have hit a roadblock.

The ICC's decision to request an arrest warrant for Netanyahu could make him even more determined to keep fighting in Gaza for an extended period. In a speech to his country on Monday, Netanyahu reassured that the ICC's actions would not stop Israel from achieving "total victory" against Hamas, as reported by The Times of Israel.

Editor's P/S:

The potential arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court (ICC) has sparked a heated debate. Some argue that it is a necessary step to hold him accountable for alleged war crimes in Gaza, while others see it as a biased and politically motivated move. If the warrant is approved, it could significantly impact Netanyahu's ability to travel internationally and further strain Israel's relationships with its allies.

The ICC's investigation into Netanyahu stems from allegations of causing extermination, starvation, and deliberately targeting civilians