Netanyahu's Triple Mission: Hamas' Demise, Hostages' Return, and Reelection Bid
Israel's dual mission in Gaza: Crush Hamas, secure the release of hostages, and secure Netanyahu's reelection bid The latest objective of the ongoing conflict comes to light amidst renewed tensions
The criticism of Israel's military actions in Gaza, including from the United Nations, NGOs, and influencers, has been plentiful. Even US President Joe Biden has condemned the "indiscriminate bombing." However, Israel's stated war aims, including the destruction of Hamas to prevent a repeat of the October 7 massacre and the return of remaining hostages, are seen as consistent and unwavering.
Other goals include restoring deterrence against Israel's adversaries and providing reassurance to Israelis that the state can continue to defend them. However, a new objective has emerged in recent days: securing the reelection of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
About a week ago, there was a growing demand in the US for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take control of post-war Gaza, which is administered by the Israeli-occupied West Bank. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu responded by stating "Not on my watch." In his remarks to lawmakers, he blamed the Oslo Accords for causing as many deaths as Hamas' October 7 massacre, though over a longer period, despite having previously committed to honoring the agreements as a foundation for discussions on a potential Palestinian state.
Later in the day, Netanyahu, whose image as "Mr. Security" has been severely damaged and whose approval has dropped, made another statement. He said, "Gaza will not be ruled by Hamas or Fatah," referring to Fatah, the leading Palestinian faction that played a key role in the Oslo Accords and still governs the PA, which oversees areas of the West Bank occupied by Israel.
His ambassador to the UK was even clearer: When Sky News asked Tzipi Hotovely if Israel supports a two-state solution, she replied: "The answer is absolutely no."
Smoke is seen billowing during an Israeli bombardment on northern Gaza, near the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on December 11, 2023, amid ongoing conflicts between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (Photo by Menahem KAHANA / AFP) (Photo by MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images)
Israel is considering building a humanitarian compound in northern Gaza once the fighting stops. "All Jewish Israelis agree that Hamas needs to be dismantled," says Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), in an interview with CNN. "Netanyahu needs to find a new reason to stay relevant, so he's revisiting the Oslo process." Plesner expresses justified skepticism about any solution that would compromise Israel's security interests and believes Netanyahu is trying to portray himself as the protector of those interests. This is seen as a clever political move.
Plesner laments that the actions come at the expense of the national interest and believes there aren't significant differences in how the US, Europe, and Israel view the end of the war or the immediate interim stage. The British and German foreign ministers call for a "sustainable ceasefire," but Plesner sees this as irrelevant and solely for Netanyahu's political gain. Author Anshel Pfeffer also criticizes Netanyahu's actions as squandering international support and picking a fight with Biden to save his political career.
The fate of Netanyahu's future is likely to be determined sooner rather than later. A recent survey by Plesner's IDI has revealed that nearly 70% of Israelis are in favor of holding new elections once the conflict with Hamas comes to an end. Adding to Netanyahu's concerns, the survey also indicates that 31% of Likud voters are considering voting for a different party in the next election, with 16% of them considering switching to a different political bloc altogether.
Netanyahu has faced doubt in the past and has always proven his critics wrong. However, following the blame placed on him for the failures that led to the October 7 events, he appears unable to achieve one of his main goals: bringing the hostages home. Despite the government's week-long truce with Hamas resulting in the release of 110 hostages and 240 Palestinian prisoners, only one rescue attempt, that of female soldier Ori Megidish, has been successful. Numerous other rescue attempts have failed, leading to the unfortunate deaths of three Israeli hostages by the IDF.
Prior to the aforementioned disaster, IDI discovered that only about one-third of Israelis believe it is possible to rescue the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages. This tragedy could impede Netanyahu's efforts to achieve his other wartime goal of dismantling Hamas. Over the weekend, thousands of demonstrators gathered at the now-renamed "Hostages Square" in Tel Aviv, demanding that the prime minister and his administration take greater action to bring their family members back home and prioritize this issue over the destruction of Hamas.
In the end, Netanyahu will likely prioritize whatever allows him to remain in power. "It's not just about having power," states Plesner. "He believes he plays a significant role in Israeli and Jewish history. His legacy is of utmost importance, and he wouldn't want it to be tarnished by the October 7 attack." However, whether he likes it or not, it is highly likely that this event will define his legacy.
