Zelensky confronts daunting challenge prior to Washington meetings
Fate of billions in aid for Ukraine hangs in balance as President Zelensky prepares for crucial meetings in Washington with senators and House Speaker Mike Johnson Uncertainty looms over remaining funds, key issues to watch, and progress on border talks
Billions in aid for Ukraine are still hanging in the balance on Monday morning, despite President Volodymyr Zelensky's planned pitch to senators and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday. Zelensky's visit to Washington, his third since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is not expected to change the current dynamic in Washington. It appears that Republicans, even those in support of providing more funding for Ukraine, are reluctant to act unless Democrats and the White House agree to major policy changes on the US southern border.
The White House is facing a challenging moment as it repeatedly emphasizes the critical nature of President Zelensky's fight for Democracy. However, the Biden administration may struggle to fulfill promised resources if the ongoing, lengthy immigration battle does not produce a solution quickly. It is probable that Congress will adjourn this week without passing further aid, resolving border policy, or developing a plan to secure funding amidst forthcoming challenges such as government spending, an impeachment inquiry, and the presidential election.
How much money is actually left?
According to a recent CNN report, the administration has identified approximately $2 billion that can still be allocated by the US. The presidential drawdown authority still holds $4.8 billion, which is primarily being used to supply existing US stockpiles to Ukraine. However, there is only about $1 billion remaining to replenish these stockpiles. Additionally, there is approximately $1 billion left in intelligence and defense surveillance funds.
What to watch
Zelensky's important meetings on Capitol Hill with Senators: Senators are well-informed about the situation on the battlefield, Ukraine's desperate needs, and the potential impact of congressional inaction on the future of democracy in Europe and globally. This was the focus of a classified briefing last week and is a topic that leaders on both sides acknowledge. Republicans such as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, GOP Whip John Thune, and other leaders like Sen. John Cornyn of Texas frequently discuss it, but it has had little effect on their stance that border security must be included in any additional aid package. Will there be a shift, a softening, or a change? Not likely. Will it change the Democrats' view on what they are willing to concede on border issues? Only time will tell.
The most important meeting on Tuesday will be between Johnson, the newly appointed speaker, and Zelensky. Last time Zelensky was in Washington, Kevin McCarthy was the speaker. Worried about facing criticism from conservatives, McCarthy avoided being seen with Zelensky and had Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries escort him to the meeting. Shortly after, McCarthy lost his position. The speaker may be new, but the internal dynamics within the GOP conference have not changed.
Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida tweeted on Sunday, "America has already given enough money to Ukraine. We should advise Zelensky to seek peace."
Johnson's support for increased aid to Ukraine comes with a steep price for putting it on the House floor, which he has conveyed to Senate leaders. A meeting with Zelensky is unlikely to change the current dynamics, as Johnson's insistence on strong border security and the potential loss of GOP votes pose significant obstacles. However, this presents a significant opportunity for Zelensky to establish a rapport with a speaker who still holds sway within his conference and holds the ultimate decision-making power regarding US aid to Ukraine - crucial for the country's survival.
State of border talks
Senate negotiators persisted in discussions over the weekend, however, the Sunday shows revealed that no significant progress had been made. According to aides who spoke to CNN, there were no major breakthroughs. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut stated on NBC, "We are still in the room trying to address Republican demands. We refuse to enshrine Donald Trump's immigration policies into law. It would be detrimental to the country."
Senator James Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator, acknowledged that progress has been made but emphasized the need to make a decision and take action to support the nation.
The lack of a decisive moment indicates that a deal is not imminent, and it is unlikely that lawmakers will remain in Washington to pass a supplemental. If negotiators are not close to reaching a final agreement, it is almost certain that lawmakers will leave by the end of the week unless there is a last-minute effort by leadership to keep them in order to make progress.
According to sources, the remaining proposals on the table are too conservative for Democrats to accept, as reported by CNN on Friday. The GOP demands include a significant crackdown on the administration's use of parole and a new national expulsion authority similar to Covid-era restrictions at the US-Mexico border. Additionally, Republicans are looking to implement a policy that would prevent individuals from seeking asylum in the US if they passed through a "safe third country" where they could have applied for asylum.
