Ukrainian Aid at Risk: US House Speaker Ousted, Funds Dwindling

The ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the US Congress has further complicated the already tumultuous process of Washington's military and financial support for Ukraine amid their ongoing battle against Russia with minimal progress on the frontlines.

With the absence of a Speaker, the House is unable to approve new legislation, leaving the fate of America's military assistance to Kyiv uncertain until a successor is elected, which may take a week or longer.

Following a weekend agreement to extend government funding for 45 days, McCarthy's removal was voted on. However, this agreement did not include provisions for fresh aid to Ukraine, leaving the Biden administration's $24 billion request in limbo and the coffers dangerously low.

President Joe Biden expressed his expectation that McCarthy would honor his commitment to secure the passage and support necessary to aid Ukraine in defending themselves against aggression and brutality. McCarthy has lost his role and announced he will not run for Speaker again. Although it is unclear who may succeed him, there are skeptical potential candidates who question the continuation of support for Ukraine at current levels.

A Ukrainian soldier practices with an American-donated machine gun at a training ground in Eastern Ukraine.

Vasco Cotovio/CNN

Touting American-made guns, frontline Ukrainian soldiers fear potential loss of US military support

McCarthy issued a warning, stating that there are many inquiries from our members, particularly regarding the accountability measures associated with the allocation of funds.

The current chaos in Washington exacerbates the concerns faced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Additionally, former pro-Russia Prime Minister Robert Ficos populist party in Slovakia recently won parliamentary elections, pledging to halt the supply of weapons to Ukraine and impede its aspirations to join NATO. Moreover, a disagreement over grain exports with Poland, which has been a longstanding and loyal ally to Kyiv, has prompted Warsaw to caution that it may cease arms deliveries to its neighboring country.

Money and weapons run low

Ukraine's expenditure on equipment, munitions, and maintenance in the ongoing conflict with Russia is estimated to be around $2.5 billion per month by many analysts, potentially slightly exceeding this amount. A significant portion of the financial support for these expenses is provided by Washington.

Last week, Michael McCord, the Chief Financial Officer of the Pentagon, informed Congressional leaders about the depletion of funds for Ukraine. In a letter made public by House Democrats, McCord stated that the Pentagon had approximately $5.4 billion remaining in its presidential drawdown authority, enabling the swift deployment of weapons from current inventories. In essence, this amount equates to approximately two months' worth of funding.

McCord further cautioned that out of the total $26 billion granted by Congress for the replacement of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine, only $1.6 billion remains accessible.

The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) pipeline is already depleted. Congressional leaders were informed by McCord that a lack of funding for USAI could hinder the department's ability to procure necessary 155 mm artillery and crucial munitions, which are vital for the success of Ukraine's armed forces.

In his correspondence, McCord emphasized that without immediate additional funding, assistance to meet Ukraine's urgent needs, such as air defense and ammunition, would have to be postponed or reduced. These requirements are of utmost importance as Russia gears up for a winter offensive and persistently bombards Ukrainian cities.

Max Bergmann, Director of Europe and Russia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, stated that the turmoil in the House has put Ukraine in a precarious state of uncertainty. It is crucial to understand that if the funding bill is not approved by the US Congress, Ukraine will face severe consequences. The potential loss of numerous Ukrainian lives and a significant hindrance to their ability to continue the fight are imminent.

In the Donetsk region of Ukraine on September 13, 2023, a Ukrainian serviceman retaliates against Russian troops by operating a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer.

The NATO official warns that the stocks of Western ammo have reached their lowest point as the Ukraine war continues. Bergmann stated on X, formerly known as Twitter, that without funding, the US will be unable to efficiently provide support to the Ukrainian forces.

He further observed that the drawdown authority, previously increased to $14.5 billion, significantly dwindled to $100 million on October 1, representing a minuscule amount. The current funding, partially enhanced by devaluing the equipment being dispatched, implies that there is barely sufficient funding to cover the remaining period of the calendar year.

However, for Ukraine's military planners, the uncertainty poses a great challenge as they attempt to strategize for a winter offensive or determine the optimal locations for air defenses. Furthermore, Bergmann and other experts have cautioned that if US funding decreases or is delayed, European nations will be unable to compensate for the shortfall. NATO officials have also issued warnings about the already depleted inventories.

According to Bergmann, European militaries have empty warehouses due to years of under-investment, and they do not have much to offer. He suggests that Europeans should focus on revitalizing their industries, which will require time. Additionally, Bergmann warns that abruptly ending funding to Ukraine would have catastrophic consequences, leaving it vulnerable in the battleground. He further points out that the United States will lose credibility with allies worldwide.

The funding of Ukraines war effort by the US has thus far amounted to $113 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid since the Russian invasion. 

Incident or systematic?

Ukrainian officials in Kiev have attempted to remain positive despite any potential delays in Western aid. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba responded to the news that aid to Ukraine was not included in the recent temporary funding measure, stating that it is important to determine whether this incident is an isolated event or part of a larger trend.

"I think it was an incident," he said.

And on Wednesday, Ukraines ambassador in Washington said the embassy has a good dialog with the "vast majority" of likely candidates to replace McCarthy.

On Facebook, Oksana Markarova mentioned that numerous individuals have already been brought up in discussions, however, it is premature to focus on any specific candidates. Markarova stated that constructive dialogues have been established with a majority of the mentioned names and their respective teams. She also emphasized that the Ukrainian Embassy in the USA is actively collaborating with caucuses, committees, individual congressmen, and the Senate to address Ukraine's requirements and explore potential solutions for the upcoming aid package.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged a global front against Russian aggression in a dramatic speech delivered last month during the UN General Assembly.

Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

But a senior adviser to Zelensky criticized "Western conservative elites" for suggesting that military aid to Ukraine should be suspended.

On X Wednesday, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the president's office, questioned the motivations of Western conservative elites who advocate for the suspension of military aid to #Ukraine. He wondered why they are opposed to weakening the Russian army, which has posed a threat to democracies for many years. He also questioned their resistance to significantly reducing Russia's capability to carry out destructive operations in various countries and continents.

In addition, Podolyak expressed curiosity about their desire for Russia to persist, learn from its mistakes, enhance its military strength, revive its military-industrial complex, and explore new opportunities to attack other nations and their respective armed forces, including their own.

Podolyak did not mention the suspension of US aid to Ukraine in the temporary spending measure passed by Congress over the weekend, nor the removal of McCarthy on Tuesday evening. This report was made possible with the contribution of Maria Kostenko.