The Political Storm Brewing for Zelensky in Washington: A Game-Changer

The hero worship of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his previous trip to Washington, where the blue-and-gold flag was draped, reminiscent of Winston Churchill's resistance against Nazism, was forgotten on Thursday. During his latest visit, Zelensky and his hosts experienced some unpleasant lessons about each other as the chances of achieving ultimate victory in the war against Russia appear to be growing more remote.

Zelensky experienced a sudden preview of the potential consequences if Donald Trump were to return to power after the 2024 election, as well as the potential damage caused by the ex-president's influence over the unruly Republican-led House of Representatives. This influence could rupture the crucial financial support that Ukraine relies on for its survival. However, instead of approving a new $24 billion request from the administration to sustain Ukraine's war efforts, the disorganized House failed once again on Thursday to even fund the defense of the United States. A new attempt to pass a military appropriations bill was derailed by strong opposition from the far-right.

On the other hand, Americans witnessed the draining effects of a brutal war on a leader who had shown admirable resistance to a Russian invasion. However, this leader also carried the weight of months of death and sacrifice endured by his people. At times, the comedic actor-turned-wartime hero appeared exhausted and devoid of smiles. During a CNN interview, he candidly admitted the personal toll of being Russia's primary target.

Zelensky's patience sometimes wore thin in public appearances, particularly when criticizing the United Nations for its failure to protect its members from aggression. However, his usual tactics of quoting President Franklin Roosevelt and referencing 9/11 may no longer be enough to sway lawmakers in a US capital that has shifted ideologically since his last visit in late 2022.

There is also a concern that Zelensky's relentless efforts to shame the world into action may no longer produce the desired results. Even the president himself appears to acknowledge this, as he expresses gratitude for previous assistance, knowing that more Americans are becoming skeptical of providing aid to Ukraine. As Ukraine faces a second impeachment saga and becomes a central issue in the upcoming general election, Zelensky may need to acquire new political skills to navigate the increasingly vicious landscape of American politics.

A warm welcome in the Oval Office

In the Oval Office, Biden reassured Zelensky of unwavering US support, emphasizing the immense courage displayed by the Ukrainian people. "Mr. President, without any exaggeration, the people of Ukraine have demonstrated remarkable bravery," Biden conveyed. "In collaboration with our partners and allies, the American people are resolute in their commitment to stand by your side and provide every possible assistance."

Zelensky profusely expressed his gratitude to Biden for the support of the United States in the fight against Russian terrorism. He also extended his thanks to the people of Poland after their government announced they would cease providing arms to Ukraine due to a disagreement over Ukrainian grain imports. Analysts in both the US and Ukraine speculate that this decision is driven by political tensions leading up to Poland's upcoming election, and is unlikely to result in a long-term strain between the allies.

Biden announced another aid package for Ukraine, valued at $325 million, which is expected to include additional cluster munitions and air defense equipment, as stated by two US officials. This marks the second time that the US has supplied Kyiv with these controversial weapons.

Ukraine faced disappointment when national security adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that the US would not currently be supplying long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). This decision underscores the limitations of assistance, even from President Biden, who has proven to be the most effective leader of the Western alliance since the Cold War.

The president has consistently aimed to strike a balance between providing US weapons and avoiding a potential conflict between NATO and Russia, a nuclear superpower, which could escalate into a larger war. Nonetheless, his critics argue that he has been slow in delivering weapons systems, and that the aid offered to Ukraine only focuses on ensuring its survival rather than enabling a comprehensive defeat of Russia.

Zelensky can find reassurance upon returning to Kyiv amidst a relentless Russian attack that coincided with his visit to the US. With the presence of Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by his side, Zelensky engaged in a bipartisan meeting with senators. The meeting covered updates on the ongoing war and Zelensky's determined fight against corruption, which is one of the concerns voiced by some skeptics on Capitol Hill regarding significant aid grants. Nevertheless, Zelensky received the endorsement of his Republican supporters in the Senate.

North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the GOP leadership, stated that while Ukraine has had issues with corruption, parliament is actively addressing the problem. In December 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi displayed a large Ukrainian flag in support of the Ukrainian president during his address to Congress. However, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy did not publicly appear with President Zelensky, although he did meet with him privately and have a photo taken.

The speaker is currently in a confrontation with his most far-right conservative members. This situation could potentially lead to a government shutdown next week. The speaker stated that there is not enough time for a joint session with the Senate to listen to a speech from Zelensky. Additionally, he refused to commit to voting on the $24 billion package for Ukraine and expressed his belief that Biden should show more concern towards immigration issues at the Southern border.

"Our main focus should be on addressing our country's fiscal matters. I am open to considering other issues, but it is important to acknowledge that we have recently experienced a significant influx of 10,000 people crossing our border. Ignoring this issue does not seem appropriate when there are other priorities to address."

Republican hostility on Ukraine aid

McCarthy is spearheading a conference comprising numerous pro-Trump members who are replicating the former president's animosity towards providing further assistance to Ukraine. Trump, if nominated as the Republican candidate and successfully secures the 2024 presidential election, has made a commitment to resolve the conflict within 24 hours - a vow that is likely to be well received by Putin, whom he has consistently sought to impress.

The 2024 GOP primary race has been divided by the issue of support for Ukraine. Nikki Haley, former US Ambassador to the UN, defended the country's aid at a campaign event in New Hampshire, stating, "A thug invaded a nation that is pro-American and values freedom."

But Vivek Ramaswamy, an up-and-coming Republican candidate who aligns more closely with the populist nationalism that resonates within the modern GOP, has stated that he will not hesitate to address Zelensky directly on issues of corruption, restrictions on free speech, and religious freedom.

These divisions highlight the ongoing internal battle within the Republican Party, as it grapples with defining its own principles. On one side are the traditional conservatives, while on the other are the foreign policy hawks who advocate for global democracy. Additionally, there is the "America First" approach, which prioritizes isolationism and led Trump to cultivate relationships with dictators such as Putin, while fiercely criticizing the Western alliance that Biden has revitalized to confront new challenges from Moscow.

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Some Trump supporters also have a personal dislike for Zelensky because of the phone call that led to Trump's first impeachment, where he attempted to pressure Ukraine to investigate Biden. Interestingly, Ukraine is now at the center of another impeachment scandal as Republicans investigate Biden for alleged financial benefit from his son's business dealings in the country.

Furthermore, pro-Trump senators refused to listen to Zelensky's pleas. Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance even skipped the meeting with Zelensky and used his military attire as a joke during a debate about Schumers decision not to enforce dress codes.

Vance expressed his disapproval of someone dressed like this being allowed into the Senate chamber. He shared his opinion on X (previously known as Twitter) and included a picture of Zelensky. However, it should be clarified that Zelensky addressed senators in the smaller, older Senate chamber used for ceremonial events, not the main one.

Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, who aligns with the pro-Trump faction of the GOP, described Zelensky as grateful and respectful. Nevertheless, he criticized the Biden administration for not establishing a clear objective to win the war.

"They are unaware. Their sole desire is to incessantly accrue more money," Hawley remarked.

His statement emphasizes a prevailing sentiment frequently expressed by Republican voters that the United States has entangled itself in an ongoing struggle, even in the absence of its own troops. Trump heightens these concerns by cautioning that Biden's support for Ukraine could potentially ignite a global conflict with Russia, leading to World War III.

The administrations policy has elicited skepticism, particularly due to the unsuccessful counter-offensive by Ukraine against Russia's invasion in heavily mined territory. Moreover, any prospects of a lasting peace deal are diminished by Ukraine's resolve to regain lost territories and Russia's track record of disregarding ceasefires in the region. In addition, there are incentives for Putin to prolong the war, as it is crucial for his prestige and his aspiration to revive Russia's sphere of influence. It is also possible that he may wait to ascertain whether a change in power in the White House could lead to President Trump's return and his willingness to end the war on Russia's terms.

Bidens commitment to remain by Zelensky's side "until the task is accomplished" may not be as unwavering as it previously appeared. As the largest conflict in Europe since World War II shows no signs of resolution, the future of Ukraine appears to be increasingly entwined with Biden's political future.