Why High Voter Turnout Could Benefit Donald Trump

Donald Trump is currently outperforming Joe Biden in the polls and is in a more favorable position than he has been at any point during the 2020 campaign. However, it is possible that these polls may be underestimating Biden's true position, as he may benefit when pollsters focus on likely voters rather than all registered voters.

In other words, Trump's prospects may improve in an election with higher voter turnout.

According to a recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, Trump had a 2-point lead among registered voters, while Biden was ahead by 2 points among likely voters. Although both results fall within the margin of error, the shift towards Biden is significant, with a 4-point difference between likely and registered voters.

I don't want to overemphasize one poll, but another pollster discovered a similar trend. The average of the last two Marquette University Law School surveys showed the former president leading by 4 points among registered voters, while Biden and Trump were tied among likely voters. Like the Times data, this shows a 4 point shift toward Biden when moving from registered to likely voters.

An October poll conducted by Ann Selzer at Grinnell College similarly found that 2020 Biden voters were 4 points more likely to say they would definitely vote compared to 2020 Trump voters.

This represents a significant departure from historical trends. Typically, Republicans see an increase of about 2 points when moving from registered to likely voters. However, it is also possible that the latest poll data is simply a result of statistical variation.

The 2024 polling makes sense when considering recent elections and the coalitions being formed by Biden and Trump for a potential rematch. Democrats have highlighted their success in special elections over the past year, with Democratic candidates outperforming Biden by about 4 points in special state legislative and federal elections in 2023 compared to those same districts in 2020.

Special elections typically experience lower turnout, in contrast to the Virginia state legislature elections held earlier in November. Control of both the House of Delegates and the state senate was in contention, with Democrats ultimately securing control of both. Despite this victory, it is worth noting that Virginia is a state that Biden won by a margin of 10 points in 2020. In the recent elections, Democrats narrowly defeated Republicans by less than 2 points in the popular vote for both houses, which is a difference of more than 8 points compared to Biden's performance in Virginia in 2020.

Similarly, the Republicans secured a 3-point lead in the House popular vote during the 2022 midterms, marking a 6-point shift from the Democrats' 3-point lead in the 2020 election. It is worth noting that midterms typically experience a much higher voter turnout compared to special elections.

Therefore, the question remains: why are the Republicans performing more favorably when voter turnout is higher?

Many Democrats remain deeply troubled by the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Since then, we have seen Democrats consistently outperforming in special elections. This may explain why there is evidence to indicate that Biden voters are more inclined to vote than Trump supporters in the present era, even when considering demographic factors.

When it comes to demographics, significant shifts in political alliances have occurred in recent years. One of the most prominent changes is the increasing reliance of the Democratic base on college-educated voters. It's worth noting that voter turnout and education are closely linked, as higher levels of education are associated with higher voter turnout.

Analysts often discuss education as a key factor in dividing the electorate, with a particular focus on White voters. It appears that this election cycle may be widening the education gap even further. Trump is currently polling better among Black and Hispanic voters than he did four years ago, and these groups are less likely to have a college degree compared to White voters.

Trump is enjoying more support from non-college educated voters of color compared to those with a college degree, while Biden continues to maintain strong support from White voters with a college degree. These factors are widening the education gap and leading to increased support for Trump among voters who are less likely to turn out in large numbers.

There's also a shift in demographics, with Trump performing better among young voters compared to four years ago. Younger voters are less likely to show up at the polls than older voters, so Biden may benefit from targeting older voters for turnout.

In conclusion, there's still much uncertainty about the 2024 election. However, if the current polling data holds true, many traditional theories about how turnout affects the election may be proven wrong.

Its just another thing to keep an eye out on as we enter what is sure to be a turbulent 2024.