Trump's Debate Dodge: A Legal Pandora's Box Awaits

Donald Trump will be absent from yet another Republican presidential debate on Wednesday evening, confident that he will face no repercussions for his nonattendance. His rivals within the Republican Party would not dare to disregard the event with such disdain and prioritize their own agendas. In this particular instance, Trump will be delivering a speech on the autoworkers dispute in Detroit, showcasing his focus on the forthcoming general election campaign well in advance of the initial primary votes.

The ex-president's unparalleled political skill of escaping consequences is now facing a serious legal challenge. A New York judge ruled that the ex-president and his adult sons are responsible for fraud, posing a significant threat to the future of the Trump Organization. This judgment comes just before the ex-president's upcoming four criminal trials. Despite this, Trump still holds the power to shape his political future. He has defied political norms, transforming his Republican Party and redefining the process of selecting presidents. By portraying himself as a victim of a weaponized government and justice system, he has managed to downplay the political consequences of his actions. His political influence has silenced GOP critics and built a cult-like following that shields him from attacks within the party. Years of undermining the credibility of US elections have convinced millions of his supporters that he is a victim of voter fraud.

The first Republican Presidential primary debate took place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on August 23, 2023. The event saw the participation of several notable figures including Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. The gathering of these influential individuals on the stage at Fiserv Forum was captured in this photograph taken by Christopher Dilts / Sipa USA (Sipa via AP Images).

Christopher Dilts/Sipa USA/AP/FILE

Will Trump's rivals repeat the mistakes of their first debate?

Trump faces minimal risk in boycotting the debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The library is dedicated to the former president, whose influence on the Republican Party was overshadowed by Trump's populist nationalism. Despite a month of campaigning, no candidate has emerged as a significant challenger to Trump's leading position in the primary polls. It is unlikely that any of his rivals in the debate, which essentially determines second place, would risk severe criticism against Trump that could undermine his support among GOP voters. Only candidates with low poll numbers, such as Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, who did not meet the RNC's criteria to participate, have strongly criticized Trump. While candidates like DeSantis and Haley have raised concerns about Trump's electability or specific issues like abortion, they have not directly attacked his growing extremism. Mike Pence, once a staunch supporter of Trump, has become more critical and has seen his campaign lose momentum.

Cassidy Hutchinson, an aide to former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, has exhibited more courage than most of the GOP in exposing Trump's misconduct on January 6. During an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Tuesday, timed with the release of her new book, Hutchinson discussed her astonishment at Trump's influence over his party. She specifically criticized Republican candidates who refuse to condemn Trump's actions, including those who will participate in the upcoming debate. Hutchinson expressed her confusion as to why these individuals find it so effortless to support Trump and accept his behavior. She argued that by doing so, they are essentially endorsing an assault on the Constitution, which contradicts core Republican and American values. Unfortunately, she noted that these are the types of candidates the nation can expect in the upcoming 2024 election.

More of the same from Trump, but worse

Trumps cloak of political impunity has been on display as hes barged back to the center of the political stage in recent days.

Any other former president who suggested that the outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, should be executed - like Trump did on social media last weekend - would be seen as a disgrace to the nation. However, Trump's latest display of hostility has gone largely unnoticed amidst his daily onslaught of controversial statements.

Trump's recent threat to manipulate the Justice Department in order to target his political adversaries if he regains the presidency would have been enough to disqualify most presidential candidates. Yet, it sparked only minimal reaction from Trump's fellow Republicans. Similarly, there was no response when the former president stated that he would use his presidential authority to initiate an investigation against the news network, MSNBC, for treason.

A rare challenge to Trumps impunity

The ex-president's ability to avoid the consequences of his actions is being severely tested. Recently, a judge in New York discovered that Trump and his sons, Eric and Donald Jr., had provided false financial statements for almost ten years. Simultaneously, a federal judge in Washington, DC is considering special counsel Jack Smith's request for a partial gag order on the former president, as he has been accused of attempting to poison the jury pool and intimidate witnesses.

These legal dramas are just the beginning of the ex-president's troubles. He is currently facing four trials and a total of 91 criminal charges. These charges are related to his alleged attempt to undermine the 2020 election, mishandling classified documents kept at Mar-a-Lago, and a hush money payment to an adult film actress prior to the 2016 election. Usually, the mere suggestion of criminal indictments is enough to force most politicians out of office. However, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez is defiantly resisting calls for his resignation amidst bribery charges.

And yet, the potential of Trump, who has been impeached twice, having a criminal record by November 2024 does not appear to be tarnishing his appeal among Republican voters. If anything, it seems to be having the opposite effect.

So why does Trump keep on getting away with it?

One reason for Trump's untouchability is the Republican Party's consistent failure to hold him accountable for his actions. Top officeholders are swayed by Trump's large support among his dedicated base, and they often face a dilemma between denouncing Trump or safeguarding their own political careers. GOP leaders who refuse to appease him, such as former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and now Utah Senator Mitt Romney, either find themselves ousted from Congress or conclude that running for public office is no longer worthwhile.

Trump's cult-like leadership style also attracts followers who indulge and emulate him. Recent examples include Republican firebrands like Florida Representative Matt Gaetz and Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The former president's political influence within the GOP base makes its leaders reluctant to go against him. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, for example, acknowledged that Trump bore responsibility for the January 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters. However, just days after Trump left the White House in disgrace, McCarthy traveled to Florida to mend his relationship with Trump—who helped him secure the speakership in January—but is now tormenting him by provoking House extremists to shut down the government.

Trumps magnetic personality has attracted numerous officials and political operatives to his inner circle, despite the consequences many have faced, such as being indicted for involvement in election meddling and the damage inflicted on their reputations. Figures like former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Meadows are prime examples.

Furthermore, the former president has successfully asserted that he is safeguarding his followers from a government conspiracy that would target them if he were to relent. In a social media post on Tuesday, Trump condemned the judgment against him in the New York fraud case, stating, "If they can do this to me, they can do this to YOU!" This argument has proven so potent that his polling and fundraising efforts have often shown resilience despite his multiple indictments.

Trump has successfully established a strong and unbreakable political base among voters who saw him as a representation of their disdain towards the political, financial, media, and legal establishments that they believed overlooked or looked down upon them. Ingeniously, Trump adopted a rebellious approach within his own administration, continuously challenging the very institutions that his supporters harbored mistrust towards. Consequently, his followers wholeheartedly embraced his subsequent unconventional actions, perceiving him as a target of unjust political persecution.