Twenty years ago this month, I was a young Marine lieutenant participating in a victory parade in California to celebrate our triumph in the Iraq War. We had successfully defeated Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi Army, and at that time, we believed the conflict had come to an end.
Seth Moulton
Seth Moulton
But of course, it was not. Twenty years later, American troops are still in Iraq.Â
Israel is on the verge of launching an offensive in Gaza, mirroring our initial objectives in Iraq: to vanquish the adversary, in Netanyahu's own words, to "crush and eradicate" Hamas. However, America's experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan underscored the importance of devising a strategy for the aftermath. In an iconic moment near the southern Iraqi city of Najaf, Colonel David Petraeus astutely questioned, "Explain to me the ultimate outcome of this operation...".
The following year, I found myself in the very city that Petraeus had conquered, attempting to reclaim it. This marked my second of four tours in Iraq, where we faced significantly more intense combat compared to the initial invasion.
By then, the insurgency had become firmly established, similar to the current situation with Hamas in Gaza. Our task was to engage in a painstaking block-by-block fight in order to eradicate it.
One summer day in 2004 serves as a stark reminder of the challenges faced and the importance of foresight. Our company was summoned to rescue an Army Special Forces team who had sustained significant casualties within a school. Once we successfully aided in the evacuation of the injured and deceased, my fellow Marines and I spearheaded an assault on the building with the backup of a Recon Marine platoon.
But facing opposition from insurgents who were throwing grenades from the rooftop and rolling them down the stairwell, our platoon sustained casualties. Consequently, I was compelled to make the arduous choice of withdrawing our platoon and requesting an air strike to demolish the structure.
Palestinians carry a person wounded in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, Gaza, on October 16.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Fragment Result:
The Geneva Conventions did not envision warfare with such consequences. Although it was necessary to eliminate insurgents without sacrificing more Marines, destroying a school does not contribute favorably to winning the support and trust of the people. It is crucial to remember that this particular structure, which was merely a two-story building, was believed to be unoccupied by civilians.
Now let's consider the situation in Gaza for comparison: a city that is five times larger, characterized by buildings that are ten times taller, and where Hamas fighters frequently employ human shields - including hostages from Israel, America, and other countries in various situations.
Furthermore, we must address the issue of what lies ahead. Following intense weeks of conflict in Najaf, our focus shifted towards the more intricate task of earning the trust and support of the remaining Iraqi population, thereby ensuring lasting peace.
Months of dedicated and monotonous effort went into various tasks such as job creation, Iraqi Army training, and the reconstruction of numerous structures, including the school I inadvertently demolished using a 500-pound bomb. This was all accomplished while striving to contain any remaining areas of insurgency.
Importantly, there exist significant disparities between Israel's conflict with Hamas and America's involvement in Iraq. Israel's response stems from an attack initiated by a terrorist organization from within, aiming to cause chaos in both Israel and the surrounding region. Conversely, a coalition of nations entered Iraq with the intention of overthrowing a brutal dictator whom we believed possessed weapons of mass destruction. Regrettably, this action led to the emergence of an insurgency.
In one scenario, the insurgency caused the conflict, while in the other scenario, the insurgency was the outcome. Nonetheless, there are valuable lessons to be learned that Israel should seriously consider. Dealing with the insurgency in Gaza is a significant responsibility for Israel, just as it was a challenge for the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Israel's military triumph in Gaza will already be difficult, but it is crucial for their government to outline their plan for the aftermath, specifically for the future of Gaza. Merely eliminating a significant number of Hamas terrorists and leaving Gaza in ruins would only perpetuate the same issue they are facing today, similar to what happened to the United States after our initial conquest of Najaf.
One of the key challenges in combatting terrorists as opposed to engaging with a conventional military force is the constant reminder of the counter-insurgency's fundamental equation: We must ensure that the number of insurgents being eliminated does not exceed the number being created.
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Palestinian residents are surveying the destruction inflicted upon their homes due to the Israeli airstrikes that occurred on October 14, 2023. As a precautionary measure, numerous citizens from Gaza have sought refuge in the southern regions, responding to the evacuation advisories issued by the Israeli government.
According to renowned US general Stan McChrystal, the ratio of "insurgent math" is ten to one: every innocent life taken results in the creation of ten new enemies. To give the Israeli Army the benefit of the doubt, let's assume they eliminate 1,000 Hamas fighters during the initial two weeks of intense combat, causing the accidental deaths of only 150 civilians – a generous estimate considering Hamas's ruthless disregard for innocent lives. However, Israel has now managed to recruit 50% more insurgents than they have eliminated.
This brings us back to the crucial starting point of any counter-insurgency campaign, as described by General Petraeus: getting the fundamental concepts right is imperative to achieve success.
Israel's leaders must confront these challenging and significant inquiries before thrusting more young lives, on both sides, into a merciless conflict:
- How do you plan to ascertain military success? (Simply counting the number of adversaries eliminated is insufficient.)
Your troops are eager to know the exit strategy in place.
What is the viable political resolution for the Gaza Strip? It is important to note that reverting back to the ineffective status quo is not an option.
If Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cannot provide satisfactory answers to these questions, they will be subjecting their young soldiers to another prolonged conflict, similar to the ones we experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unless they have a well-thought-out plan for post-war stability, they should be ready to justify to Israeli parents, two decades later, the purpose for which their children sacrificed their lives.
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During our time in Iraq, under the leadership of General Mattis, the First Marine Division lived by the motto "no better friend, no worse enemy." Similarly, I aspire for Hamas to experience the Israeli Army as their most formidable adversary, and I am committed to witnessing the defeat of every Hamas fighter.
However, if Israel fails to demonstrate the initial claim that "if you collaborate with us, you will discover unparalleled friendship", we will witness a significant influx of fresh Hamas militants replacing the ones who are killed.
Within Gaza, there exist numerous peace-loving Palestinians who deeply detest Hamas. Yet, it is the responsibility of the Israeli Army to substantiate their role as superior allies.
I wish for Israel's success despite the overwhelming challenges they face, but it is crucial for them to devise a more effective strategy rather than resorting to indiscriminate violence, which only leads to the tragic loss of innocent lives, like those of five-year-old Palestinian children. This approach not only fails to yield positive outcomes but also inadvertently fuels the recruitment of more terrorists.
And nobody wants to see five-year-old Israeli kids dying, in the same forever war, 20 years from today.
