Unveiling the Hamas Gameplan: Israel's Impending Clash

Analysts say that the recent attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel, which started on Saturday, will be viewed as a pivotal moment in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, having significant consequences.

Around 1,000 assailants successfully infiltrated Israeli territory in a well-coordinated multi-pronged attack. They managed to kill numerous soldiers and civilians, while also capturing several hostages and taking them back to Gaza. This unprecedented incident resembled nothing Israel had witnessed since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. In response, Israel made a commitment to seek revenge, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to unleash "mighty vengeance." Meanwhile, Hamas declared readiness to face any potential outcomes.

"Something pivotal is about to happen," stated Kobi Michael, a seasoned researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. This assault has no parallel in Israeli history, according to him.

Kobi Michael, formerly the deputy director general and head of the Palestinian desk at Israel's Ministry for Strategic Affairs, informed CNN that "Hamas will undergo a transformation from what we once knew it to be."

Hamas claimed that the attack was in retaliation for alleged assaults on women, the desecration of Jerusalem's al-Aqsa mosque, and the continuous blockade of Gaza. Here's some information about the organization:

What is Hamas?

Established in 1987, Hamas emerged as an Islamist organization accompanied by its military faction. Originating as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Islamist movement established in Egypt during the late 1920s.

Hamas, short for "Harakat Al-Muqawama Al-Islamiyya" in Arabic, stands for the Islamic Resistance Movement. Similar to other Palestinian factions and political parties, Hamas firmly believes that Israel is an occupying power and actively seeks to liberate the Palestinian territories. It views Israel as an illegitimate state.

In contrast to certain Palestinian factions, Hamas refuses to engage in any form of communication or negotiation with Israel. In 1993, it strongly opposed the Oslo Accords, a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The accord stipulated that the PLO would renounce armed resistance against Israel in exchange for the promise of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Additionally, the Oslo Accords led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Palestinian Hamas militants attend the funeral of their comrade in the southern Gaza Strip in August 2017.

Hamas positions itself as a substitute for the PA, which has acknowledged Israel and has been involved in various unsuccessful peace endeavors with it. Led by President Mahmoud Abbas, the PA's reputation among Palestinians has declined over time.

Over time, the group has taken responsibility for numerous attacks on Israel and has been officially recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and Israel.

According to the US State Department in 2021, Hamas is known to receive financial aid, weapons, and training from Iran, in addition to some contributions from Gulf Arab nations. The group also obtains donations from certain Palestinians, expatriates, and its own charitable establishments.

In April, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that Iran provides Hamas with some $100 million annually.

What was Hamas strategy in carrying out the attacks?

According to experts, the primary aim of carrying out such a destructive attack would have been to drastically disrupt the current situation. They assert that Israel's strong blockade on Gaza and ongoing occupation of the West Bank, along with the absence of progress towards an independent Palestinian state, warrant attention. Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and director of its Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs, suggests that one objective would be to refocus global and regional discussions on the Palestinian issue.

"People had moved on (from the Palestinian issue)," Elgindy told CNN. "The new game in town is Saudi-Israel normalization, and this new regional integration."

People run across an empty field away from gunshots at a music festival near the Gaza-Israel border on October 7, 2023.

From Instagram

Music festival attendees in the desert were subjected to a terrifying ordeal as they heard the sound of rockets before being attacked and held hostage by Gaza militants. Recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a significant revelation, admitting that discussions were underway with the United States regarding the potential establishment of relations with Israel. He expressed optimism, stating that the process of normalization is progressing each day. Should Saudi Arabia and Israel successfully normalize their relations, it could have far-reaching implications for Israel's acceptance in the region, potentially influencing other Muslim nations to follow suit. It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia had previously vowed not to acknowledge Israel until the Palestinians achieve their independence.

According to Elgindy, Hamas has partially achieved its objective of refocusing attention on the Palestinian cause. Additionally, analysts suggest that the group might be attempting to dispel notions regarding its military capabilities.

Hamas has dealt a significant blow to Israel, surpassing their usual tactics and showcasing their capabilities, according to Omar Rahman, a Palestinian affairs specialist at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Rahman believes that this display of shock tactics is a clear signal that Hamas demands to be taken more seriously.

The Israeli military confirmed on Monday that dozens of hostages had been taken by Hamas, while Hamas claims to have abducted over 100 individuals. Experts point out that the high number of hostage-taking, particularly of civilians, indicates that Hamas seeks more than a mere prisoner exchange. In a previous hostage situation, Israel exchanged over 1,000 prisoners for just one Israeli hostage.

The considerable amount of hostages guarantees that "this is not a brief military back-and-forth that will subside and fade away," Rahman affirmed, "but rather, it possesses enduring political consequences."

Reuters

Israel at war with Hamas after unprecedented attacks

Hamas effectively promotes its anti-Israel campaign through well-produced propaganda videos, showcasing their systematic attack on Israel. These videos often feature fighters wearing bodycams, capturing the operations as they skillfully breach Israeli fortifications while dressed in commando-style uniforms. Analysts assert that this serves as a crucial element in the group's propaganda warfare, serving multiple strategic objectives.

The purpose is twofold. Firstly, it aims to create fear among the Israeli public and suggest that their leaders are unable to ensure their safety. This will be particularly surprising as Israelis take great pride in their military and intelligence capabilities. Secondly, it serves to appeal to the Palestinian population. Hamas has been engaged in a long-standing political battle with the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank and has a security coordination agreement with Israel.

This is intended to demonstrate to Palestinians that "while over there, Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority) is essentially not taking action, we are the real resistance, and we are actively making progress," Elgindy informed CNN about Hamas.

Hamas' political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh speaks during a rally in Qatar's capital Doha, in May 2021.

Mahmoud Hefnawy/picture-alliance/dpa/AP

Can Hamas survive Israels response?

Hamas large-scale offensive shows that the group knows that the coming war may be an existential one, experts say.

Michael, an INSS representative, speculates that Hamas could have intended to instigate a full-scale war with Israel. Additionally, Hamas may have received assurances of regional support from its allies if such a conflict were to occur.

According to Michael's statement to CNN, Hamas has maintained a distinct strategy centered around the concept of a multi-front conflict. He further explains that Hamas perceives Gaza, Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Arab citizens in Israel who back Hamas, and southern Lebanon as potential sources of support for their cause.

Senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri, stated over the weekend that the militant group is prepared for the possibility of a ground invasion, considering it as a "worst-case scenario." He further noted that a ground invasion would allow them to exert greater control over the outcome of the ongoing battle.