The Escalating Hamas Offensive: A Defining Test for Netanyahu's Troubled Administration
Netanyahu's political career faces its greatest challenge as the Hamas attack wreaks havoc With a multitude of nicknames and election victories, the crisis tests his resilience and leadership
Throughout his lengthy political career spanning over three decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has garnered a multitude of nicknames, nearly as numerous as his triumphs in elections. Among them is "The Magician," highlighting his remarkable talent of turning near defeat into victory. Additionally, "King Bibi" denotes his unparalleled longevity in Israeli politics. However, there is one moniker, not necessarily endearing, yet embraced by Netanyahu – "Bibi." Sadly, it is the title of "Mr. Security" that now lies in ruins. How did this transformation come to pass?
The manner in which over 1,000 Hamas militants were able to catch Israel completely off guard, resulting in a shockingly high number of Jewish casualties in a single day, remains unclear. President Isaac Herzog expressed that this incident surpassed any other instance since the Holocaust. Currently, Netanyahu's opponents are not demanding his resignation. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is now the leader of the opposition, stated that he is not focused on assigning blame or analyzing the reasons for the surprise attack at this moment as it is not the appropriate time or context.
On October 7, 2023, a series of rockets were launched from Gaza City towards Israel. According to an AFP journalist in the Palestinian territory, the blockaded Gaza Strip witnessed dozens of rockets being fired. Meanwhile, in Israel, sirens blared as a warning of incoming fire. The photo captured by MAHMUD HAMS / AFP provides a visual representation of the intense situation.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
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However, the prospect of such a time and place is inevitable. According to Amit Segal, the chief political commentator for Israel Channel 12, it would be highly unprecedented if Prime Minister Bibi's leadership manages to survive this war. "It would create a national precedent," Segal expressed to CNN. "Israeli history has consistently shown us that every unexpected event and crisis has ultimately led to the downfall of the government. This was evident in 1973 with Golda Meir after the Yom Kippur War, in 1982 with Menachem Begin during the first Lebanon war, and in 2006 with Ehud Olmert during the second Lebanon War. The clock is ticking."
Undoubtedly, history offers a valuable point of reference: the last time Israeli intelligence encountered such a tremendous failure, resulting in significant casualties, occurred nearly 50 years ago on Yom Kippur when Egypt and Syria launched an invasion on Israel.
According to Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, the previous war followed a set of norms and rules. However, negotiating peace with Hamas is not likely as it presents a different challenge. Nevertheless, some form of negotiation, possibly with intermediaries like Egypt, is necessary. Despite Israel's airstrikes and complete siege on Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu also needs to address the issue of the hostages held by the militants.
Netanyahus prime would have made this challenging, but now, after enduring 10 months of protests against his controversial judicial restructuring, his corruption case, and a near-death encounter, this is a worn-out and defeated Bibi, not the former version.
Hamas being able to bring Israel together may offer little solace to him. Plesner, who also serves in the reserves of the Israeli special forces as a major, stated, "Netanyahus political career is the least of the concerns for Israelis at the moment," when speaking to CNN.
It is important to note that Bibi has defied expectations multiple times in the past, making a comeback and defeating his opponents. However, this particular situation feels different. He has been unexpectedly thrown into a warfare that he did not choose, possibly due to being preoccupied with other matters.
According to Channel 12's Segal, focusing on the judicial overhaul was not advantageous. However, this attack by Hamas was likely planned 12 to 18 months ago, during a time when Netanyahu was in opposition. The mistake, he explains, was assuming that Hamas only sought economic concessions and a relaxation of Israel's Gaza blockade. "In the end, they are a totalitarian regime seeking to annihilate us all. It is impossible to coexist with such a monstrous entity in our own backyard."
Whether Netanyahu and the Israel Defense Forces IDF can defeat the monster will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. He may be able to form a national unity "emergency" government that would protect him from any demands to resign. In the short term, this could marginalize the more "extreme" and "dysfunctional" elements of Netanyahus coalition, as described by Lapid. However, even if they are sidelined, their ideas may still persist.
The shock and anger caused by Hamas' dramatic attack may make Israeli voters more receptive to extreme ideas. "A certain portion of the population will expect a very harsh response," says Plesner, "and it will be based on a zero-sum game: it's either us or them." This time, "Mr Security" may not succeed.
