US officials assess Israel's readiness for potential full-scale incursion into Rafah

The Biden administration believes that Israel has gathered enough troops near Rafah in Gaza for a possible full-scale operation in the near future. However, senior US officials are uncertain if Israel has made a final decision to proceed with this plan against President Joe Biden's wishes, as reported by two senior administration officials to CNN.

Additionally, one of the officials has expressed concern that Israel has not adequately prepared for a potential evacuation of over one million residents of Rafah. This includes the necessary infrastructure for food, hygiene, and shelter.

If Israel decides to launch a major ground operation into Rafah, it would be going against the months of warnings from the US to avoid a full-scale offensive in the densely populated city. Just last week, Biden himself reiterated this warning in strong terms during an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett. He made it clear that the US would hold back certain arms shipments to Israel if they were to proceed with such a move.

During a briefing at the White House on Monday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that President Biden had been explicit in his stance. He stated that the President had been clear in his message that certain offensive weapons would not be provided if Israel were to carry out the operation. As of now, this operation has not taken place.

US officials are starting to doubt Israel's strategy in the eighth month of the war. They are even suggesting that Israel may not succeed in destroying Hamas and getting rid of its leaders.

Kurt Campbell, the second highest official at the State Department, mentioned on Monday that there are clear disagreements between the US and Israel on what the end goal of the war should be.

Israeli leaders often talk about the idea of achieving a sweeping victory on the battlefield, but it may not be likely or possible, according to Campbell. He believes in the importance of finding a political solution and emphasizes the need for engagement with the surrounding region, as discussed at the NATO Youth Summit co-hosted by the Aspen Institute.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken cautioned against rushing into conflict in Rafah, highlighting the potential dire consequences.

Blinken stated on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Israel is at risk of facing an insurgency led by the armed Hamas, or potentially a vacuum filled with chaos and anarchy that could be taken over by Hamas if they withdraw. The US believes that Hamas has been significantly weakened.

The US believes that Israel will not be able to completely destroy Hamas. However, the administration thinks that Israel has accomplished many of its initial goals in the war. According to State Department spokesperson Matt Miller, Hamas has been significantly weakened.

Miller stated last week that Hamas' capability to carry out large-scale attacks, like the one on October 7, has been greatly reduced, if not completely eliminated. He mentioned, "They are not able to launch an attack of that magnitude at this time."

Israel has successfully eliminated weapons production factories underground and a significant number of battalion leadership in the north and central Gaza region. This has allowed Israel to achieve many of its military objectives.

It is still uncertain if senior Hamas leaders are in Rafah, but the US is supporting Israel in its efforts to target and remove senior members. The US is providing valuable intelligence assistance to help locate key figures such as Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza.

Biden is urging Israel and Hamas to agree on a temporary ceasefire and release hostages. However, senior US officials have not pushed for a permanent end to the fighting. The Biden administration is pressuring Israel to focus more on post-war plans for Gaza, but progress has been limited.

Israel's lack of interest in planning for the "day after" the conflict is frustrating Biden advisers. One senior administration official even described Israel as behaving as if post-war Gaza is someone else's problem to solve.

In both public and private settings, this official mentioned that Israel has not provided clear positions on two key issues: post-war governance and the oversight of security in Gaza once the war ends.

Blinken urged Israel to take a more serious approach in developing a plan for post-war Gaza during the weekend. He expressed disappointment in the lack of engagement from Israel so far.

"We've spent weeks working on important plans for security, governance, and rebuilding. However, we have not seen similar efforts from Israel," Blinken mentioned on CBS. "We have been collaborating with Arab nations and other partners on these plans. It is crucial for us to see Israel's involvement as well. Our goal aligns with Israel's - to prevent Hamas from regaining control of Gaza."

Editor's P/S:

The article presents a complex and evolving situation in Gaza, with the Biden administration expressing concerns over Israel's potential full-scale operation in Rafah. The US has warned against such a move, citing humanitarian concerns and the risk of escalating the conflict. Despite warnings from Biden, Israel has gathered troops near Rafah, leaving senior US officials uncertain about their intentions.

The article highlights the differing perspectives between the US and Israel on the end goal of the war, with US officials expressing doubts about Israel's ability to completely destroy Hamas. The US believes that a political solution and engagement with the region are crucial for a sustainable outcome. However, Israeli leaders have often emphasized a sweeping battlefield victory, which some experts view as unlikely. The article also raises concerns about Israel's lack of planning for post-war Gaza, with Biden advisers expressing frustration over Israel's apparent reluctance to engage in such efforts.