Israel's Evolving Strategy Against Hamas: A New Phase of Conflict Begins?
Israel's evolving war tactics and relentless pursuit of Hamas leaders mark a significant shift in its approach, three months after a wave of devastating attacks Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's vow resonates as the nation remains determined to neutralize the threat
Three months ago, in response to a horrifying day of attacks by Hamas, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, made a vow to the citizens.
"The IDF will swiftly and decisively neutralize Hamas's abilities," Netanyahu declared. "We will eradicate them."
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is now entering a new phase in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza, and indications are that its goals are evolving as well.
"The history does not favor military operations that aim to eliminate entrenched political and military movements," said Bilal Y. Saab, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, in an interview with CNN.
"The IDF leadership is aware that their primary objective is to significantly weaken Hamas' military capabilities," Saab stated.
Israel has achieved some victories in this effort, with its forces reporting the deaths of thousands of Hamas fighters, including high-ranking members, and the destruction of portions of the extensive tunnel network in the enclave.
But obstacles persist and the endgame is still distant. Very few warring countries impose deadlines. Israeli authorities have cautioned about a prolonged conflict that could extend until the completion of 2024 and beyond.
Smoke billowing over Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip during Israeli bombardments on Friday.
AFP/Getty Images
The unfolding humanitarian crisis and increasing civilian deaths in Gaza have left the international community increasingly appalled. With mounting international pressure, domestic unease towards Netanyahu, a prime minister facing challenges, continues to rise as he seeks to showcase concrete victories.
A new combat approach
Saab highlighted the pressing questions that the Israeli leadership must address: "At what cost will this tactical victory be achieved, and how much time do the Israelis have to secure it before facing even greater international condemnation?"
Netanyahu's goal of destroying Hamas, which he promoted on October 7, was considered lofty, difficult to achieve, and, according to numerous analysts, not feasible.
"History has shown that this type of mission is not attainable - we have witnessed repeated failures in the past," stated Saab.
Hamas's influence reaches well beyond Gaza, making the complete defeat of the group a highly ambitious goal for Israel, if it is even possible to achieve. However, it is uncertain whether the IDF leadership has placed this as a top priority. During a speech on Thursday, IDF intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva did not mention the destruction of Hamas when outlining military objectives, as reported by the Israeli media.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed new plans for the upcoming phase of the conflict in Gaza on Thursday. The emphasis will be on implementing a new combat strategy in the north and maintaining a sustained effort to target suspected Hamas leaders in the southern territory.
Palestinians examine the aftermath of an Israeli attack on a residence in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, during the current conflict with Hamas on January 3, 2024. REUTERS/Emad Gabon TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Israeli government divisions have erupted as ministers clash over post-war plans. IDF operations in northern Gaza during the third phase will include raids, the destruction of terror tunnels, aerial and ground activities, and special operations, as per Gallant.
Yohanan Plesner, former Knesset member for the Kadima party and President of the Israel Democracy Institute, informed CNN that this phase will be less intense, but will require more time. Many analysts believe that significant progress has been made in the past three months towards the more realistic goal of severely reducing Hamas fighting capabilities.
Plesner stated that success should not be measured by the elimination of all Hamas operatives, but by rendering them unable to effectively govern the Gaza Strip. He described Hamas as having a military-like organization, complete with command centers and units, which was currently being undermined.
Netanyahu spoke to reporters in Tel Aviv and declared that the Israeli military was engaged in a powerful, multi-level battle and reported to have eliminated 8,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza.
CNN has been unable to confirm this number, but the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza reports that nearly 23,000 people have died in the territory since the war began. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but both the ministry in Gaza and its counterpart in the occupied West Bank suggest that approximately 70% of those killed or injured are women and children.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, before the war began on October 7, Israel estimated that Hamas had around 30,000 fighters in Gaza. These fighters were organized into five brigades, 24 battalions, and roughly 140 companies, with capabilities including anti-tank missiles, snipers, engineers, and rocket and mortar arrays.
A hunt for Hamas leaders
Israel has also reported instances of successful targeting of Hamas tunnel shafts, which have been historically challenging for IDF forces to penetrate. The IDF recently shared a video depicting the dismantling of a tunnel passage beneath Al-Shifa Hospital, the largest healthcare facility in Gaza, which it attributed to Hamas excavation.
Last month, additional videos were released, purportedly showing a network of tunnels connecting to the residences and offices of senior Hamas leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, and Muhammad Deif.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is a key target of the IDF.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images/FILE
However, Israel has yet to achieve its main objective of locating and eliminating the key leaders of Hamas in Gaza.
"Intelligence is crucial in this matter," stated Saab. Gallant and other officials have consistently stressed the significance of their mission to eradicate senior Hamas leaders. The defense minister even made a vow in late December that Sinwar would soon be confronted by their armed forces.
Sinwar has been a prominent member of the Islamist Palestinian group for many years, playing a significant role in developing the Hamas military wing. In addition to this, he has also established crucial connections with regional Arab powers in his leadership positions within the group's civilian and political sectors.
Smoke billows from Israeli bombardment along the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on January 4, 2024, amid ongoing conflict with the militant group Hamas. (Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images)
Replacing commanders in organizations like Hamas is relatively easy, according to Saab, who also noted that no one is irreplaceable within the group. However, he acknowledged that targeting the symbolic heads of the organization could potentially have significant repercussions, particularly among those with military duties. Therefore, preventing a widened Middle East war is crucial to avoid such potential consequences.
The new phase of Israel's war does not appear to offer any hope for the Palestinians stuck in Gaza, where the humanitarian crisis has reached alarming levels.
However, Netanyahu may be more inclined to give in to domestic pressure, especially with the growing outrage over the ongoing captivity of over 100 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7.
Israel has stated that they believe 25 hostages are deceased and currently being held in Gaza, as reported by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office to CNN on Friday. This leaves 107 hostages from the Hamas attack last year who are still believed to be alive.
The return of these hostages continues to be a key objective in the new phase of the conflict. However, the failure to secure their release would increase the political pressure on a leader who has seen a sharp decline in popularity among Israelis since October 7.
Plesner noted that from the beginning, there was a noticeable gap between support for the war goals and the IDF, and a growing lack of trust in the Israeli government. "There's a significant divide," he said. CNN's reporting was contributed by Richard Allen Greene, Alex Marquardt, Niamh Kennedy, and Lauren Izso.
