Highlights
The Marvels is facing a potential box office opening setback, which could be detrimental to the major MCU players making their big screen debut in the film.
The film's pre-sales are underperforming compared to other MCU films, indicating a lack of fan enthusiasm. Potential causes for the low pre-sales include competition from other movies, a decline in post-Endgame MCU performance, and limited promotion due to an ongoing strike. Nonetheless, encouraging test screenings offer a glimmer of hope for a potential turnaround.
Early indications suggest that The Marvels may face a disappointing box office opening, posing a significant obstacle for several major MCU players making their cinematic debut in the film.
The Marvels serves as a sequel to 2019's Captain Marvel and continues the storyline established in the 2022 Disney Plus series, Ms. Marvel. It aims to establish a connection between Captain Marvel and her allies, Ms. Marvel and Monica Rambeau, who are both making their first appearance on the big screen after debuting in the MCU on Disney Plus. Despite its unconventional nature within the MCU, the Disney Plus series of Ms. Marvel played a significant role in setting up the film through its final episode teaser, while Rambeau's adult character was introduced in WandaVision. Despite the presence of two additional co-leads, Brie Larson, the film's lead actress, expressed enthusiasm for Captain Marvel's next adventure in this anticipated sequel.
Unfortunately, the excitement for the film is not shared by fans. The Marvels trailer has received the most dislikes on YouTube among all of the MCU films. In addition, there is more discouraging news on the horizon. According to Box Office Pro, a reference publication, The Marvels is not performing well in terms of pre-sales compared to other MCU movies. It is currently behind Guardians Vol. 3 by 69 percent, Quantumania by 72 percent, and Eternals by 42 percent. Moreover, the projected domestic total for The Marvels ranges from $121 million to about $189 million, which is significantly lower than the $426.8 million domestic and 1.13 billion global earnings of the first film. It is also below the film's reported budget.
The Marvels is facing several challenges that may be contributing to its poor performance. One potential reason is the Taylor Swift Eras Tour movie, which is currently playing in select theaters and could be diverting attention and pre-sales away from The Marvels. Another factor is the absence of the boost it received from being released in close proximity to Avengers: Endgame, as well as a general decline in the post-Endgame performance of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as evidenced by Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Furthermore, the lack of promotion from the film's stars, due to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike, is also impacting its visibility.
Given the disappointing performance of Ant-Man 3 and its negative impact on Guardians Vol. 3, The Marvels has a lot to prove at the box office. Its success will also be influenced by how it competes with The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and. Snakes and Wish in the weeks following its release, although the outcome is uncertain. Additionally, there is significant pressure for the film to strike a balance between exploring the depth of its main characters' relationships while delivering thrilling action and maintaining a strong connection to the larger MCU narrative.
Despite the initial lackluster box office outlook, there is optimism that The Marvels will recover from its slow start, thanks to raving reports about incredibly positive test screenings. If the film manages to resonate with fans to such an extent, the idea of positive word-of-mouth boosting its performance isn't far-fetched. Of course, all of this is mere speculation, and fans will have to wait and see how things unfold. The Marvels is scheduled to hit theaters on November 10, 2023.
Source: Box Office Pro