Trump Takes the Stand: Surging Ahead of Biden in Crucial Swing States
Ahead of Election Day 2024, Trump prepares to testify in a civil fraud trial while facing over 90 criminal charges This raises the possibility of a convicted felon leading the Republican ticket next November, as Biden's political standing continues to decline
Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to testify in a civil fraud trial and is also confronted with over 90 criminal charges, making it possible for a convicted felon to lead the Republican ticket in the upcoming November elections. However, President Joe Biden's political prospects are declining.
In a surprising turn of events in the 2024 campaign season, which has been dominated by legal proceedings rather than traditional campaigning, Trump is expected to testify in a New York court on Monday. This is an unusual occurrence for a former president, but Trump's presidency was known for its unconventional nature.
Meanwhile, Biden is facing unfavorable polling data that shows him trailing behind Trump, the leading candidate for the Republican Party, in several crucial swing states. These numbers are likely to cause concern among Democrats and raise doubts among the American public about whether the soon-to-be 81-year-old Biden is capable of serving a full second term. If the New York Times/Siena College survey's predictions for 2024 prove accurate, Biden would have no viable path to victory. Furthermore, despite his role in inciting the Capitol insurrection through baseless claims of electoral fraud in 2020, an increasingly authoritarian Trump, who is promising "retribution" during a potential second term, could still manage to make a comeback and reclaim the White House.
Former President Donald Trump, left, and President Joe Biden.
Reuters
Trump leads Biden in 4 key swing states, new polling finds
"I had concerns prior to these polls, and my concerns persist," stated Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal from Connecticut during an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Sunday's episode of "State of the Union."
"Over the past few terms, these presidential races have been exceedingly close. There won't be any landslide victory in this election. It will require extensive efforts, focus, and substantial resources. Therefore, we have a challenging task ahead of us."
Despite the coinciding crises faced by both Trump and Biden, it is noteworthy that neither has encountered a significant challenger from their respective parties in their quest for the nomination, despite their shortcomings.
Biden's position is currently weakening as he deals with a series of global threats, including the ongoing war in the Middle East. Additionally, he is losing support due to his handling of the economy, while also observing cracks in the multiracial coalition that initially elected him. These developments reflect a nation that is divided, discontent, and searching for the elusive sense of normalcy that the president promised three years ago in response to the pandemic and the tumultuous era of the Trump administration.
The upcoming poll will undoubtedly reignite the debate over whether Biden should continue his re-election bid, with certain Democrats asserting that the opportunity to unify behind an alternative candidate may have already lapsed.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. on November 2, in Houston, Texas.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
As Trump's legal and political obligations overlap, his legal team and campaign staff are handling the resulting turmoil. Former senior strategist for President Barack Obama and current CNN senior political analyst, David Axelrod, expressed on X (formerly known as Twitter) that it is too late to make significant changes. Axelrod acknowledged that Biden has previously gone against conventional expectations, but the recent polls are causing uncertainty within the party.
Trumps' strong performance in the New York Times polls and other surveys will cause concern globally, as people realize that a potential second term for Trump could potentially dismantle the post-World War II system of Western alliances and effectively give control of Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, it is important to note that polls at this stage in the modern era are not always a guaranteed indication of election outcomes. Many significant events that will shape the 2024 race have yet to occur.
Supporters of Biden argue that the criticism he receives from his opponents and the media fails to address the crucial factor that will shape the 2024 election. They maintain that once the choice between Biden and Trump becomes evident, the public will ultimately support a president who accurately predicted Republican threats to US democracy in the previous midterms, surpassing the expectations of analysts.
Furthermore, the economy, characterized by strong job growth and overall stability, may increasingly work in Biden's favor over the next year, especially considering the focus on rising prices and interest rates.
The influence of independent candidates on the election and the potential influence of a disorderly House GOP on voter opinions are unclear variables. Moreover, although Trump's loyal supporters have embraced his assertions that his legal troubles are merely political persecution from the Biden administration, the idea of a former president and potential candidate being on trial during an election year is unprecedented.
Trump takes the stand
The biggest test yet of Trumps strategy of turning his criminal peril into electoral advantage will unfold in a New York courtroom on Monday.
Americans are unaccustomed to witnessing their former leaders taking an oath on the witness stand, as this is more commonly seen in vulnerable developing nations rather than in the most influential democracy in the world. Although this is a civil trial, Trump holds no criminal liability. However, the judge has already concluded that Trump, along with his adult sons and the Trump Organization, engaged in "persistent and repeated" fraud. Presently, the judge is deliberating on the demand made by New York Attorney General Letitia James for $250 million in damages and a prohibition on Trump conducting business in the state where he gained fame.
Despite not being broadcasted, Trump is predictably transforming his court appearances into intense spectacles by vocally expressing his discontent outside the courtroom, denouncing unfair treatment, and launching scathing attacks against James, the judge, and court staff, which has sparked concerns for their safety. The former president is actively attempting to undermine the credibility of the judicial system that aims to hold him accountable. His tactics indicate that he poses an even greater threat to America's democratic system than when he departed Washington following his unsuccessful efforts to block Biden's election victory.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is now running as a Republican presidential candidate, was captured looking on during a campaign rally held at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. on November 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas. This visit to Houston is the second one for the former President in Texas this year. Interestingly, his sons, Don Jr. and Eric, were testifying at his civil fraud trial in New York today. A judge's ruling on Trump's extensive history of fraudulent activities while developing his real estate empire might lead to him being compelled to sell off his properties.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
What to watch when Donald Trump takes the stand in New York civil fraud trial
Testifying under oath can be challenging for a former president known for spreading false information. The legal consequences are stricter compared to the freedom he enjoys while making false statements during his political campaigns. Nonetheless, Trump is also defending his business ventures, his reputation, and the future of his family. According to Temidayo Aganga-Williams, a former senior investigative counsel of the House January 6 committee, Trump's behavior during the proceedings may be influenced by his legal team's assessment of the case.
"We have witnessed Donald Trump's boisterous, offensive, and aggressive demeanor during rallies. However, during deposition testimony, he has displayed a slightly more controlled and softer-spoken approach," Aganga-Williams shared with CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Friday. "If his legal team believes they are doomed, they may choose a more aggressive and public strategy, prioritizing other goals over the verdict itself."
Trump's defenses in his areas of criminal liability have transformed with a campaign strategy built on his repeated and false assertions that the 2020 election was stolen. The former president is set to face a federal trial in Washington starting in March for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He and his associates have also been indicted on racketeering charges in Fulton County, Georgia, relating to the election. Additionally, Trump has been indicted by special counsel Jack Smith for allegedly mishandling classified documents kept at his Florida resort after leaving office. Furthermore, he faces trial for his initial criminal indictment in a New York case involving a hush-money payment to an adult-film star.
However, in Trump's perspective, all of this represents a new wave of election interference leading up to 2024. In a fundraising email to his supporters on Sunday, exactly one year from Election Day, he issued a warning that if Biden and the Democrats are victorious, "This will continue endlessly - and America will never experience a legitimate election again."
Biden is slipping deeper into the political mire
With the possibility of the expected Republican candidate facing potential conviction, following his completion of a single term as the President of the United States, which was marked by his second impeachment due to his role in an insurrection, it begs the question for Biden: Why is the upcoming 2024 election even a close contest?
According to a recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Trump has gained an advantage over Biden in areas such as the economy, immigration, national security, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, Biden is seen as more trustworthy on the issue of abortion, which could potentially drive Democratic voter turnout and pose a challenge for the GOP in the 2024 elections.
In the state of Nevada, where Biden narrowly secured victory in 2020, Trump currently holds a 52% lead to Biden's 41%. Trump is also leading in Georgia, despite facing racketeering charges, with a 49% to 43% advantage over Biden. Additionally, in Arizona, another crucial state, the former president is ahead with 49% compared to Biden's 44%. Michigan, which Trump won in 2016 but Biden won in 2020, shows the Republican candidate currently leading by 5 points.
President Joe Biden speaks during a visit to Northfield, Minnesota, on November 1, 2023.
Andrew Harnik/AP
Biden aides grapple with 2024 outreach as Israel-Hamas war exposes cracks in coalition
According to the poll, there is a decline in support for Biden among Black and Hispanic voters. Additionally, the results indicate that 71% of those surveyed believe Biden's age hinders his effectiveness as president, compared to only 39% who feel the same way about Trump, despite him being 77 years old.
One Pennsylvania voter, Spencer Weiss, who previously supported Biden in the 2020 election, has now shifted his support to Trump. Weiss, as quoted by The Times, expressed his belief that the world is deteriorating under Biden's leadership. Furthermore, he stated his preference for a role-model leader for the country, even though he believes that Trump possesses the necessary mental agility for the job.
The Biden campaign dismissed early polls and asserted that their popular agenda would prevail over the unpopular extremism of MAGA Republicans. However, Democrats displayed signs of anxiety on Sunday.
In addition to Blumenthal, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, expressed concern that Biden's unwavering support for Israel, despite its extensive attacks on Gaza following the Hamas terror incidents on October 7, was detrimental to his reelection prospects. Jayapal, a lawmaker from Washington state, informed Jen Psaki on MSNBC that she believed, for the "first time," Biden's chances of being reelected were in serious jeopardy because "Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and young people perceive this conflict as a moral dilemma and crisis."
