Trump Dominates New Hampshire, Ramaswamy, Haley, Christie, and DeSantis Clash for Runner-Up

According to a recent poll by CNN and the University of New Hampshire, former President Donald Trump is currently leading the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in New Hampshire. However, there is a tight competition for second place among four candidates who are vying to gain momentum as an alternative to the front-runner. In general, Trump is favored by 39% of likely GOP primary voters in the state, which is slightly lower than his support at the national level where he consistently receives majority backing in Republican primary polls.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once considered a strong contender in the New Hampshire race according to a previous UNH survey conducted in July, has experienced a significant decline in support, dropping 13 points to only 10%. He now faces tough competition from three other candidates who have been gaining popularity: tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (13%), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (12%), and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (11%). Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina holds 6% support in the poll, while former Vice President Mike Pence only has 2%. All other candidates are below 1% in terms of support.

The decline in DeSantis' support can mainly be attributed to the sharp decrease in moderate voters backing him, dropping from 26% in July to a mere 6% currently. Conversely, his support among conservatives only fell by 8 points.

The gains made by the other candidates have resulted in increased competitiveness with DeSantis, and these gains can be seen within specific demographic and political groups.

Ramaswamy's increase in support is primarily among individuals who are not registered Republicans, with a 16-point increase since July. However, his support among registered Republicans remains relatively steady. Additionally, his support has grown significantly among younger likely voters, with a 28-point increase among those under 35 and an 11-point increase among those aged 35 to 49. His support among those aged 50 or older has remained relatively unchanged.

Christie's growth in support is concentrated among individuals who identify as independents or Democrats but intend to vote in the GOP primary. His support has increased from 23% in July to 38% currently within this group. However, his support among self-identified Republicans has remained steady at 3%.

Haley's increase in support is slightly higher among individuals with higher levels of formal education. She has seen an 11-point increase among those who have completed some postgraduate work and a 15-point increase among other college graduates. Additionally, her support has grown by 18 points among moderates, while her support among conservatives has remained generally unchanged since July.

According to the poll, a significant portion of voters are open to changing their minds before the primary, which is expected to take place in January but has not yet been officially scheduled. The percentage of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire who have definitively chosen a candidate remains unchanged from the July UNH poll at 36%. Additionally, 38% are leaning towards a particular candidate, while 24% are still undecided. Notably, Trump's supporters are more likely to have made up their minds, with 69% of his voters in the primary stating they have definitely decided, compared to only 18% of supporters of other candidates.

Among the candidates, Christie elicits the highest level of negativity. Overall, 67% of likely Republican primary voters hold an unfavorable view of him, and 60% claim they would not vote for him under any circumstances. No other candidate in the GOP field has been written off by a majority of likely GOP primary voters. 42% express unwillingness to vote for Pence, while 31% feel the same about former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Additionally, 30% are against voting for Trump, 24% for Ramaswamy, 22% for DeSantis, 19% for Haley, and 8% for Scott. Pence, similar to Christie, is the only candidate who receives majority unfavorable views from likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire (62% unfavorable).

Approximately 51% of likely Republican primary voters believe that Trump stands the best chance of winning the general election in 2024, while DeSantis comes in second with 16%. Trump's perceived dominance in this aspect transcends various demographic and political divisions. Even those who are not particularly inclined to support Trump overall - such as college graduates, non-registered Republicans, and moderates - tend to view him as having a greater likelihood of winning the 2024 presidential election compared to other candidates.

Few likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire express significant doubts about Trump when asked about their top concerns regarding him as a candidate. Many of these concerns revolve around threats against Trump, including 17% who mention attacks from opponents or the media, 8% who bring up his indictments or the risk of imprisonment, 6% who highlight election fraud, and 4% who express worry about potential violence directed at Trump. Roughly 1 in 8 individuals express concern about his ability to secure victory, 6% are troubled by his divisive or unpopular nature, and some point to his personality or character (8% mention his bombastic nature, 4% his dishonesty, and 4% general character concerns).

According to the poll, the GOP race in New Hampshire highlights significant differences between Trump supporters and backers of other candidates. These differences include education, party preference, ideology, and their preferences for a Republican candidate for president. Additionally, the poll highlights discrepancies in terms of the issues that are most important to them and various policy proposals that have been prominent during the Republican primary campaign.

Among likely primary voters who do not support Trump, the economy is prioritized by 48% as the top issue in their decision-making process. On the other hand, a smaller percentage of these voters focus on immigration (14%). In contrast, Trump supporters are evenly divided between prioritizing the economy (28%) and immigration (25%). They also consider issues related to personal freedom (10%) and the cost of living (9%).

The funding for Ukraine is the key policy difference between Trump supporters and those backing other candidates. 84% of Trump backers want to halt all military funding for Ukraine, while only 39% of other candidate supporters feel the same way. A significant gap of nearly 40 points exists between Trump supporters and others regarding a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks. 78% of Trump supporters support the ban, compared to 40% of those supporting other candidates. Likewise, there is a 32-point difference on the issue of abolishing the federal government's Department of Education, with 81% of Trump backers in favor and 49% of other candidate supporters in agreement. However, there is less disparity on the requirement for transgender athletes to compete on teams based on their assigned sex at birth rather than their gender identity; 95% of Trump supporters and 83% of other candidate supporters agree on this. Both groups also largely agree on returning federal spending to pre-Covid levels, with 86% of Trump supporters and 73% of other candidate supporters supporting this measure.

As for the desired traits in a presidential nominee, those not currently supporting Trump prioritize different qualities. Around 75% of non-Trump supporters believe it is very important for the Republican nominee to attract support from outside the party, whereas only 45% of Trump supporters share the same view. Trump supporters value a candidate who fights for conservative values even when they are unpopular (93%) and who is not a typical politician (64%). However, fewer supporters of other candidates agree with these characteristics, with 50% and 26% respectively. Non-Trump supporters consider it more important for the GOP nominee to be respectful to others, with 73% emphasizing this quality compared to only 23% of Trump supporters. However, both groups prioritize having a candidate who speaks their beliefs.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted an online CNN New Hampshire poll from September 14-18. The poll included a full sample of 2,107 New Hampshire adults selected from a probability-based panel. The margin of sampling error for the overall sample is +/- 2.1 percentage points. Likely Republican primary voters, identified through survey questions about their intention to vote, accounted for 845 respondents. The margin of error for this subgroup is +/- 3.4 percentage points, with larger margins for subgroups.