Donald Trump's divisive rhetoric on illegal immigration has sparked criticism from Democrats, with Joe Biden's campaign condemning the former president for echoing the rhetoric of Adolf Hitler. Even members of the Republican party, such as potential 2024 presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, have publicly distanced themselves from Trump's comments.
Despite the negative coverage Trump has received, it may not necessarily result in a loss of votes for him. While there is no polling data available to gauge public opinion on Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, overall polls indicate that he is more trusted than the current president on immigration and border security. Additionally, he is also performing well among immigrant voters.
In the past two CNN/SSRS polls that inquired about a potential Biden vs. Trump general election matchup, approximately 100 voters born in another country were included in each sample. This totals about 200 respondents, a sufficiently large enough number to determine whether one candidate is significantly leading or trailing with immigrant voters.
The average of the two CNN surveys reveals that neither Biden nor Trump is in the lead, as they are both tied at 48%.
If this holds, it would be a major shift from the 2020 election, when Biden won immigrant voters by about 20 points, according to the Cooperative Election Study.
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This discovery may be unexpected. However, it's important to note that immigrants, on the whole, are much less likely to be White compared to the overall voter population. Recent polls have also indicated that Trump is gaining more support from voters of color, such as Black and Hispanic voters, compared to his 2020 numbers.
Additionally, a CNN/SSRS poll conducted in November may provide insight into why immigrants are not disturbed by Trump's comments. The poll revealed that immigration and border security are not their primary concerns, with over 40% identifying economic issues, including inflation, as the top issue facing the country. Only slightly more than 10% listed immigration and border security as their top concern. These findings are consistent with the overall population.
Even if immigrants voted based solely on immigration, it may not necessarily work against Trump. When asked which party's immigration views aligned with their own, immigrant voters were only 1 point more likely to say the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, which falls within the margin of error.
Immigrants make up only a small portion of the electorate, with about 90% of voters in the most recent CNN polls being born in the United States or a US territory. This trend benefits Trump, as overall voters have been more inclined to trust him over Biden on issues related to immigration and border security.
According to a November survey conducted by Marquette University Law School, 50% of registered voters believed Trump would be more effective in handling border security and immigration, while only 27% said the same for Biden. This represents a significant shift from a September poll, which showed similar results.
This marks a notable change from the 2020 poll, where Biden and Trump were nearly tied at 43% and 42% respectively in terms of who voters believed would handle immigration and border security better.
The findings align with broader immigration polling by Gallup, showing that more Americans are discontent with current levels of immigration and want to see a decrease. A September Marquette poll revealed that nearly 80% of voters, including Democrats, Republicans, and independents, are in favor of increased efforts to stop illegal immigration at the southern border.
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When it comes to the controversial topic of building a wall along the US-Mexico border, there has been a noticeable shift. The two most recent Fox News polls and the latest Quinnipiac University survey have revealed that, for the first time, a majority of voters support the construction of Trump's long-called-for wall along the US southern border.
In contrast, Biden has received some of his lowest approval ratings when it comes to immigration and border security.
This could be why many voters, including immigrants, are willing to overlook Trump's rhetoric. They feel that Trump is more likely than Biden to align with their preferences on immigration and border issues. As Trump continues to lead the GOP primary and has a strong stance on immigration compared to other Republican candidates, it is unlikely that he will stop talking about it anytime soon.
