The World on the Brink: Experts Predict Global Catastrophe in the Next Decade
Humanity's future is at stake as disinformation, fueled by AI, and the destructive impact of climate change converge A turbulent era awaits, with elections vulnerable to the threat of misinformation
The future for humanity is precarious, as it is threatened by a surge of disinformation driven by artificial intelligence and the destructive impacts of climate change. This sobering assessment comes from the World Economic Forum's yearly survey, which consults experts tasked with recognizing and addressing global risks.
The report published on Wednesday revealed that almost 66% of survey participants anticipate a heightened likelihood of global catastrophes in the coming decade. Additionally, approximately 30% foresee the same within the next two years.
Although the report does not explicitly outline what constitutes a "global catastrophe," it characterizes "global risk" as an event that could have a detrimental impact on a substantial portion of the global gross domestic product, population, or natural resources.
The WEF's latest report cautions about a global risks landscape eroding progress in human development, leaving states and individuals susceptible to new and resurgent risks. The survey results indicate a predominantly negative short-term outlook for the world that is expected to deteriorate over the long term.
The report, released before the WEF's prestigious annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland, is drawn from feedback from 1,490 risk specialists predominantly from the business sector, as well as from academia, government, and civil society. The survey was conducted from September 4 to October 9, 2023, concluding just two days after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel.
WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi remarked, "It is imperative for world leaders to unite in addressing immediate crises and to establish the foundation for a more durable, sustainable, and inclusive future."
Misinformation threat in huge election year
An increasingly volatile worldwide system marked by divisive narratives and instability, the escalating consequences of severe weather and financial uncertainty are fueling the spread of accelerated risks.
In its near-20-year history, the surveys have never before identified misinformation and disinformation as such a severe risk in the next two years. This comes at a time when there is an unprecedented number of elections globally, with nearly 3 billion people expected to vote in 2024.
According to the American Psychological Association, misinformation is defined as "false or inaccurate information that gets the facts wrong." On the other hand, disinformation is "false information that is deliberately intended to mislead."
The use of AI has significantly facilitated the dissemination of misleading information to sway voters, particularly through the creation of deepfakes, according to Carolina Klint, the chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, a professional services firm and one of the authors of the report.
"This year, there is a concern that we will witness a surge in such activities," she told CNN. "This could potentially cast doubt on the legitimacy of elected governments, leading to increased societal polarization."
Extreme weather events were ranked as the second highest short-term risk, indicating an increased concern about the environment and climate change in a year marked by escalating temperatures and widespread flooding and wildfires. Last year marked the hottest on record.
For the first time in a decade, cyber insecurity also made it into the top five short-term risks, ranking at number four, following societal polarization and preceding interstate armed conflict.
AI has heightened the risk of cyber attacks, as cyber criminals can use the technology to tackle complex tasks like coding, says Klint. "A malicious actor doesn't need to be highly intelligent," she stated. "This has expanded the opportunities for cyber criminals... It also accelerates the speed of cyber attacks." Nonetheless, she mentioned that AI could also aid in detecting malicious activity.
For the third year in a row, environmental concerns continue to be the top priority over the next 10 years. The top five long-term risks include extreme weather events, critical changes to Earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and misinformation and disinformation.
