The State of the Race After the Iowa Caucuses
A comprehensive analysis of the state of the race coming out of the Iowa caucuses and the perspectives of Donald Trump's main competitors.
Why Ron DeSantis Lost Me
For a while, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed to offer everything a conservative like me would look for in a candidate: a long track record of conservative successes, a proven ability to help shift a purple state in a Republican direction and battle scars from having taken the fight to the left and won.
Patrick T. Brown
As I wrote last summer, there seemed to be a real lane for someone who could position himself as Donald Trump-adjacent so long as he offered more than 'Trumpism without the baggage.' I wasnt alone; many conservative wonks, from National Reviews Michael Brendan Dougherty to Christopher Rufo of the Manhattan Institute, saw the promise of a battle-tested governor who could win elections, own the libs and advance conservative priorities was worth cheering. If the first votes in the primary had been cast a year ago, Id have been right there with them.
Unfortunately, Team DeSantis didnt deliver the campaign Id been hoping for. His infamously glitchy campaign launch last May, live on Twitter with Elon Musk, presaged a campaign that cocooned itself in a conservative echo chamber and suffered high-profile staffing slip-ups. He proved awkward in person and on the debate stage. As Semafors David Weigel has written, the Florida governor lacks a 'poker face,' and spent many early debates telegraphing his desperation to stick to scripted lines and avoid missteps.
Over the past month, weve seen flashes of what a different DeSantis campaign could have done inging Trump for his calling the passage of pro-life legislation a 'terrible mistake' and pointing out Trumps lack of principles by prioritizing personal loyalty over commitment to conservative policy goals. Its been too little, too late, and its possible no alternative playbook could have led to a better outcome for the Florida governor.
Former president Donald Trump speaks to voters during a visit to a caucus site at the Horizon Event Center on January 15, 2024 in Clive, Iowa.
Former president Donald Trump speaks to voters during a visit to a caucus site at the Horizon Event Center on January 15, 2024 in Clive, Iowa.
Opinion: Trumps Iowa Win Shows the Republican Nomination is No Contest
Ever since his first indictment, the former presidents campaign for a third Republican nomination has been like a snowball rolling downhill, gathering mass and momentum and becoming seemingly unstoppable. Republican primary voters may never have been open to someone who offered Trumps posture and policy goals in a more competent package when the original item was still on offer. That explains why Trump got about half of all the Republican votes in Iowa, leaving DeSantis far behind.
Which leaves Republicans who have grave concerns about the former presidents electability and suitability for office including myself with one final alternative: former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. Haley, who also was far behind Trump in Iowa, offers some positives for conservatives like me: an approach to abortion that is principled but compassionate, a well-worn familiarity with traditional conservative policy goals such as applying free market principles to health care, and a laudable and apparently earnest desire to work across the aisle rather than feed the fever swamps.
Shes far from perfect. Her foreign policy stances, in particular, demonstrate the worst impulses of the George W. Bush era; during the campaign, shes been willing to use aggressive rhetoric and commit America to be the worlds policeman without even much lip service to the trade-offs at play. And even on the topic where she is most willing to highlight disagreement with her former boss, spending and the federal deficit, shes pushed for tax cuts, which would be likely to completely undermine her focus on reducing the national debt.
Sharon McNutt holds paper ballots before Republican caucus voters arrive to choose a presidential candidate, in Silver City, Iowa, on Monday.
Sharon McNutt holds paper ballots before Republican caucus voters arrive to choose a presidential candidate, in Silver City, Iowa, on Monday.
Why a Third-Place Finish in Iowa is Good Enough for Nikki Haley
Conventional wisdom had it that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley wasnt going to play well in Iowa. Republicans there are too conservative, some said. Theyre too evangelical, some said. Theyre far more interested in former President Donald Trumps election-denying, fire-breathing, revenge-seeking brand of politics than someone like Haleys, many said.
After Monday nights votes came in, it was inarguable that Iowa Republicans love Trump roughly half identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement, and about two-thirds said they do not believe that President Joe Bidens win over Trump in 2020 was legitimate, according to initial results of CNNs entrance poll for the caucuses. That should tell you a lot about Iowa voters, but enough of them also voted for DeSantis and Haley. CNN is projecting that DeSantis will finish in second place with 21%, just ahead of Haley with 19%.
Republican presidential candidates former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, left, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis participate in the NewsNation Republican Presidential Primary Debate at the University of Alabama Moody Music Hall on December 6, 2023, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Republican presidential candidates former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, left, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis participate in the NewsNation Republican Presidential Primary Debate at the University of Alabama Moody Music Hall on December 6, 2023, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
