The Revolutionizing Game: Unveiling the Futuristic Manager Transfer Market

A revolution is occurring in the field of player scouting, leading to a significant transformation in how clubs find and recruit managers. Alongside the emergence of sporting directors, head coaches are now expected to primarily concentrate on football and align with the playing-style philosophy of clubs. The utilization of data analysis is expanding the scope of talent discovery. Additionally, with the increase in compensation packages, the financial worth of managers has reached unprecedented heights.

Finding the right fit and a remit to focus on the football

"In the coming decades, the role is expected to continue evolving. Clubs will need to reconsider their approaches to recruiting team leaders. Employing a more analytical approach could potentially foster a greater sense of diversity in the dugout."

According to Kaveh Solhekol, the chief reporter of We News, clubs have witnessed a significant change in their approach to appointing head coaches due to their reliance on data. While the "who you know" factor may still play a role, clubs are now prioritizing analytical information. Alex Stewart, the head of content at Analytics FC, a consultancy specializing in data analysis for clubs, emphasizes that previous methods of appointing managers are no longer suitable due to the high costs involved.

The current focus is on coaches seamlessly aligning with a club's desired style of play, thereby minimizing potential issues that may arise when a squad comprises players wanted by different managers with varying visions.

"Swansea City was among the clubs that strongly adhered to a philosophy," remarks Dean Eldredge, a manager agent at Oporto Sports. "They brought in managers like Roberto Martinez, Paulo Sousa, Brendan Rodgers, and Michael Laudrup, and during that phase - without intending any disrespect towards these four individuals or to sound pessimistic - the identity of the person in charge almost became inconsequential due to the club's steadfast philosophy."

At Analytics FC, they provide clubs with their Coach ID product, which assists executives in finding appropriate appointments using data. "Football clubs can establish a strategic vision for the style of football they desire to play. This enables them to quickly compile a roster of coaches that align with those specific criteria," explains Stewart.

"We can categorize coaches and identify their coaching styles. Some coaches are park-the-bus coaches, while others are direct domination coaches. Clubs prefer it when these styles are explained to them in simple terms. They need to understand if hiring a particular coach will bring about a significant change in style compared to the previous coach who was sacked. This decision may not always be ideal, but the club may intentionally choose this path, being fully aware that the playing squad will need to adapt to the new style."

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Instead of dictating specific actions, the purpose of data is to assist clubs in making informed decisions by providing valuable information. It offers a range of insights that highlight the potential impact on the team if they choose to hire one individual over another, emphasizing the need for certain adjustments within the playing squad.

Football clubs are now going to unprecedented lengths in ensuring that every appointment is thoroughly examined and scrutinized, as they are faced with the growing financial burden of not only coaches' salaries and transfer fees, but also player wages and transfers. Making the right decision or approaching the decision-making process with the utmost knowledge has become crucial.

According to Solhekol, owners are now using drone footage of training sessions to thoroughly evaluate prospective managers, observing their interactions with players, training methods, and choice of formations. This meticulous approach has led to a significant transformation in the recruitment process.

"A number of clubs often hire managers without observing their coaching abilities," states Eldredge. "While they may have witnessed their performance during games, they may not have had the opportunity to see them in a coaching role.

"What if their coaching involvement is minimal? Could they be the type of manager who simply observes and supervises at the training ground while delegating most coaching responsibilities to their assistants?"

"What do you really know about this candidate as a person and in their role?"

Finding a coach which fits your style, your squad and the environment at your club has never been more important.

The role of data in the manager search

In order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of a head coach, clubs are utilizing data analysis to delve into the statistics, aiming to make comparisons between coaches and contextualize their accomplishments.

"Data holds great significance," emphasizes Eldredge.

"Is relying solely on a manager's win percentage a reliable indicator of their capability? Consider this: if the win percentage appears low, it could be attributed to the fact that the manager has consistently faced relegation battles. However, despite these challenging circumstances, they have managed to successfully keep the team from being relegated. Hence, there is an important aspect to acknowledge.

On the other hand, if a manager's win percentage is significantly high, say above 50 percent for one or two seasons, it could be attributed to the fact that they were managing a club that consistently won numerous games. But was this level of success expected?

What were the manager's actual duties compared to the club's expectations?

Furthermore, it can be analyzed in more depth. What is the average age of the teams that the manager has previously coached? Does this align with your club? If the manager favors working with older, more experienced players, while your team is predominantly young, does the manager conform to the club's profile or philosophy?

What are his possession statistics? Is it of any significance to you? How frequently do his teams advance to the final third? Has the manager handled clubs similar to yours in the past?

Furthermore, this data research can be combined with other forms of analysis to provide clubs with a comprehensive assessment of whether or not a coach is suitable.

"If you were evaluating a player, you would typically analyze their videos and observe their performance in various game situations," states Eldredge. "So, why not apply the same approach when considering a manager?

"Isn't it important to witness a manager's team playing in an away game? How does the manager strategize in a high-stakes match like a derby or a crucial playoff game? How does the manager's approach differ at home? And what is the public opinion about the manager from the perspective of the fans?"

"Take it all in because you can't get that over video and you can't get that necessarily from data.

"And then you put everything together and make the decision."

Opening up the talent pool

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It is rare to see Black managers in the Premier League - but Burnley boss Vincent Kompany will be there this season

The utilization of data in recruitment not only assists clubs in choosing a more appropriate coach, but it also has the potential to enhance diversity in the coaching staff. Despite the fact that black players comprise 43 percent of those participating in the Premier League and 34 percent in the EFL, a study conducted by The Black Footballers Partnership reveals that black professional football coaches make up less than five percent across all divisions in England.

Eldredge acknowledges that data can assist in selecting top candidates, but acknowledges that the ultimate decision lies with the individuals at the end of the chain.

"I hope that football will become more merit-based, where we assess a manager's statistics and performance without considering their identity or background," Eldredge states.

As individuals, we naturally tend to focus on certain characteristics and have preconceived biases. These biases are not necessarily related to race or ethnicity. For instance, we may lean towards a manager who is loud, assertive, and an effective communicator, as opposed to someone who is more reserved and supportive. However, our preference based on such biases may not always result in the most qualified candidate, as the second individual may actually have better statistics.

The use of data in decision-making can contribute to diversity by providing transparent and indisputable figures. However, other aspects of evaluation remain subjective. Despite having favorable statistics, personal preferences may still influence our choices. In such cases, how do we proceed?

"If that person has the final say, they will choose that individual.

"Furthermore, is it not possible within the next two decades to have a female manager in the realm of men's football? Take Emma Hayes, for instance, as she is arguably the most accomplished and well-known figure. If there was a club that aligned with her personality and preferred style of play, why should it not be a possibility?"

The value of a manager

Nevertheless, one might argue that reaching the pinnacle of the women's game is sufficient reason for not transferring to the men's game. This opens up a broader discussion, but I have personally noticed a significant shift in the hiring process where it is no longer limited to acquaintances or people you already know.

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Chelsea and Bayern Munich invested a significant amount of money to acquire Graham Potter and Julian Nagelsmann, respectively. Chelsea spent £21.5m to secure Potter's release from his contract with Brighton, while Bayern Munich paid €25m to RB Leipzig for Nagelsmann's transfer.

The rising cost of the essential and in-demand coach is raising questions about the value of a manager. Additionally, there is a curiosity about how the fees that their current clubs can demand may increase in the future. According to Eldredge, "Clubs obviously aim to safeguard their asset, which is evident from the compensation figures."

The fees for managers are relatively lower when compared to players. For instance, if you are a Championship club, spending £1m-£1.5m to release a manager from their current contract seems like a reasonable investment. It makes sense to pay a fee for a manager who aligns with your playing style and the overall philosophy of your football club.

"The emphasis is not solely on attaining success, but also on safeguarding the club against potentially expensive errors in the long term."

Many agents have expressed their reluctance to represent managers due to the absence of a transfer fee, believing it to be not worth their while. However, the notable cases of managers like Potter moving from Brighton to Chelsea, where significant compensation was paid by Chelsea to Brighton, illustrate otherwise.

Does the market have room for a manager like Pep Guardiola? Personally, I doubt it, as he has the authority to dictate his preferred working environment.

"I just think it's different for managers and players."