The GOP Presidential Race Reaches a Pivotal Stage

The Republican presidential candidates are resuming their campaigning efforts as time dwindles to prove they can address the crucial question of the 2024 primary race: if they have the ability to defeat Donald Trump. The competition is reaching a critical juncture where polls, heated arguments among candidates, and media coverage of internal campaign conflicts no longer hold significance. This is because on January 15, voters in the Iowa Republican caucuses will begin determining who will represent them in the November election.

Following a brief Christmas hiatus, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are hosting events on Thursday in New Hampshire and Iowa, crucial states for their unlikely GOP nomination campaigns. Meanwhile, the leading GOP contender is spending the holidays ramping up his unorthodox and often peculiar 2024 campaign. Facing 91 criminal charges across four cases, the former president sent a bitter Christmas message to his opponents, telling them to "ROT IN HELL," as he continues to battle legal issues that are closely tied to his White House aspirations.

He expressed his satisfaction with the Michigan Supreme Court's decision not to prevent him from being on the ballot due to the Constitution's prohibition against insurrectionists holding office. The Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the ballot is being appealed to the US Supreme Court by the state Republican Party, and Trump is anticipated to file his own appeal shortly.

In a puzzling indication of Trump's authoritarian intentions, he shared a word cloud on social media indicating that the term voters most closely link with his potential second term is "revenge."

Joe Biden is currently enjoying a New Year's vacation in the US Virgin Islands, taking a moment of peace before a critical year that will determine whether he will be a one-term president or be reelected. Despite low approval ratings and a gloomy national mood, as well as concerns about his age and signs of division within his 2020 coalition, Trump's extreme behavior may be inadvertently working in his favor for a potential 2024 run by highlighting the dangers of allowing his predecessor back into the Oval Office.

Meanwhile, Haley would typically be gaining momentum at this point in a normal campaign, with the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire GOP primary on the horizon. Her gradual rise in polls and support from donors, largely due to strong debate performances and astute political positioning, has given her momentum in the Granite State, where she presents a strong case as the most viable anti-Trump candidate. However, with the former president maintaining a strong grip on the GOP, it would take a significant upset in the upcoming nominating contests to do anything more than establish the runner-up to Trump.

As a critical moment approaches for Haley's strategy, she has opted to criticize Trump obliquely as an agent of chaos, rather than focusing on his greatest potential general election weaknesses - the four criminal trials looming over him and his false claims about the 2020 election. Haley has been hesitant to directly admonish Trump in order to avoid alienating the GOP primary voters, among whom he remains hugely popular. Although this tactic might work for her in New Hampshire, she will still face a showdown in South Carolina, where Trump is massively popular. In the coming days, Haley plans to appear repeatedly with New Hampshire's popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed her and believes his state will reshape the GOP primary race to begin Trump's slow eclipse. During one appearance in the Granite State, a voter confronted Haley for not mentioning slavery when asking about the cause of the Civil War.

DeSantis fights for political survival

The likelihood of anyone posing a serious challenge to the former president is reduced by the number of candidates in the GOP field. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has pledged to continue in the race, launching a significant ad campaign in New Hampshire on Thursday to push back against calls for him to withdraw. Biotech tycoon Vivek Ramaswamy, who has vehemently denied speculations that his team's decision to cease advertising signals a failing campaign, stated on Fox News Wednesday, "We're committed to seeing this through to the very end."

Over the Christmas and New Year holiday in 2022, DeSantis celebrated a strong re-election win in a challenging year for Republicans. However, he faced setbacks in 2023, with struggles on the campaign trail and in super PAC operations suggesting that he may not be prepared for national politics.

Focusing his efforts on Iowa in the coming weeks, DeSantis is aware that a strong performance could revitalize his campaign, while a poor showing could effectively end it. In an interview with the conservative Newsmax network, DeSantis appealed to evangelical voters in Iowa, emphasizing his faith and the state's "basic decency." He expressed his belief in the area's patriotism and God-fearing population, seeing potential for a successful comeback.

DeSantis, who has already toured all 99 counties in Iowa, will kick off a statewide blitz on Thursday with events in Ankeny and Marion. He will then join Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who provided him with a crucial endorsement, in Clayton County in eastern Iowa on Friday.

In recent months, polling in both early states has indicated that Trump remains a strong front-runner and is poised to make a return to Washington, despite leaving in disgrace following the attack on the US Capitol by his supporters. Trump's strong support among grassroots GOP voters, influence over Republican lawmakers in Washington, and the reluctance of primary opponents to openly challenge him, all indicate that his control over the GOP is as strong as it was four years ago, despite his increasingly extreme behavior and rhetoric drawing comparisons to the Nazis in 1930s Germany. Trump is anticipated to hold a series of events in Iowa leading up to the caucuses, with his campaign and surrogates intensifying attacks on Haley as she gains traction in New Hampshire.

Trump seems as strong as ever

The 2024 primary campaign conducted by Trump has been unprecedented in presidential bid history. His path back to the White House is focused more on legal actions rather than following a traditional political schedule. During the holiday season, he was preoccupied with special counsel Jack Smith, who is leading a federal investigation into Trump's interference in the 2020 election. The trial is set to begin in early March, just before Super Tuesday, although Trump's efforts to establish immunity from prosecution as a former president through the appeals courts could potentially delay the start date.

The former president is expected to escalate the dispute to the US Supreme Court, highlighting the potential for the justices to become entangled in a politically charged series of conflicts over the 2024 election.

The ongoing clash between Trump and Smith reached a new level of hostility when the special counsel, in a court filing on Wednesday, urged the judge to prevent Trump from introducing false information in the upcoming trial, in order to prevent biasing the jury and distorting the factual record. Trump has tied his legal defense to his 2024 campaign, asserting that he is being unfairly targeted by the Biden administration.

Biden faces stiff reelection winds

Trump's focus is also on the recent ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, just before the holiday, which stated that he cannot appear on the ballot due to violating the 14th Amendment's prohibition on insurrectionists. However, the contradictory ruling in Michigan on Wednesday indicates that this is a contentious issue. With the lower courts lacking a clear direction, it is likely that the matter will be brought before the US Supreme Court.

The final phase of the primary race is taking place amid a contentious political backdrop that will influence the landscape of a potential contest between Biden and the eventual GOP nominee. Numerous polls conducted over the past year indicate that voters are not enthusiastic about the idea of a Trump versus Biden rematch in 2024.

Although recent polls showing Trump leading the president in key swing states caused concern among Democrats, the former president's track record of alienating suburban and moderate voters makes him a risky choice for Republicans. Indeed, Haley's campaign emphasizes surveys indicating that she would fare much better than Trump in a general election against Biden. However, her path to the Republican nomination appears to be fraught with challenges.

While the US economy is growing and creating jobs at a stronger rate than most Western economies, high interest rates have led to financial difficulties for many, causing a negative public sentiment. Although recent data indicates that inflation is returning to normal, the prices of essential items remain elevated compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, contributing to pessimistic views on the economy as the election year approaches.

President Biden is also facing challenges on the global stage, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine testing his foreign policy credentials and providing fodder for Republican criticism. Additionally, there are signs that support for the President is waning among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, posing a risk to the White House.

Trump's Christmas social media posts continue to reinforce the central message of the president's reelection campaign: that the threat he poses to American democracy, free elections, and fundamental American values means he should not be trusted with presidential power again. This is why Biden's team capitalized on Trump's use of the word "cloud" on his Truth Social account, featuring words like "revenge" and "dictatorship."

"In a statement, the Biden campaign said, "Donald Trump wants to become president in order to seek revenge on his enemies - and he's not even attempting to conceal it."