The Future Implications of the Israel-Hamas Truce Collapse
The Israel-Hamas truce is over Brace for potential escalation as experts foresee a resurgence of urban warfare, potentially intensifying the conflict
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The seven-day truce between Israel and Hamas came to an end on Friday as negotiations stalled and Israel accused the Palestinian militant group of violating the agreement by firing at Israel.
The lull in fighting followed a nearly eight-week war which resulted in widespread destruction and over 14,800 casualties in Gaza, as reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the West Bank, drawing data from Hamas-run health authorities in the Gaza Strip. The United States has emphasized to Israel that the scale of devastation should not be repeated in the next round of fighting.
Israeli soldiers and their military vehicles convene at the Gaza Strip border on November 30, 2023, during the 7th day of a ceasefire following clashes between Israel and Hamas militants. The truce has been extended by one more day, allowing for the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of aid to the heavily affected Gaza Strip. (Image credit: GIL COHEN-MAGEN / AFP)
Israel has resumed combat operations in Gaza following the collapse of a hostage truce, leading to fresh fighting. Analysts believe that the fighting will continue until Hamas is defeated, and it may be even more intense this time.
The Israeli military announced the resumption of fighting just moments after the expiration of the truce between Israel and Hamas. As part of the deal, hostages held in Gaza were exchanged for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed this week that Israel would continue fighting until the end. Before the truce ended, the government informed the US that it intended to shift its focus to the southern part of the enclave once the fighting resumed.
Benny Gantz, who is part of the war cabinet, said Wednesday the fighting would "expand to wherever it is needed throughout the Strip. There will be no cities of refuge."
Israeli minister Benny Gantz in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 28.
Abir Sultan/Reuters
It is uncertain whether there will be another truce, but analysts say that if both parties agree to release 10 hostages for every additional day of the truce, it could potentially be extended for several days. The majority of the hostages still in Hamas captivity are women and children, according to the prime minister's office, with 20 women and 2 individuals under the age of 18 among the 137 people believed to be held.
On November 24, 2023, Israeli security forces were seen standing next to ambulances at the helipad of Tel Aviv's Schneider medical centre. This was part of the preparations for the release of Israeli hostages who were being held by Hamas in Gaza.
Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images
Who are the hostages released so far in the Israel-Hamas deal?
Hamas killed over 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped approximately 240 others during the attack on October 7, according to Israeli authorities. Despite Israel's decision to resume its operation, negotiations with Qatari and Egyptian mediators for the release of the hostages are still ongoing, as reported by a source familiar with the talks to CNN.
According to Yaakov Amidror, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies and former National Security Adviser to Netanyahu, Israel has paid a significant cost for the temporary ceasefire, as it allowed Hamas to regain strength and slowed down the IDF's progress. Amidror stated that despite this setback, Israel was willing to pay the price in order to secure the release of hostages, and is now prepared for more aggressive fighting to make up for lost ground.
What happens next?
The US now is piling pressure on Israel to avoid mass civilian casualties in the next round of fighting.
During a televised news conference in Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the urgency of preventing the large-scale loss of civilian life and displacement seen in northern Gaza from happening again in the south. He also stated that he had communicated to Israel the importance of implementing humanitarian protection measures to protect hospitals, power stations, and other facilities, and noted that Prime Minister Netanyahu had agreed to take action to protect civilians.
It is unclear how the manifestation of that will occur.
According to Frank Lowenstein, who served as Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations under US President Barack Obama during the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, whether Israel follows the US advice "will be a strong indicator of our actual influence over the Israelis."
Palestinians carry belongings as they move to safer areas following the resumption of Israeli strikes on Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip on Friday.
According to Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images, if Israel employs the same military tactics in the south as it did in the north, it may result in heightened conflict with the Biden administration. It is likely that Israel will adjust its approach to avoid a public dispute and may take measures to moderate their actions in the future.
Officials from the Biden administration have been in talks with Israeli officials about finding ways to keep civilians safe in southern Gaza if the IDF decides to target the area again, according to US officials who spoke with CNN. One option being discussed is moving displaced civilians from the south back to the north once military operations have ceased. Israel has cautioned displaced Palestinians against returning to the north, citing ongoing safety concerns in the area.
It is unclear how hundreds of thousands of displaced residents can return to the north, where up to half of homes have been destroyed, satellite analysis shows.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, Thursday, November 30, 2023.
Saul Loeb/AP
The Biden administration is taking a major step to rework Israel's campaign against Hamas.
Friday saw the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) dropping leaflets in Khan Younis, the largest city in southern Gaza, designating it as a "combat area" and urging residents to "evacuate without delay."
According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), nearly 920,000 internally displaced people are currently residing in Khan Younis, Rafah, and the Middle governorates in the south. This accounts for over 80% of Gaza's population, with an estimated 1.8 million people having been displaced across the Strip since October 7.
Former Israeli hostage negotiator and channel to Hamas, Gershon Baskin, expressed doubt that Gazans will be able to return to their homes in the north, as many of these neighborhoods are no longer habitable. He believes that the war will not come to an end without the Israeli military taking action in the southern areas, particularly in Khan Younis and Rafah.
Urban warfare
"The fighting will 'definitely be different' if it moves to the south," stated Riad Kahwaji, the founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, a strategy and security consultancy located in Dubai.
That area of Gaza, as per Kahwaji's CNN interview, is highly congested. "This particular zone was declared as a safe area, and Israel requested nearly a million Palestinians residing in the northern area to move to the south, citing ongoing military operations in the north, despite continued bombardment in the south," he stated.
Palestinian children weave through the rubble of houses decimated by Israeli airstrikes during the conflict, amidst a temporary ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on November 29, 2023. (Source: REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)
The US is urging Israel to relocate civilians if they plan to launch an attack in southern Gaza. The exact nature of Israel's operation in the region is unclear, but there are concerns that Israel may have difficulty maintaining support from Western countries if there are images of widespread violence and destruction coming out of Gaza.
"He said that the images of destroyed buildings and the killing of babies, along with women being dragged from under the rubble, has significantly damaged Israel's reputation. With truce extensions, Hamas may have anticipated that international pressure would force Israel to avoid restarting the war," said Baskin, the former negotiator, adding that Israeli society overwhelmingly supports an operation to eliminate Hamas.
Lowenstein, the former US ambassador, recommended that the primary focus would probably be on "establishing safe zones and safe passage in the southern region." He acknowledged that the feasibility of this approach is uncertain due to the large number of displaced civilians residing "in a very confined area."
"It is expected that the already devastating humanitarian conditions will worsen as the weather deteriorates and the health situation declines further," he added.
Palestinians come together for a search and rescue mission in the debris of buildings after the conclusion of the week-long 'humanitarian pause' in Deir Al Balah, Gaza on Friday.
Ashraf Amra/Anadolu/Getty Images
Kahwaji said one element likely to be a factor in Israels military calculations is the cost-benefit analysis of each tactic: ground operations versus air offensives.
Israel has mainly used airstrikes and targeted bombardment in its conflict with Hamas, leading to fewer troop casualties. However, if they choose to primarily use ground forces in the south to minimize civilian casualties, it will present a difficult challenge for their soldiers. "Urban warfare is the most difficult type of warfare," Kahwaji stated. "It is considered the worst scenario for any soldier on a military operation."
Amidror, former advisor to Netanyahu, stated that Israel makes efforts to reduce civilian casualties but cannot stop its military operation because Hamas uses civilians as "human shields."
Amidror posed the question, "What is your advice? To grant immunity to Hamas because they are adept at using civilians as human shields, even if it is technically impossible to fight and destroy Hamas without harming civilians?"
"From the perspective of Israel, Hamas has no immunity and we will dismantle Hamas," he stated. "If civilians in Gaza are suffering as a result, we regret that, but the responsibility lies with Hamas."
Further reporting by CNN's Stephen Collinson, Tamar Michaelis, MJ Lee, Alex Marquardt, Kaitlan Collins, and Becky Anderson.
