Unveiling the Political Turbulence: Israel's Intense Clash with Hamas Sends Shockwaves Worldwide
Israel's conflict with Hamas triggers unanticipated political shocks and global repercussions, prompting significant foreign policy ramifications
The impact of cataclysmic events, such as the Hamas assault on Israel, often leads to unforeseen political upheavals and significant strategic shifts. These rocket attacks, hostage situations, and large-scale killings taking place within Israel coincided with a crucial turning point in the global order. This turning point had been initiated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's rise as a superpower, which had already disrupted the post-Cold War era.
The world is captivated by the raw shock of recent events: civilians being killed at an Israeli music festival, heart-wrenching stories of families being torn apart, and the intense Israeli reprisal attacks on Gaza. However, the ever-changing landscape of politics is never stagnant. This sudden and violent disruption of a brief period of peace and optimism for diplomatic progress in the Middle East is already causing shifts in perspectives and strategies in Israel, the United States, the Arab world, and worldwide.
A plume of smoke rises in the sky over Gaza City during an Israeli airstrike on Monday.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
Israel is at war with Hamas. Here's what to know
The Hamas attack has been likened to the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. It was seen as a less technologically advanced assault on civilians that infiltrated the territory of a stronger and more sophisticated enemy, partly due to the lack of awareness from complacent security and political authorities.
The aftermath of that significant trauma revealed that the political and military measures implemented by leaders, once normal politics resumed, went beyond military action. These actions triggered exceptional political forces within countries like the US and Britain, shaping the current state of society and influencing elections.
Israel may find itself in a familiar position, having experienced rocket attacks and bombings in the past. However, the recent invasion by Hamas has deeply shaken Israelis' perception of their own security, reminiscent of the Yom Kippur war in 1973. This emotional violation will undoubtedly shape Israel's response in the coming days and dictate the world's reaction.
Adding to Israel's national wound is the immense political challenge now faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite positioning himself as the ultimate guarantor of Israeli security, his tenure will be remembered primarily for a devastating defeat and intelligence failures. At present, the divisions within Israeli society, exacerbated by Netanyahu's far-right coalition and controversial attempts to reform the judicial system, have temporarily united under the banner of national unity. Nonetheless, Netanyahu has the incentive to launch a strong retaliation to protect his political standing while seeking revenge for Israel's suffering. The fact that Hamas holds Israeli hostages only intensifies the situation. The long-term political consequences are impossible to foresee.
"What we will do to our enemies in the days to come will have a lasting impact on them," stated Netanyahu during a national address on Monday.
Following Netanyahu's remarks, the immediate question arose as to whether an unwavering Israeli counter-attack could effectively eradicate Hamas in Gaza in the upcoming days. However, the aftermath of 9/11 taught us that wars initiated in the chaotic weeks after an attack do not always unfold as anticipated and come with the risk of backfiring on the leaders responsible for launching them. Israel has already encountered the consequences of an invasion of densely populated Gaza, which consists of sprawling refugee camps. Similarly, the Bush administration's war on terror post-9/11 resulted in lingering effects such as war weariness and skepticism towards the government, which ultimately contributed to the presidencies of Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
The world will have to react to Israelis reaction
: The echoes of those feelings remain. By announcing his candidacy for the presidency as an independent candidate on Monday, a move that has the potential to cause unforeseeable consequences in crucial swing states, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vociferously criticized the military industrial complex and the "continuous series of wars" that has persisted for over two decades since the tragic events of 9/11.Israel's next actions are of utmost importance. Thus far, there has been a prevailing sense of empathy and horror. However, if Israel's retaliation against Hamas results in a higher number of civilian casualties in Gaza or if the blockade leads to prolonged water and electricity shortages, it may lead to a shift in political dynamics even within allied nations, where public monuments are adorned with white and blue lights.
Joe Biden, one of the most pro-Israel Democratic presidents in recent history, is expected to address the attacks in a televised speech on Tuesday. Despite the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not visited the White House during Biden's presidency, their animosity seems to have been put aside. Netanyahu claims to have maintained constant communication with Biden since the attacks. The United States is rapidly deploying defense materials and ammunition to Israel, along with intelligence support for hostage rescue operations. As a demonstration of solidarity and a deterrent to Israel's adversaries, Washington is relocating an aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean.
U.S. President Joe Biden addresses the Israel conflict following the largest attack by Hamas in recent history, delivering a statement on the crisis at the White House in Washington, U.S., on October 7, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
How Republicans are trying to blame Biden for the attacks on Israel
However, in the upcoming weeks, there may be a divergence of interests between the United States and Israel. If evidence arises showing that Iran, through its proxy Hamas, directly planned the attacks, there will be immense pressure on Netanyahu to launch a direct strike against Iran. The US, on the other hand, will be concerned about the potential scale of such an action. As President Biden begins his reelection campaign, getting dragged into another Middle East war is the last thing he needs.
President Biden also needs to defend himself politically, particularly against the GOP's attempts to portray him as old and weak. Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, immediately seized upon the Hamas attacks, aiming to place blame on Biden for his efforts to defuse tensions with Iran. Trump also tried to connect the volatile issue of the southern border with events in the Middle East, baselessly claiming that the "same people" attacking Israel were infiltrating the United States. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, another GOP presidential contender, echoed this accusation, stating that Biden was "complicit" in "this actual war against Israel."
Republicans are using the release of $6 billion in Iranian funds, obtained through a deal to free US hostages, as a political weapon. Despite the administration's assurance that the money remains unused and can only be spent on humanitarian and medical supplies with strict international oversight, Republicans are distorting the truth in order to shape public opinion. This aggressive political tactic has proven effective in the past, as evidenced by the continuous conservative media coverage of Biden's handling of the turbulent US military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Though many voters may not have a deep understanding of the intricacies of the situation, they view it as a symbol of incompetence.
Furthermore, Biden needs to consider the potential political consequences from the left. Progressive Democrats have become increasingly critical of Israel in recent years due to its treatment of Palestinians in Gaza (controlled by Hamas) and the West Bank (led by the Palestinian Authority), as well as the far-right leaning nature of Netanyahu's coalition, which is the most right-wing government in Israeli history. As Biden's own party has expressed doubt about his re-election bid, he cannot afford to lose the support of progressive voters in the upcoming year.
Far reaching foreign policy consequences
The Israeli turmoil could also have a negative impact on Biden's legacy. His attempts to facilitate a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which could potentially reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, appear to be at a standstill. With the ongoing Israeli reprisal attacks in Gaza resulting in the deaths of numerous Palestinians, Saudi Arabia lacks the political space to engage in negotiations with Netanyahu. Moreover, Netanyahu himself has limited capacity to make difficult territorial concessions to the Palestinians in the West Bank, which would likely be necessary for the realization of the proposed agreement. The potential historic significance of this deal is one reason why Iran may have been motivated to support Hamas' attack, despite the lack of concrete evidence of its involvement provided by the US at this point.
The attack on Israel could also have a negative impact on another one of Biden's priorities - the war in Ukraine. While Israel will receive more advanced weapons from the US, such as interceptors for Iron Dome, a prolonged regional war could further strain the already depleted US reserve armories due to shipments to Ukraine. Biden may attempt to draw parallels between US support for Israel and his support for Ukraine, another sovereign democratic nation facing external attack. However, Republicans who are already opposed to providing more aid to Ukraine are likely to argue that Washington should prioritize its long-standing ally and cannot afford to assist both.
These developments could potentially lead to broader strategic political ramifications. The US has been trying to shift its focus away from the Middle East and towards Asia for the past fifteen years. However, if Beijing and Moscow perceive that America is becoming distracted by the region once again, it could create opportunities for US adversaries. The possibility of China, Russia, and Iran aligning against the United States has long been a concern for US foreign policy experts. While there is no official anti-US alliance among these three adversaries, as the world seems to be dividing into democratic and autocratic blocs, the authoritarian leaders in these countries have discovered military, economic, and strategic synergies based on their shared opposition to Washington. If the US faces challenges or weaknesses in Europe, the Middle East, or the Asia-Pacific region, all three countries could stand to benefit.
Everything in politics and international relations is interconnected, causing one action to trigger a series of reactions. Therefore, the impact of the Israel-Gaza war will extend beyond the confines of the Middle East.
