Survey Indicates Palestinians Back Hamas' War Stance Against Israel as No Political Resolution Seems Imminent
Survey indicates majority of Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank support Hamas' decision to engage in armed conflict with Israel, as they perceive no viable political resolution in sight
Al-Manara Square is the heart of Ramallah, where six roads intersect and pedestrians navigate confidently through the bustling roundabout, often causing cars to yield. Despite its constant activity, the square serves as a gathering place for protesters and serves as a reminder of the ongoing crisis in Gaza, with images from the war prominently displayed on banners and fences. When CNN visited on a Sunday morning, the square was filled with people going about their daily routines, showcasing the resilience of the community.
One poster with a picture of rescue workers clearing rubble states, "This destruction is a reflection of the world's conscience."
Meanwhile, another photo shows ambulances outside a hospital, with the message, "Medical Heroes demand action: Stop the Massacre in Gaza!"
In his office just a mile away, Khalil Shikaki is surrounded by desks and shelves stacked with paperwork as he ponders the conflict. According to Shikaki, Palestinians overwhelmingly back Hamas' choice to engage in war with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz, held a press conference at the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 28, 2023. (ABIR SULTAN POOL/Pool via REUTERS)
Abir Sultan/Pool/Reuters/File
Netanyahus mission: Destroy Hamas, bring hostages home - and get reelected
The latest survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) has revealed the attitudes of Palestinians. A total of 750 adults from the West Bank and 481 from Gaza were personally interviewed. Data collection in Gaza was carried out during the recent truce for the safety of the researchers.
Survey results show that almost 72% of respondents believe that Hamas' decision to attack Israel on October 7th was "correct," with only 22% stating that it was "incorrect." The survey has a margin of error of four points instead of the usual three.
But that doesnt mean support for atrocities, he adds. "No one should see this as support for any atrocities that might have been committed by Hamas on that day."
Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, in his office in Ramallah.
Abeer Salman/CNN
"Palestinians refuse to consider diplomacy and negotiations as viable options, believing that violence and armed struggle are the only means to lift the siege and blockade over Gaza and end the Israeli occupation," Shikaki stated.
This crucial distinction is highlighted by three data points from the polls. Nearly 80% of respondents informed PCPSR researchers that killing women and children in their homes constitutes a war crime.
A majority (85%) of respondents reported not watching videos from international news outlets showing acts committed by Hamas on October 7 - possibly explaining why only 10% of those surveyed believed Hamas had committed war crimes that day. Palestinians, like Israelis, are influenced by their media to a significant degree. Shikaki also suggests that there may be a desire to avoid other sources to maintain deniability, as denial can be comforting during stressful and painful times.
Separated territories, divergent attitudes
Conducting polls in a conflict area presents challenges, especially during periods of calm. Gathering input from residents in the central and southern parts of the territory was relatively easy, as many were still in their homes. However, reaching out to those in the northern region of Gaza proved to be more difficult, as a large number of them had been forced to seek refuge in shelters.
Since 1948, Gaza and the West Bank, now known as the Palestinian territories, have been physically divided. Over the years, this division has deepened, making it increasingly difficult for Palestinians to travel between the two regions. Since 2005, when Israel withdrew its soldiers and settlers from Gaza and restricted access with assistance from Egypt, the daily lives of Palestinians in Gaza have become even more distinct from those in the West Bank.
The territories are divided politically, with the Palestinian Authority led by aging President Mahmoud Abbas having partial control over the West Bank, and Hamas controlling Gaza - that is until Israel invaded. These divisions are evident in the surveyed attitudes, especially regarding the use of violence.
Photos of children killed in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza are displayed on railings in Al-Manara Square in Ramallah.
Abeer Salman/CNN
In Gaza, there has been a slight increase in support for armed struggle from 50% in September 2022 (a year prior to the current conflict) to 56% in December 2023. Conversely, in the West Bank, there has been a significant rise in support for armed struggle, increasing from 35% in September 2022 to 54% in September 2023 (a month before the conflict began). In the current month, support for armed struggle in the West Bank has surged to 68%.
Shikaki suggests that these differences indicate the increase in assaults by aggressive Jewish settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank, a situation that has prompted criticism from the US and Europe. There is also a widespread feeling that Israel's current hard-right government is not particularly concerned about this state of affairs.
Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli military prison Ofer react from inside a vehicle near Ramallah in the West Bank on November 26, 2023, as part of a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)
The release of Palestinian prisoners highlights the contentious Israeli justice system in the West Bank. Hamas is gaining increasing support, particularly among West Bank Palestinians, with the militant group's backing as a political party skyrocketing from 12% to 44% between September 2023 and December 2023.
Support in besieged Gaza has remained relatively stable at 38% in September and 42% in December. Meanwhile, Fatah, the secular-nationalist party of Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas, has seen its support drop from 26% to 17% across the territories.
Support for Abbas himself is even lower - so low, in fact, that he is seen as almost entirely discredited.
Out of denial, towards a reckoning?
Shikaki warns against overstating the increased support for Hamas, at least for the time being. As more Palestinians confront the brutal acts committed by Hamas on October 7, attitudes could shift, although this is unlikely to occur as long as Gaza continues to face heavy assaults.
Another significant factor is the number of individuals who have seen videos from October 7 and the disparities between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In Gaza, 25% of respondents reported watching these videos, with 16% acknowledging that Hamas had committed war crimes. In the West Bank, only 7% reported watching the videos and 1% said that Hamas had committed war crimes.
Shikaki notes that Gaza is transitioning out of denial at a faster pace than the West Bank, which will lead to a reckoning for Hamas. Currently, only 38% of Gazans support the return of the militant group to governance after the war.
An Israeli flag flies among debris in Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel, on December 12, 2023.
Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters
But it's not just the increased awareness of events on a single day that's important. It also matters what happens when politics restarts after the war is over, and whether Palestinians have any political prospects.
In a time when people believe that the only way to get Israel to end the occupation is by causing pain and suffering to Israelis, Palestinians see Hamas as the party with the most capability to effectively deliver violence, according to Shikaki.
Alternatively, "Offering the Palestinians the opportunity to negotiate an end to Israeli occupation and establish a Palestinian state could likely reduce support for Hamas to levels lower than pre-war," according to the expert. Support for the two-state solution has remained relatively steady at 32% to 34% across Gaza and the West Bank over the last three months, though historically these figures are still low. Previous PCPSR polling has indicated that between 70% and 80% support the idea of an independent Palestine alongside the state of Israel.
US President Joe Biden is attempting to persuade both Israelis and Palestinians of the importance of negotiations, stating last month that "I don't think (the conflict) ultimately ends until there is a two-state solution." However, Palestinians appear skeptical as nearly three-quarters (70%) of respondents do not view US discussions about Palestinian statehood as genuine. Shikaki believes the reason for this skepticism is clear.
With all the power you have, no one will believe that you can't use your influence against Israel. It seems you are only giving verbal support to the two-state solution, but have no real intention of taking any action to make it happen.
