The upcoming presidential election in Russia seems to have a predictable outcome. Vladimir Putin, the leader responsible for the conflict in Ukraine, suppression of opposition, and Russia's increasing isolation, is likely to secure a fifth term as president. Despite facing numerous sanctions, Putin remains firmly in control of the country, showing no signs of losing his grip after 24 years in power.
Given the unprecedented scenes of defiance across Russia in the weeks before the vote, you might have thought differently. Thousands gathered at makeshift memorials for Alexey Navalny, a well-known Russian opposition leader who passed away suddenly in an Arctic penal colony last month.
According to a human rights group, hundreds were detained just for laying flowers in his memory.
Despite the crackdown, thousands of determined people still attended his funeral in Moscow. Even now, as Russia goes to the polls from Friday to Sunday, mourners continue to visit his grave site in a small act of defiance against the Kremlin.
One man outside the cemetery where Navalny is buried expressed, "Maybe if Alexey was in the election, I would vote for him. But there is nobody now." He chose not to reveal his identity out of fear of facing consequences.
“I will go to vote, but now maybe just write his name,” he added, suggesting he will spoil his ballot.
Commuters travel on a themed metro train dedicated to the upcoming presidential election in Moscow on February 27, 2024. The slogan reads: "Together we are a force - vote for Russia!"
Commuters in Moscow ride a special metro train that is decorated with a theme for the upcoming presidential election on February 27, 2024. The train features a slogan that says: "Together we are a force - vote for Russia!" Vera Savina/AFP/Getty Images
Other Navalny supporters told CNN that they also plan to follow suit, however, many doubt that it will have a significant impact.
Yulia, a young woman who recently placed flowers on Navalny's grave, expressed her hope for change in Russia, although she understands that it may not happen quickly.
"Even though Alexey Navalny has passed away, there is still hope," she mentioned. "I believe there are always individuals who do not back Vladimir Putin," she continued.
However, there are also many Russians who do support him, at least for the time being.
Putin has improved Russia significantly. Despite being seen as a pariah in the West, with an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, his "special military operation" in Ukraine causing numerous casualties, and facing hardships and suppressions at home, his approval ratings remain high.
On February 29, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, Russia. It has been just over two years since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin is anticipated to win re-election in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Elections, which are set for March.
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The latest polling, from the respected Levada Center in Moscow, puts public trust in Putin at an astonishing 86%.
In a country where critics are often punished, public opinion polls may not always be accurate. Additionally, state-controlled media in Russia frequently promotes pro-Kremlin propaganda, influencing the news that most Russians receive.
However, as the election draws near, it is important to listen to the perspectives of ordinary Russians when engaging in discussions face to face.
In the suburbs of northern Moscow, there is a large Soviet-era exhibition park hosting "Russia" - a display of the country's accomplishments in industry, agriculture, the arts, and warfare.
This exhibition center attracts tens of thousands of visitors every week, many of whom are domestic tourists exploring the capital with their families, reminiscent of pilgrims traveling from all corners of Russia. It is worth noting that while Navalny's funeral drew significant attendance, the number of people visiting this exhibition center surpasses it by far.
Everyone CNN spoke with there was stridently pro-Putin.
Dmitry, left, a real estate worker from the Komi Republic, says he supports President Vladimir Putin.
Dmitry, left, a real estate worker from the Komi Republic, says he supports President Vladimir Putin.
CNN
Dmitry, a 41-year-old real estate worker from the Komi Republic in Russia's far north, expressed his support for Putin during his visit to Moscow with his wife. He believes that Putin has made Russia a much better country.
When asked about the war in Ukraine and Putin's role in Russia's involvement, Dmitry stated that he does not hold Putin responsible. He and his wife stand behind Putin's decisions and believe that victory will ultimately belong to Russia. Dmitry even mentioned that he is willing to fight if needed.
Sergey, a 25-year-old office worker, shared that he felt confident about the stability and security of his job, especially with the good health benefits it provided. Despite international sanctions on Russia, he firmly believed that the country's economy was not negatively affected.
"I personally haven't experienced any negative effects of the sanctions as a regular Russian citizen," Sergey emphasized.
Artyom, a 30-year-old design engineer, says Putin's Russia is set on the right path.
Artyom, a 30-year-old design engineer, says Putin's Russia is set on the right path.
CNN
Artyom, a 30-year-old design engineer and an enthusiastic Putin supporter, said the war in Ukraine and the tensions with the West had put Russia on the right path.
“Russia needs to be acknowledged in the world arena; we are not a second-class country,” he said.
Unexpected challenges
Putin has been able to tap into an insecurity for a long time, successfully boosting Russian pride and improving living standards, which has gained genuine popular support over the years.
However, it is uncertain how much longer this support will continue, especially if Russian war casualties increase, crackdowns on dissent intensify, and economic hardships persist.
There have already been significant and surprising obstacles.
Before the public mourning for Navalny, many Russians showed their support for anti-war presidential candidate, Boris Nadezhdin. However, his candidacy was ultimately denied by Russian election officials.
But the thousands of signatures he collected showed that even though Putin is expected to win the next presidential election in Russia, his popularity among regular Russians may be at risk.
Editor's P/S:
The upcoming Russian presidential election highlights a stark dichotomy within the nation. While protests and defiance against Vladimir Putin's regime have emerged, his continued popularity and firm grip on power suggest a complex and evolving political landscape. The article sheds light on the diverse perspectives of Russians, from those who yearn for change to those who staunchly support Putin. It raises important questions about the sustainability of Putin's support, particularly in the face of ongoing challenges such as war casualties and economic hardships.
The article also highlights the challenges faced by opposition candidates in Russia. Despite the suppression of dissent and the denial of Boris Nadezhdin's candidacy, the public mourning for Alexey Navalny and the support for anti-war candidates demonstrate a growing undercurrent of dissatisfaction within the Russian populace. The article leaves readers pondering the potential for future political shifts and the role that ordinary Russians will play in shaping the country's trajectory.