Unbreakable Bond: Xi and Putin to Reunite in Beijing, Shifting Global Dynamics

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During the inauguration of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping presented their shared vision for a restructured global order, one that no longer revolves around the United States and its democratic allies.

Now, after almost two years, and as geopolitical tensions intensify worldwide, the two most influential autocrats on the planet are getting ready to meet once more in the Chinese capital. This gathering takes place amidst ongoing conflicts such as Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which began just three weeks after the leaders' previous meeting in Beijing, and Israel's escalating war against Hamas, which poses a risk of regional escalation.

Both Beijing and Moscow have condemned Israel's response to a recent attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, calling for an immediate ceasefire. This reflects their ongoing efforts to enhance their own leadership role, in contrast to the United States, which supports Israel's right to retaliate. Xi and Putin are expected to address this issue during their meeting this week, as Putin visits Beijing as a distinguished guest for the Belt and Road Forum—an unusual opportunity for the diplomatically isolated leader.

A rare trip

Putin, who rarely leaves the group of former Soviet nations since starting his war, is rejected by the West and wanted by an international court for alleged war crimes. Experts believe he is hesitant to travel anywhere unless he is absolutely certain of his personal security. Last week, he made his first known trip outside of areas controlled by Russia to Kyrgyzstan.

However, despite Putin's changing circumstances since his last visit to Beijing, the two leaders have increasingly come together in presenting an alternative worldview to the one offered by the West. They aim to rally more countries to support their efforts in rebalancing global power dynamics, which they believe are heavily stacked against them.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks at the China-Central Asia Summit held this past May in Xi'an.

Huang Jingwen/Xinhua/Getty Images

Beijing to host global gathering as Xi Jinping lays out China's vision

During a pre-event interview with China's state broadcaster, Putin spoke highly of Xi, describing him as steady, calm, pragmatic, and reliable—a true global leader. Putin commended Xi's unique approach to international relations, emphasizing that it does not involve imposition or coercion, but rather provides opportunities for others.

Notably, Putin and Xi's close friendship has led to 40 meetings over the past decade, including two since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In their previous meeting held in Beijing, the two leaders issued a comprehensive joint statement of friendship, spanning 5,000 words, highlighting their unwavering alignment against the West and asserting unlimited support for one another.

Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, emphasized that attending the forum presents a crucial opportunity for Putin to gain global recognition and demonstrate Russia's enduring alliance with China. He noted that it is equally politically significant for China to have a key international figure like Putin participate in the BRI summit. However, the forum, which is considered the highlight of Xi's diplomatic efforts this year, is anticipated to mainly feature leaders from less influential developing and middle income countries.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping inspects the honor guard at the Moscow Vnukovo Airport on March 20, 2023.

Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via Getty Images

No limits no more?

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia tested the China-Russia relationship in an unprecedented way, leading Western nations to closely scrutinize Beijing for its close ties to Russia and raising suspicions about whether Xi had prior knowledge of Putin's intentions. China, however, has asserted its neutrality in the conflict and actively advocated for peace. In recent months, China has intensified its efforts to be perceived as a potential mediator for peace, recognizing that its strong alliance with Russia has strained its relations with Europe and the United States.

But the second largest global economy has also become a crucial lifeline for a Russia facing economic sanctions, relying on it for various goods and energy acquisitions. As the war began, the two nations further cemented their interactions across multiple domains.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 12, 2023, in this photograph provided by Sputnik agency. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL METZEL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

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In 2023, Russia and China experienced an unprecedented surge in trade, and this trend has been continuing. Experts assert that they have further enhanced security collaboration by conducting numerous joint military exercises and engaging in meaningful official discussions. Moreover, they have continued to strengthen their diplomatic connections, exemplified by Putin and Xi's symbolic joint visit to Moscow earlier this year, marking the commencement of Xi's third term as President of China.

According to Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank in Berlin, China attempts to create a rhetorical and symbolic separation from Russia when communicating with Western audiences. However, Gabuev also acknowledges that despite not being officially labeled as a limitless partnership, the relationship between China and Russia has grown stronger, more durable, and profound in practical terms.

A Chinese naval frigate takes part in joint naval drills with Russian warships in the East China Sea in December 2022, in this photo released by Xinhua state news agency.

Xu Wei/Xinhua/AP

Push for peace?

The timing of the forum hosted in Beijing presents an opportunity for Putin to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, as Israel hints at a potential ground invasion of the Hamas-governed Gaza strip. Analysts suggest that Moscow is likely to propose a United Nations Security Council resolution for a ceasefire, without specifically mentioning Hamas. In a recent statement, Russia's UN envoy compared Israel's continuous shelling of Hamas-controlled Gaza to the brutal siege of Leningrad during World War II.

US President Joe Biden referred to the Hamas attack over the weekend as the most severe massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, representing the opposite side of the historical spectrum.

China has announced its intention to dispatch its envoy to the Middle East in order to promote dialogue and has denounced actions that cause harm to civilians. However, it has not specifically singled out Hamas in its statements nor directly condemned the group.

During a flurry of diplomatic calls in recent days, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Israels actions have "gone beyond the scope of self-defense."

Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands during a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 14, 2023.

China aspires to play the role of a peace mediator in the Middle East. In light of the Israel-Gaza conflict, how has China reacted? In contrast to the US, which has unequivocally expressed its unwavering support for Israel and suggested that now is not the right time for a cessation of hostilities, both countries' statements diverge.

Xi and Putin will likely address the conflict in their upcoming meeting, which is expected to include discussions on Russia's involvement in Ukraine. China has also attempted to position itself as a potential mediator in this conflict.

When it comes to China's interest in urging the Russian leader to cease his invasion, Xi may exercise caution to avoid jeopardizing their relations. This is particularly important as he is likely monitoring the potential changes in global stances towards the conflict, noting evolving attitudes in certain parts of Europe. Notably, an upcoming election in the United States next year could potentially result in a significant alteration in the level of US support for Ukraine.

Li, speaking in Singapore, noted that there is currently no indication of China's willingness to exploit its advantageous position and exert pressure on Russia. Chinese policymakers are determined to maintain a strong bond of trust between Beijing and Moscow, avoiding any hint of suspicion.

CNNs Alex Stambaugh, Mengchen Zhang and Richard Roth contributed reporting.