South Korea's Population Set to Decline to Levels Last Seen in the 1970s, Government Warns

South Korea, known for having the lowest birth rate in the world, anticipates a further decrease in the next two years, leading to an overall population decline not seen since the 1970s. This latest data highlights the pressing demographic challenge that South Korea, as well as other East Asian nations like Japan and Singapore, are grappling with as their populations age rapidly following their rapid industrialization.

The total fertility rate in South Korea is projected to decrease from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.65 in 2025, according to Statistics Korea. In a worst-case scenario, the rate could drop to 0.59 births per woman in 2026.

According to Statistics Korea, the fertility rate is projected to increase to 1.08 in 2072, which is still well below the 2.1 births per woman needed for a stable population without immigration. In contrast, the United States is expected to have a fertility rate of 1.66 births per woman this year, increasing to 1.75 by 2030, but immigration will continue to drive population growth.

Many European and other developed nations are also grappling with aging populations, but immigration is helping to slow the speed and impact of this change. On the other hand, countries like South Korea, Japan, and China have opted not to use mass immigration as a solution to their working age population issues.

Due to minimal immigration, the total population of South Korea is projected to decline from 51.75 million in 2024 to 36.22 million, a level not seen since 1977, as reported by Statistics Korea.

If the worst-case scenario occurs, South Korea's population could drop to as low as 30.17 million, the same as it was in 1967, according to the agency. Regardless of the estimate used, South Korea is projected to become a significantly aged country by 2072, with the median age increasing from 44.9 in 2022 to 63.4 in 2072, Statistics Korea reported.

The annual number of newborns in the country is projected to decrease from 250,000 in 2022 to 160,000 in 2072, marking a 65% drop. South Korea's birth rate has been declining since 2015, leading to more deaths than births in 2020, a trend that has persisted.

Several other Asian countries, such as Japan and China, are also experiencing demographic declines, leading to concerns about the lack of a sufficient working-age population to support the growing number of elderly people. Experts attribute these demographic shifts to factors such as demanding work cultures, stagnant wages, increasing living costs, shifting attitudes towards marriage and gender equality, and growing disillusionment among younger generations.

North Korea is indicating concerns about its population. Leader Kim Jong Un addressed a national conference of mothers in Pyongyang and urged women to address the declining birth rate by having more children.

Kim stated that doing so shows patriotism and can accelerate our efforts to build a strong socialist country. The United Nations Population Fund predicts that North Korea's fertility rate for 2023 will be 1.8 births per woman.