South Korea's Military Faces a New Foe: Demographic Challenges
South Korea's military faces a critical challenge due to its low birth rate, potentially leaving it short of troops amidst rising tensions in the Western Pacific Analysts emphasize the urgent need to address recruitment issues and rely on technological advancements to ensure the military's effectiveness
South Korea, which has the lowest birth rate in the world, may soon face shortage of military personnel to fully staff its forces as it confronts new threats in the increasingly tense Western Pacific region, analysts suggest.
In order to combat North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, South Korea has maintained an active-duty force of approximately half a million troops. However, with a birth rate of only 0.78 children per woman over a lifetime, experts believe that South Korea has no option but to reduce the size of its forces.
A silhouette of a woman holding her baby against the backdrop of N Seoul Tower, also known as Namsan Tower, in Seoul, South Korea, is captured in this file photo from October 2, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo
Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters/File
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Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University, stated that with the current birth rate, the future is already decided and downsizing of the force is unavoidable. He also mentioned that to sustain current troop levels, the South Korean military would need to recruit or conscript 200,000 soldiers annually.
In 2022, less than 250,000 babies were born, resulting in a projected 125,000 men available for the 200,000 military positions needed in 20 years. Only 3.6% of the current Korean military consists of volunteer females, as women are not conscripted in South Korea, according to Defense Ministry figures.
And the annual number of newborns is only forecasted to drop further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, according to Statistics Korea.
Preparing for two decades
South Korea has been preparing for its declining birth rate, a trend that the military saw coming. In early 2000s, Seoul made the decision to decrease the number of active soldiers from 674,000 in 2006 to 500,000 by 2020, with the goal of promoting a smaller but more elite military force based on the premise that the threat from North Korea would gradually diminish, as stated in a 2022 defense white paper.
South Koreas military has reached that goal, decreasing troop size by 27.6% in two decades, from 2002 to 2022.
But the premise that the threat from North Korea would diminish has proven false.
The North Korean flag waves in the propaganda village of Gijungdong in North Korea, as seen in this photograph taken near the truce village of Panmunjom within the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that divides South Korea and North Korea, on February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji
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Kim Jong Un, the third in his family dynasty to rule, took power in Pyongyang in 2011. Despite occasional peaceful periods during negotiations with South Korea and the United States, he has led a significant expansion of the North Korean military, particularly in its ballistic missile programs.
After North Korea's fifth intercontinental ballistic missile test this year, Kim stated that his country would not "hesitate" to launch a nuclear attack if provoked by enemy nuclear weapons, in response to the deployment of US nuclear-capable weapons platforms in and around the Korean Peninsula, state-media KCNA reported earlier this month.
Turning to tech
If Kim were to launch an attack across the 38th parallel, which separated North and South Korea following the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, it would be the South Korean military that shoulders the primary defense responsibility.
South Korea needs to rely on science to address the North Korean threat and to transform its manpower crisis into a technological opportunity, according to experts.
Chun In-bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean Army, stated, "Korean defense authorities have long held the policy of shifting from a manpower-focused military to a technology-driven military."
The 2005 plan by South Korea's Defense Ministry aimed to transform its military into a science and technology-focused force by 2020, but little progress has been made. "Despite efforts to make the transition, there was a lack of urgency due to the abundance of human resources in South Korea's conscripts," Choi explained.
Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, is depicted attending a reported launching event for a new tactical nuclear attack submarine in North Korea. The photo was released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 8, 2023.
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Russia's conflict in Ukraine has proven that simply having a large number of troops is not sufficient on the contemporary battlefield. Despite Russia's ground force consisting of 360,000 soldiers, including contract and conscript personnel, a recent assessment by the US Defense Department revealed that Moscow has lost 315,000 troops in the conflict. Ukraine's deployment of drones and advanced weapons provided by Western allies has significantly impacted Russia's superior force.
South Korea has prioritized the integration of cutting-edge technologies into its military units. In a phased approach, the Defense Ministry announced plans to transition to an AI-based manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) combat system, and has introduced the Army TIGER brigade, known as a "future unit", that combines manpower and unmanned equipment to accomplish missions.
South Korea has also been developing unmanned military equipment, including the medium-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle (MUAV) and unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).
Experts say troops are indispensable
Chun, the former South Korean general, believes that technology is not a cure-all. He points out that manpower is still necessary to take and maintain control of territory, and that well-trained and educated individuals are essential for operating and supervising artificial intelligence (AI) systems in a battlefield setting.
Chun expressed doubt about the sufficiency of technology, stating, "No matter how we try, it's not going to be enough. It will help, but it won't solve the problem of our lack of personnel."
Both he and Choi have strategies for maximizing the output of a reduced military force.
Chun stated the need to improve the mobilization system in order to effectively utilize the conscription system and the reserve component it provides. "We should be able to access the significant reserve population we have," Chun emphasized.
After completing their mandatory 18 to 21 months of military service, South Korean men transition to reservist status for eight years. Throughout this period, they are called into assigned units annually to reinforce their roles and responsibilities. Additionally, they are required to participate in civil defense training every year until the age of 40.
South Korean Marines look inland after a beach landing rehearsal for Exercise Ssang Yong on March 28 in Pohang, South Korea.
Brad Lendon/CNN
The system now gives South Korea 3.1 million reserve troops.
Reservists must attend a two-night, three-day training session every year.
One proposed pilot program involves select reservists training for 180 days each year to enhance their skills.
Another option is to increase the number of professional cadres - including commissioned, warrant, and non-commissioned officers - who are all volunteers and serve longer terms. During this extended service, they would receive training in operating advanced weapons to prevent any reduction in combat capability despite the decrease in standing forces, as outlined in the 2022 white paper.
The Defense Ministry reported that the percentage of cadres within the military's total force has risen from 31.6% in 2017 to 40.2% in 2022. It further stated that there are plans for this ratio to increase to 40.5% by 2027.
A recruitment problem
One issue with this plan is that the population is not fully on board. According to data from the Defense Ministry, the number of applicants for commissioned officer positions has decreased from approximately 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022.
Choi noted that the military is struggling to recruit exceptional entry-level professional cadres, who would eventually become the foundation of an outstanding officer corps in the next 10 to 20 years. He attributed the declining application rates to the lack of sufficient financial and social benefits for cadres. Additionally, he raised the question of whether the military should consider recruiting more women, even in a conscription-based system.
According to the Jewish Womens Archive, Israel has conscription with 40% of its conscripted force being female. In the all-volunteer US and Canadian armed forces, over 16% of the troops are women.
A mourner is seen attaching a message to a memorial wall while visiting a memorial altar for an elementary school teacher who tragically died in an apparent suicide at Seoul Seoi Elementary School in Seoul on September 4, 2023. The young South Korean teacher had been overwhelmed with angry texts and calls from parents regarding their children's treatment before her untimely death. Her suicide has sparked widespread grief, anger, and protests, with teachers speaking out against what they see as impossible working conditions in solidarity.
South Korean teachers fear their students and parents. Choi suggested conscripting women could solve the issue, but noted the traditional patriarchal society and potential cost could be major obstacles.
"He said that the cost would likely be much higher than the actual profit due to complex factors such as social costs and women giving birth. However, Chun believes that it is possible to attract women volunteers if the pay is enticing enough."
"If a soldier is earning $2,000 per month, that's a legitimate job. So, a woman would say, 'I want to be able to have that job for $2,000.' Because for the same job, she'd probably be paid $1,500 in the civilian world," he explained.
On its part, the Defense Ministry has stated that increasing the number of women who serve is one of the possibilities being considered, among other ideas.
South Korea is facing a further decline in the already low birth rate, with no set timelines for making changes. Time is of the essence for South Korea as the birth rate is expected to drop to 0.65 births per woman by 2025, as reported by Statistics Korea earlier this month.
CNNs Brad Lendon contributed to this report.
