Robert F Kennedy Jr Shakes Up Presidential Race with Independent Bid, Shattering Democratic Primary Predictions

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer and presidential candidate, made the announcement on Monday that he is running as an independent candidate for president. This decision effectively terminates his campaign against President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary and instead focuses on a challenging general election bid. Speaking in Philadelphia, Kennedy declared his candidacy for the presidency of the United States.

Kennedy's announcement follows weeks of speculation about his future in the 2024 race. Earlier this year, Kennedy met with the chair of the Libertarian Party to discuss their shared beliefs. Recently, a super PAC supporting Kennedy's presidential campaign released the results of a poll that assessed Kennedy's strength in a hypothetical three-way race against Biden and former President Donald Trump.

According to a campaign official, the campaign plans to hold a series of events in Texas, Florida, and Georgia later this month. They are committed to traveling extensively in the run-up to next year's general election. The official expressed confidence in securing ballot access in all states before November 2024.

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Previous presidential elections have shown that independent and third-party candidates have faced challenges in gaining significant support. In 1992, Ross Perot, a Texas businessman, ran as an independent candidate and achieved one of the most successful independent presidential campaigns in recent history. However, he ultimately received only 8% of the vote in the general election, which was won by Bill Clinton.

If Kennedy were to run as an independent, it could add complexity to an already closely contested general election. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed likely voters in a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump, and Kennedy. The poll revealed that 14% of voters supported Kennedy, while 40% supported Trump and 38% supported Biden. It remains uncertain whether the Kennedy campaign can convert this level of support into actual votes in November 2024, as there is still over a year until the general election.

Kennedy launched his campaign to challenge President Biden in the Democratic primary in April, making frequent visits to early primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina. However, his efforts failed to garner much support from Democratic primary voters. According to a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released in September, only 9% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire expressed their support for Kennedy.

Despite having no prior experience in public office, Kennedy's family background as the son of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy has attracted a small group of supporters. These supporters are drawn to Kennedy's advocacy against public health mandates and his concerns about the influence of money on government and private corporations. Notably, Kennedy is the founder of Childrens Health Defense, an organization known for spreading anti-vaccine misinformation. He has also been known to promote anti-vaccine conspiracy theories during campaign events.

Attendees from across the ideological spectrum gathered in Philadelphia for the announcement on Monday. Conservatives, liberals, and independents were all present. Walter Rodriguez, a teacher from New Jersey who identifies as an independent, expressed his intention to support Kennedy if he runs in his home state. If not, he stated that he does not plan to vote.

"Rodriguez expressed enthusiasm for the candidate's vibrant energy and resonated with the topics they discussed, such as reducing reliance on centralized control, pharmaceuticals, and politics. Thus, Rodriguez viewed the candidate's decision to declare themselves as independent as the right approach.

Karl Hagstrom, originally from Westchester County, New York, migrated to Philadelphia. While he supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020, Hagstrom intends to back Kennedy in the 2024 elections. He believes that Kennedy, as a political outsider, possesses the potential to foster unity in the nation, unlike Trump, who he perceives as causing division."

Hagstrom stated that the constant chaos, tweeting, negativity, and unpredictable reactions are unsustainable and do not promote unity. Sarah Shulman, a pediatrician from Boston, attended Kennedy's campaign launch event in April and was motivated to support him due to his anti-corruption stance and views on vaccines. Although she voted for Biden in 2020 and has never considered supporting a Republican, she has felt a sense of disconnection from Biden's message since he assumed office.

Shulman praised Kennedy, stating that he speaks in a way that resonates with them as a Democrat, someone who holds liberal values and is both compassionate and sensible. The story has been edited to include further reporting.