The countdown to the 2024 presidential primaries received an unexpected twist on Monday as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his primary challenge against President Joe Biden and declared his intention to run as an independent. This surprising move drew a strong response from former President Donald Trump and Republicans who are concerned about polling data indicating that Kennedy, a longtime Democrat, could siphon off some of Trump's support.
Kennedy's decision has introduced a fresh and volatile dimension to the campaign, which had thus far been dominated by the perceived inevitability of Biden and Trump as the frontrunners for their respective party nominations. It is not just the GOP that is feeling anxious; the possibility of having at least two additional independent candidates on the ballot next year has injected an unprecedented level of uncertainty for both parties.
Similar to Kennedy, Cornel West, the progressive scholar and activist who appeared ready to secure the Green Party's nomination, also announced last week that he would pursue an independent path.
Additionally, there is the ongoing possibility of a centrist, third-party campaign from No Labels, a well-financed organization currently contemplating fielding their own candidates.
With the previous presidential races coming down to a few battleground states and just a handful of votes, the entrance of candidates from outside the two-party system has created a sense of uncertainty about the upcoming general election campaign. While it is widely believed that Biden stands to lose more from the presence of independent candidates on the ballot, the departure of Kennedy from the Democratic primary has caused some pro-Trump Republicans to view him with increased caution.
Although there is no agreement on how Kennedy's campaign would impact Trump's chances, Republicans aligned with the former president have started gathering opposition research against the longstanding Democrat. Their intention is to go on the offensive and portray Kennedy as a "liberal pretending to be a conservative," as one advisor informed CNN, highlighting his past involvement as an environmental activist.
Voters got a preview of what's to come on Monday as the Republican National Committee released a statement prior to Kennedy's announcement, labeling him as "just another radical, far-left Democrat."
"Voters shouldn't be fooled by someone claiming conservative values. The truth is that RFK has a troubling history filled with radical, liberal viewpoints," stated Steven Cheung, spokesperson for the Trump campaign, in response to RFK's announcement. Cheung referenced RFK's positions on various social issues, adding, "A RFK candidacy is merely a self-indulgent endeavor for a liberal Kennedy seeking to profit from his family name."
Other individuals argue that Kennedy's influence over voters who harbor a deep disdain for the existing political establishment, as described by someone closely associated with the ex-president, might present a notable challenge for Trump, who traditionally holds sway over this demographic.
One individual went as far as acknowledging that Kennedy could genuinely jeopardize Trump's position, especially in regards to vaccinations.
Many of his loyal supporters, including a bloc of conservatives, have harshly criticized the Covid-19 vaccines as experimental and unsafe. These vaccines, which were developed and expedited under Trump's administration, were arguably one of his major accomplishments while in office and have put the former president in a delicate position during his current White House campaign. During a recent interview with Megyn Kelly, Trump defended the vaccine's creation, stating that he was not proud of it and adamantly denying any involvement in mandating its usage.
"Those who prioritize the Ukraine issue as their main concern now have more than one option. Trump's stance on vaccines also greatly appeals to these voters," explained another adviser. "These individuals are less likely to openly express support for Trump to pollsters or even answer phone surveys."
Trump initially applauded Kennedy when he announced his candidacy for the Democratic primary.
"He is an incredibly intelligent individual," the former president commented during a June interview on Fox News. "I am familiar with many members of that family, and he is undoubtedly an intelligent individual. Moreover, he has struck a chord and garnered support from numerous Democrats I personally know."
According to polls, it appears that only a few individuals supported Kennedy in his race against Biden for the Democratic nomination. Surveys conducted among Democratic voters showed that Kennedy never exceeded 20% in popularity, which likely contributed to his decision to distance himself from a party that continues to commemorate his deceased father and uncles.
Kennedy's campaign, primarily known for his skepticism towards vaccines and advocacy of Covid-19 conspiracy theories, is largely regarded by prominent Democratic strategists as, at most, an inconvenience rather than a significant danger.
In New Hampshire, even though Kennedy had expected to benefit from Biden's absence from the primary ballot due to a disagreement about changing the 2024 nominating calendar, Democratic activists had already initiated a write-in campaign to support the president. Matt Wilhelm, the Democratic leader in the New Hampshire House, stated that Granite staffers regard their first-in-the-nation primary very seriously and are not leaving anything to chance. He added that they will ensure Biden becomes the nominee, expressing frustration but not enough to disregard Biden completely.
The Democratic National Committee did not release a statement in response to Kennedy's announcement on Monday, unlike the RNC.
Some Biden operatives were concerned about West's candidacy and believed that his status as a celebrity scholar running as a Green candidate could potentially take away enough votes from Black and liberal voters in swing states to act as a spoiler.
Bidens top advisors, however, do not share that fear, despite efforts by some donors and independent groups aligned with Biden to counter West's influence.
With both Kennedy and West now running as independent candidates, Biden campaign aides express confidence that many voters still remember how third-party candidates garnered significant votes in key states, ultimately affecting the outcomes of the 2016 and 2000 elections, where Trump and George W. Bush secured their narrow victories.
The Biden campaign declined to provide a comment. A source close to the president's reelection effort expressed the view that this upcoming election will be tightly contested, determined by a limited number of voters residing in a select few states.
However, the source emphasized that the president's team is confident in securing victory through various avenues. They are dedicated to mobilizing their supporters, persuading undecided voters, and forming a formidable alliance that will ensure President Biden's return to the White House.
Wests decision to break away from the Green Party, which would have provided him with greater ballot access and campaign infrastructure, is likely to ease the concerns of Democrats worried about his appeal. Last week, Ralph Nader, the renowned activist and former Green presidential nominee, surprisingly expressed his support for Biden, providing a boost to both his supporters and party officials.
"The GOP is the architect of fascism, and the Democrats are practitioners of autocracy," Nader stated in an interview with The Washington Post. "However, unlike autocracy, they do not suppress votes or free speech."
Given the choice, Nader said, "Ill take autocracy any time."
Hardly a ringing endorsement of the president and Democratic Party, but his words did not pass unnoticed by Wests campaign.
West's campaign manager, Peter Daou, informed CNN that although Nader did not personally reach out to urge West to withdraw from the Greens, West holds Nader in high esteem. Additionally, Daou denied allegations that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a long-time political and ideological comrade of West, had made any effort to influence West's decision.
Despite being endorsed by Sanders in April, there has been no response from him regarding West's recent move. However, several former senior aides of Sanders have informed CNN that they had disagreed with West's Green Party candidacy and were uncertain about his objectives.
Addressing his friends' run earlier this year, Sanders provided little encouragement, simply stating, "People will do as they please."
The primary worry for Democrats is the possibility of a No Labels ticket that could attract support from centrist and center-right voters who may not be enthusiastic about Biden but are unwilling to vote for Trump.
Third Way, the organization at the forefront of opposing No Labels for Democrats, has had limited informal and indirect communication with the Biden campaign and the president's top advisers. As of now, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has been involved by participating in a few video calls organized by Third Way, which included state Democratic Party officials, as mentioned by Matt Bennett from Third Way.
The leader of No Labels emphasizes that they have no intention of causing disruption and have not yet made a decision regarding fielding a candidate, despite their efforts to gain ballot access nationwide.
"I have never participated in any race that I have failed to succeed in. I have always strived to win," stated West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat who is rumored to be contemplating a presidential campaign, during a No Labels forum in July. "Furthermore, if I do enter a race, I guarantee that I will emerge victorious." Similarly, Nancy Jacobson, the CEO of No Labels, has consistently emphasized in interviews that she has no intention of favoring either of the major political parties and that the organization will ultimately decide its future actions based on polling, data analysis, and the outcomes of the Republican primary.