Opinion: Identifying Trump's True Weakness
Unveiling the true weakness of Trump: Historian Julian Zelizer suggests that focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire as pivotal states in the Republican presidential race this year may prove to be misleading
With the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary just around the corner, these events have gained a reputation for being game changers in the presidential nomination process, although not always deserved.
Since the 1976 nomination process, the nation has looked to the Hawkeye State to see if history will be made, as former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter's strong showing in Iowa propelled him to victory in New Hampshire, turning him from "Jimmy Who?" into the frontrunner.
The U.S. Supreme Court building is seen in Washington, U.S., August 31, 2023.
Kevin Wurm/Reuters
The reality is that the outcome in Iowa does not guarantee success. The Des Moines Register reported that since the caucuses began in 1972, there have been a total of 18 winners between the two parties, with 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans. While over half of the winners secured their party's nomination, only three went on to become president. George W. Bush was the last Republican nominee to win Iowa.
Do you remember Presidents Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan? Probably not, because despite winning the New Hampshire primary, they were not chosen as their party's nominee for the White House.
In 2024, caucuses and primaries may take a back seat to the drama unfolding in courtrooms due to the four prosecutions of former President Donald Trump, who is the GOP frontrunner.
The potential for a turnaround in fortunes may hinge on legal findings and rulings regarding the fate of the ex-president, who currently stands as the frontrunner among Republican contenders.
Naomi Biden, the 28-year-old granddaughter of US President Joe Biden, is set to marry Peter Neal, 25, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC on November 19, 2022. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP)
Are you in a better position now than you were three years ago? Essentially, it all comes down to the challenges. Despite Trump's ability to turn his biggest weakness into a strength, particularly in relation to January 6 and its aftermath, the situation could still change.
There is evidence indicating that a conviction could potentially impact the perspectives of Republican and independent voters in a significant manner. Despite the fact that the indictments and trials have not had much of a negative impact on Trump's political standing and have even enhanced his image as an anti-establishment figure, a conviction could potentially have a different effect. (Trump maintains his innocence in all of the cases brought against him.)
Numerous polls have indicated that if he is convicted of a felony, a larger portion of the electorate may view him unfavorably. For example, in the New York Times/Siena poll, Trump's advantage in four swing states turns into a deficit.
If Trump were to be declared a felon instead of an indicted former president, it would not only alter how the situation is perceived but also shift the focus to the substance of the criminal cases against Trump, rather than on the dynamics of the GOP primary race.
CNN
Title: The Misstep in Nikki Haley's Decision
Up until this point, the majority of the population has been relatively disengaged from politics. While political enthusiasts closely monitor the happenings in Washington, many Americans are more preoccupied with financial responsibilities and family obligations.
Recent years have seen heightened concerns about issues that voters perceive to have the most immediate impact on them, such as reproductive rights, the education wars, immigration, inflation, and more.
With political and judicial calendars starting to align, verdicts on Trump's potential guilt in at least one of the four cases could come at a time when voters are becoming more focused on the election. If Trump succeeds in delaying the cases until after the election, the courts would further solidify his position in the GOP race.
Sign up for our free weekly newsletter and stay updated on the latest developments.
Sign up for CNN Opinions newsletter
Join us on Twitter and Facebook
Once a jury renders a verdict or a court makes a ruling, we anticipate an escalation of the president's rhetoric, which will in turn increase the pressure on the GOP. The outcome of the criminal cases has the potential to alter the way Republican voters assess the chances of other candidates like former Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. If Republican voters are primarily focused on selecting the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Biden, a conviction of Trump could significantly advantage his Republican competitors.
As noted by conservative writer John LeBoutillier in The Messenger, if Trump were to go to trial this spring, he would need to determine whether or not to pursue a plea deal. This potential development would undoubtedly have a significant impact on the political landscape. Currently, Trump holds a substantial lead in the race for the Republican nomination. The accuracy of the polls regarding his lead will soon become apparent. However, if his lead proves to be true, the potential for a game-changing shift may not be found at the ballot box, but rather in a courtroom.
