Putin's Path to Continuity: Navigating Succession Challenges

It is widely anticipated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will win re-election in the upcoming nationwide vote starting on March 15, securing his fifth term in office and marking his third decade as Russia's top leader.

The recent passing of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny indicates that Putin's political career has entered a stage where he could potentially remain president for life. However, the lack of visible planning for a post-Putin era by the president and his inner circle raises concerns about Russia's future political stability.

It may not appear urgent for the man who is now Russia’s longest-serving leader since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. In 2020, Russian voters approved constitutional changes that would allow Putin to remain in power until 2036. Even before Putin announced his candidacy, the Kremlin made it clear that they do not see any alternatives to his one-man rule system in the foreseeable future.

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, there is no real competition for the president at the current stage if we assume that the president will run as a candidate. Peskov emphasized that Putin has the absolute support of the population.

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Putin, who is 71 years old, is actually ten years younger than US President Joe Biden. Despite surpassing the average life expectancy of a Russian male, his recent public appearances suggest that he is in good health.

While Putin may not be actively preparing a successor, some experts point out that his re-election highlights a concerning issue. The system established during his two-decade rule is seen as fragile, dominated by older leaders, and at risk of a major disruption, particularly if the top leader falls ill or passes away.

Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, warns that potential challenges could arise sooner than expected. He suggests that although Putin could potentially extend his rule for another 12 years, this scenario is unlikely, especially if Ukraine achieves significant successes that could impact Moscow.

Umland pointed out that last year's armed insurrection by Wagner mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin, which was successfully quashed, posed the biggest-ever challenge to Putin's rule. Additionally, unfounded rumors about Putin's health circulating on anonymous Telegram channels and social media raise concerns about succession lurking behind the Kremlin's opaque façade.

According to Umland, the significance lies not in the content of the rumors, but in the fact that they are able to spread so easily.

As Kremlin chairman, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would become the country's leader temporarily if Putin were to die or be incarcerated while in office.

As Kremlin chairman, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would become the country's leader temporarily if Putin were to die or be incarcerated while in office.

Russia is a country that operates under a constitutional system. This system ensures that there is a clear plan for succession in case something happens to the current leader, Putin. If Putin were to pass away or become unable to fulfill his duties, the Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, would temporarily take over his powers.

Analysts suggest that Putin operates a system similar to a court, where he serves as the final decision-maker in disputes among different elite groups. Unlike the Soviet Politburo, which had a consensus-driven approach to power transfer, Putin's inner circle is made up of wealthy allies, state security representatives, and loyal technocrats, functioning as a modern version of the Politburo that could handle a potential succession.

In addition to using constitutional loopholes to extend his time in office, Putin has also set a precedent for passing power to a chosen successor. In 2008, after completing his second presidential term, Putin stepped down and allowed his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, to take over.

Medvedev inherited the nuclear suitcase and the Russian Air Force One seat from Putin, but Putin continued to hold the real power and was elected for a third term in 2012. Later, Medvedev signed a law extending presidential terms to six years, and Putin further extended his rule with the 2020 constitutional referendum.

Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of the United Russia party and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, was sworn in as Russian president in 2008 after being endorsed by Putin.

Dmitry Medvedev became the Russian president in 2008 after receiving Putin's endorsement. He also serves as the chairman of the United Russia party and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.

It is not surprising that Putin's desire to remain in power has been mocked by Russia's opposition. When Putin announced his intention to run for a third term, a meme depicting the Russian president transforming into the aging Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev went viral, appearing in opposition demonstrations.

The Kremlin has likely observed how other autocratic leaders in neighboring countries maintain their authority. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko managed to suppress mass protests in 2020 despite accusations of electoral fraud, and he is now preparing to seek re-election next year. China's President Xi Jinping, who refers to Putin as his "close friend," has strengthened his control over the Chinese Communist Party and eliminated presidential term limits. In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down after ruling for three decades but retained the position of Chairman of the country's Security Council and the title of Leader of the Nation.

Police in St. Petersburg blocked access to the monument honoring victims of political repression on February 17, 2024. This was done to pay tribute to the late Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who had passed away.

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As Russia approaches a potential fifth term for Vladimir Putin, the government is intensifying its crackdown on its own citizens.

The recent situation involving Nazarbayev could serve as a lesson for the Kremlin. Following violent protests in January 2022, Nazarbayev was removed from his security council position by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and his decision-making authority was reduced. This indicates that even trusted successors may only be trusted for a limited period of time.

Some Russian political observers believe that the true competition to succeed Putin may not arise until the 2030s, when Putin enters his sixth term. Andrey Pertsev, a Russian political observer, has identified certain potential competitors as "princes" who are quietly establishing their own support networks in anticipation of Putin's eventual departure.

Former president Medvedev, who lost his position as number two in 2020 during a government reorganization, still harbors ambitions. Despite being dismissed by some as a significant political figure, Medvedev has utilized the conflict in Ukraine to position himself as a vocal opponent of the West. In a recent statement, he stood before a map of a divided Ukraine and declared, "Ukraine unquestionably belongs to Russia."

The invasion of Ukraine has led to a change in the official tone in elite Russian circles, showcasing a more aggressive stance. This shift has transformed Russia into a postmodern autocracy where Putin's high approval ratings and upcoming re-election are used to justify the war, despite concerns about the legitimacy and democratic process. Whether Medvedev will have another shot at Russia's top job remains uncertain.

Editor's P/S:

The article provides an in-depth analysis of Vladimir Putin's political career, highlighting the likelihood of his re-election and the implications for Russia's future. While Putin's dominance and the absence of a clear succession plan raise concerns about political stability, the article also acknowledges that he has established a system that could potentially handle a transition. However, the increasing fragility of the system, as evidenced by recent challenges and the spread of unfounded rumors, suggests that the issue of succession may need to be addressed sooner than expected.

The article underscores the importance of constitutional succession plans, which ensure a smooth transfer of power in the event of the leader's incapacitation. In the case of Russia, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would temporarily take over if Putin were to pass away or become unable to fulfill his duties. While Putin's use of constitutional loopholes to extend his time in office has been criticized, it is worth noting that other autocratic leaders in neighboring countries have employed similar tactics to maintain their authority. The question remains whether Putin's successor will be able to maintain the same level of control and stability, or if Russia's political landscape is destined for change in the years to come.