Public Opinion on Trump's Treatment Compared to Other Defendants Revealed in Recent CNN Poll

A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS reveals that as the first criminal prosecution of a former American president unfolds, only 13% nationwide believe that Donald Trump is being treated like any other criminal defendant. The majority of the country appears to be divided, with 34% feeling he is being treated more harshly and another 34% believing he is being treated more leniently.

The poll, which started shortly after the trial’s jury selection began on April 15, shows that only 44% of Americans have confidence in the chosen jury’s ability to deliver a fair verdict. On the other hand, 56% are doubtful that a fair outcome will be reached. A larger percentage of respondents, 42%, view Trump’s behavior during the trial as inappropriate, while 25% find it appropriate. About a third of those surveyed have not heard enough to form an opinion.

More Americans are now saying that the charges in the ongoing trial, which involve allegedly falsifying business records to hide payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election, do not affect President Trump's ability to serve as president. This percentage has increased from 39% last summer to 45% currently.

In the upcoming 2024 election, about three-quarters of voters supporting Trump over President Biden say they will continue to support him even if he is convicted of a crime. However, 24% of Trump's supporters admit that a conviction might make them reconsider their loyalty. This group represents about 12% of all registered voters, which could impact a close race if Trump faces conviction in any of the four trials he is involved in.

The impact of a potential conviction on Trump's political support is uncertain, but examining the characteristics of those supporters who are open to reconsidering can provide some insights. These supporters are typically younger (64% under 50 years old), more diverse (49% people of color), more likely to have voted for Biden in 2020 (20%), and acknowledge Biden's legitimate victory in the previous election (63%). They are also more likely to be independents (49%) and politically moderate (50%).

In essence, these supporters belong to groups that usually lean towards the Democratic party, where Biden has struggled in early polls against Trump. However, even if Trump were to be convicted, it doesn't guarantee that these supporters would switch their allegiance to Biden. In a separate question, 81% of these supporters who are open to reconsidering their choice if Trump is convicted stated that they would not vote for Biden under any circumstances.

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A majority of Americans believe that the charges in the four cases against Trump raise doubts about his ability to be president if proven true. Specifically, many people think that charges regarding Trump's involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and attempts to overturn the 2020 election should disqualify him from being president. In fact, over 40% think these charges should completely disqualify him.

There seems to be a shift in opinions about how relevant these cases are to Trump's suitability for office. More people now believe that the hush money charges are not important in assessing his fitness for the presidency. Additionally, there has been a slight increase in the number of people who think that charges related to election interference and the discovery of classified documents at Trump's residence should not impact his ability to be president if they are proven true. In the latest survey, 37% of respondents feel that these charges are irrelevant, up from 33% last summer.

Most of the shift in opinion across these three cases is seen among independents who lean towards the Republican Party and those who do not lean towards either party. Partisans have already made up their minds about how important each case is to Trump's suitability for the presidency, while independents leaning towards the Democratic Party have only slightly changed their views. In terms of the hush money charges, around three-quarters of Republicans believe they are irrelevant now, similar to last summer. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the percentage saying these charges are not relevant has remained steady at around 13%. However, among independents leaning towards the Republican Party, the number of people who consider these charges irrelevant to Trump's suitability has increased from 57% to 73%. The percentage of true independents saying the same has also risen from 29% to 45%.

Regarding the current trial, most Americans believe that Trump has acted unethically at the very least, but fewer are convinced that his actions were criminal. About one-third of Americans think that Trump's actions related to his business records and the hush money payments were illegal (33%), while another 33% consider it unethical but not illegal. Only 12% of the overall population think that he did nothing wrong in this case. Approximately 21% say they are unsure about the situation.

Those opinions mirror the sentiments of Americans following the announcement of charges last spring. At that time, 37% believed that Trump's involvement in payments to Stormy Daniels was illegal, 33% considered it unethical, and 10% believed he did nothing wrong at all.

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A look at partisan divides on Trump’s trial

Opinions on the trial and its potential outcome are split based on political party affiliation. Independents, however, seem to be less interested in the trial itself.

A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents believe that Trump is receiving more lenient treatment compared to other defendants in the criminal justice system (61%). On the other hand, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents feel that he is being treated more harshly than others (67%). Independent voters who do not align with either party are more inclined to think that Trump is being treated leniently (27%) rather than harshly (15%).

Lack of confidence in the selected jury to reach a fair verdict is highest among Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans, with 37% expressing no confidence at all. However, even among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, 40% admit to having little or no confidence in the jury's ability to reach a fair verdict.

On the other hand, a significant majority of Democratic-aligned Americans believe that Trump's behavior during the trial has been inappropriate, with 72% expressing this view. Surprisingly, Republicans have not fully defended him either. Only 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe that Trump's conduct has been appropriate, while 15% think it has been inappropriate and 39% claim they have not heard enough to form an opinion.

About half of all Americans (49%) are closely following news about the trial, with Democrats showing the most interest at 58%, followed by Republicans at 46%, and independents at 35%.

The CNN poll, conducted by SSRS from April 18-23, surveyed 1,212 adults from a random national sample. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.

Editor's P/S:

The CNN poll reveals a divided nation regarding the treatment of Donald Trump in his ongoing criminal prosecution. While a mere 13% perceive him as receiving equal treatment, the majority is split between those who believe he is being treated more harshly (34%) and those who think he is being treated more leniently (34%). This division highlights the deep political polarization in the country, with partisanship influencing perceptions of the justice system.

The poll also indicates that public opinion is shifting on the relevance of the charges against Trump to his ability to serve as president. More Americans now believe that the hush money charges are not significant, while a slight increase has occurred in those who think the same about charges related to election interference and classified documents. This shift in opinion is particularly notable among independents, suggesting that Trump's legal troubles may not have the same impact on his political viability as previously assumed.