Ohio's Republican Primary: Impact on Senate Control and Trump's Influence

Ohio's Republican Senate primary on Tuesday is the first test this year of Donald Trump's influence in a competitive Senate race. The outcome will play a significant role in shaping the fate of Sen. Sherrod Brown and the Democratic majority in the upcoming fall elections.

State Sen. Matt Dolan, one of the three Republican contenders in the heated primary, rallied his supporters in Columbus on Monday night with a question: "Are we prepared to win and end Sherrod Brown's career in Ohio politics?"

Yet despite the GOP's efforts to defeat Brown in November, the talk was more about Trump and a rally near Dayton that occurred right before the election. Trump's warnings about potential harm to the auto industry overshadowed the main purpose of his rally in Ohio: to support his favored candidate, businessman Bernie Moreno.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on March 16, 2024.

Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP/Getty Images

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Trump visits Ohio ahead of competitive Senate primary with huge stakes for November

Trump’s involvement in this race is significant because national Republicans have chosen to avoid interfering in primaries this year. Despite already securing the GOP presidential nomination, Trump has a lot at stake in Ohio on Tuesday.

Heading into Election Day, an ad from the Moreno campaign highlighted the former president’s strong presence in their messaging. The ad states, “MAGA alert: President Trump wants you to vote for outsider businessman Bernie Moreno. Trump endorsed Bernie Moreno for Senate.”

Democrats are leveraging the former president's popularity in this red state to their advantage. An outside group linked to Senate Democrats' main super PAC recently entered the pricey primary race by airing ads that showcase Moreno's endorsement from Trump, aiming to boost him over Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The ad sends a clear message: "Donald Trump needs Bernie Moreno. Ohio doesn't."

To secure reelection, Brown must appeal to a significant portion of Trump's supporters in a state where the former president won twice by 8 points. As one of only two Democrats seeking reelection this year in states Trump carried, Brown faces a tough battle alongside Montana Sen. Jon Tester. With Republicans only needing to flip one or two seats to gain Senate control, the absence of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin from the reelection race means the pressure is on for Brown to retain his seat in a state that has shown a recent shift towards the red.

On the night before the GOP primary, the senator grouped his Republican opponents together and mentioned that he didn't have a preference for who he would prefer to compete against. He stated to reporters in Dayton, "I'll leave it to the wealthy individuals to battle it out. They're using up their family fortune in this competition. One thing is for sure - they are all quite similar."

Moreno and Dolan have shown their commitment by investing their personal wealth in their campaigns, making the 2024 Ohio Senate race one of the most expensive contests. With ad spending exceeding $40 million, this race ranks behind only the US presidential race, the 2023 Kentucky governor's race, and the 2024 California Senate race in terms of total spending as of Monday.

The Ohio GOP is facing a costly and contentious race that has caused division within the party.

Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman’s recent endorsement of Dolan has brought attention to the divide within the GOP between Trump supporters and establishment figures. Dolan is the only candidate who has not explicitly endorsed Trump, emphasizing the different styles each candidate brings to the race.

During a gathering at a busy sports bar in Columbus's German Village, Dolan linked Brown to President Biden. He indicated that his strategy for the future would involve critiquing the administration's handling of issues like inflation and immigration. While briefly mentioning Trump, Dolan assured his supporters that he could appeal to suburban voters better than the former president.

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Ohio Governor Mike DeWine described the Senate Republican primary as a very close race during a recent statement.

State Senator Dolan emphasized the importance of civility in politics, highlighting that it should not be seen as a weakness. He also mentioned that true strength should be measured by the accomplishments made for the American people, rather than by being loud.

DeWine urged Republicans to think carefully about their decision in the fiercely contested race. He emphasized the importance of foreign policy as a key issue in the upcoming campaign and highlighted the stark differences between himself and Trump regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"We need to secure a victory in November," DeWine emphasized. "It is evident that Matt Dolan has the strongest chance of succeeding in the fall – our common sense points us in that direction."

The governor's support could have both positive and negative effects on Dolan, according to Ohio Republican strategists. It may increase voter turnout among older and more educated Republicans who are likely to support Dolan. However, it could also alienate voters like Eric Lange.

Eric Lange, a 40-year-old factory worker from Piqua, expressed his disapproval of DeWine and his endorsement of Dolan. Lange stated that DeWine's endorsement actually made him less inclined to support Dolan even further. He shared his thoughts outside of Trump's Saturday rally.

Trump criticized Dolan during his speech, emphasizing the division within the party by linking him to GOP Sen. Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, and calling him a RINO, or “Republican in Name Only,” for his family's decision to change the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians.

Despite Moreno’s past criticism of Trump - he once referred to him as a “fake Republican,” according to CNN’s KFile - some Trump supporters told CNN before his rally that they intended to support Moreno because of the former president’s endorsement.

Anna Saylor, a 64-year-old from Hamilton, expressed her support for a candidate based on Trump's endorsement.

LaRose, despite not having the personal wealth of his opponents, believes that his experience as the only statewide elected official in the race makes him the best choice to defeat Brown. He does not think that the endorsements of Trump or DeWine will have a significant impact on the outcome.

"Endorsements are not the main factor that influences most people's decisions," he mentioned to reporters after a campaign event in Sandusky last weekend. "It seems like one of my opponents, Moreno, is relying heavily on endorsements to divert attention from his liberal record that he doesn't want to address."

Now, gearing up for the upcoming fall campaign.

Lange, a factory worker from Piqua, shared his worries about Moreno's chances against Brown. His concerns were influenced by the Democrats' victory in passing Issue 1 last year, which protected abortion rights in the state constitution.

On Monday, Brown chose not to comment on whether he thought Moreno would be the most manageable opponent in the upcoming election. This decision came despite suggestions from Democratic strategists in Ohio. Brown acknowledged that his campaign for a fourth term poses the toughest challenge yet in his almost fifty years of public service.

"Sure," Brown mentioned, "it might just be my most challenging race yet."

Ohio supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then shifted to backing Trump by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Brown, recognized for his progressive populist views, is the only Democrat currently holding a nonjudicial statewide office in Ohio. He secured victory in his last election in 2018 with a 7-point lead against a weak opponent who lacked support from the national party.

Brown, as a Democratic candidate seeking reelection in a state that is becoming more Republican, outlined the key issues he plans to focus on. He pointed out that his GOP opponents are in favor of a national abortion ban, have not backed organized labor, and oppose increasing the minimum wage. Brown stated confidently, "We will be prepared for whomever our opponent may be."

CNN’s David Wright contributed to this report.

Editor's P/S:

The Ohio Republican Senate primary is a significant test of Donald Trump's influence in a competitive Senate race. Trump's involvement is noteworthy because national Republicans have opted to avoid interfering in primaries this year. The outcome of the primary will have a substantial impact on the fate of Sen. Sherrod Brown and the Democratic majority in the upcoming fall elections.

The race has been characterized by costly and contentious campaigning, with candidates Moreno and Dolan investing heavily in their campaigns. The endorsements of Trump and Governor Mike DeWine have further divided the GOP, highlighting the rift between Trump supporters and establishment figures. The Democrats are leveraging Trump's popularity in an attempt to boost Moreno, aiming to weaken Dolan's chances of victory. The primary results will provide insights into the effectiveness of Trump's endorsements and the broader political landscape in Ohio, a state that has recently shifted towards the GOP.