Netanyahu's Dilemma: Balancing Government Stability and Ceasefire Negotiations with Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a crucial decision: Navigate between preserving his government's stability and engaging in ceasefire talks with Hamas.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a tough decision. He may have to decide between accepting a ceasefire agreement with Hamas or maintaining his government's control.
Netanyahu is facing a tough decision, but he is also trying to find a way to avoid making it altogether.
For months, Netanyahu has been carefully managing these conflicting priorities by refusing to consider a permanent ceasefire. He has been blaming Hamas for the breakdown of previous negotiations due to their unreasonable demands. However, after US President Joe Biden revealed Israel's new ceasefire proposal on Friday, which Hamas might be willing to agree to, Netanyahu is running out of time.
Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu, believes that Bibi is now in a difficult position. According to Bushinsky, Biden is pressuring Netanyahu to reveal his true intentions and decide whether he supports a deal or not.
As Israel waits for Hamas' reply to the recent proposal, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and other far-right members of Netanyahu's coalition are warning that they may leave the government and lead to its collapse if Netanyahu proceeds with the plan.
President Joe Biden spoke about the verdict in former President Donald Trump's hush money trial and the situation in the Middle East from the State Dining Room of the White House on Friday, May 31 in Washington, DC.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the verdict in former President Donald Trump's hush money trial and on the Middle East, from the State Dining Room of the White House, on Friday, May 31, in Washington, DC.
Evan Vucci/AP
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Biden is calling for an end to the war with his Israeli ceasefire proposal. Despite pressure from the right, Netanyahu is pushing back on Biden's terms. Biden sees the proposal as a way to stop the war, but Netanyahu insists on continuing until Hamas is defeated.
Ben Gvir has been trying to persuade the far-right ministers to avoid a situation where they have to choose between a ceasefire deal and the survival of the government. However, his efforts have not been successful so far. On Monday, Ben Gvir mentioned that Netanyahu’s office did not keep their promise to share the draft proposal with him, making him believe that the prime minister is hiding something.
If Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich continue with their threats to leave the government, Netanyahu will be faced with the decision that is slowly becoming a reality for him.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid has proposed a “safety net” to help the government stay in control and reach a ceasefire agreement. However, if this happens, Lapid could use this opportunity to push for early elections once the deal is finalized.
Netanyahu's ability to stay in power might still depend on the ongoing conflict and his ongoing efforts to achieve a complete victory over Hamas, just like it has for the past eight months.
Netanyahu is faced with a tough decision between saving his government or agreeing to a hostage deal. This dilemma comes at a time when his political standing is on the rise. Recently, a Channel 12 survey showed that Netanyahu is now preferred as prime minister by 36% of Israelis, slightly ahead of his main rival Benny Gantz who received 30% of the votes.
Protesters hold flags and signs during a demonstration calling for a hostages deal with Hamas and against Netanyahu and his government, in Tel Aviv, Israel on May 11.
Protesters hold flags and signs during a demonstration calling for a hostages deal with Hamas and against Netanyahu and his government, in Tel Aviv, Israel on May 11.
Amir Levy/Getty Images
Recent polls show Gantz’s National Unity party losing ground, while Netanyahu’s Likud is gaining momentum. Despite this, National Unity still leads in Knesset seats, but their lead over Likud has decreased from 19 seats to just four.
Netanyahu’s rise in popularity coincides with international criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the International Criminal Court’s move to seek his arrest. This has cast Netanyahu as Israel’s defender, a role he is familiar with as the country’s longest-serving prime minister. On the other hand, Gantz’s threat to leave the war cabinet due to Netanyahu’s lack of long-term strategy in Gaza has led to a decline in his support.
A poll by Israel’s Channel 11 on Monday put the Israeli public’s support for the ceasefire deal currently on the table at 40%, with 27% opposed and 33% unsure.
Palestinians, who were displaced by Israel's military offensive on south Gaza, make their way as they attempt to return to their homes in north Gaza through an Israeli checkpoint, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from central Gaza Strip April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Palestinians from south Gaza, displaced by Israel's military offensive, are trying to return to their homes in north Gaza. They are passing through an Israeli checkpoint amidst the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. This scene was captured from central Gaza Strip on April 15, 2024 by Ramadan Abed of Reuters.
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Netanyahu is currently considering whether it is better to keep fighting or agree to a ceasefire. Biden's recent speech not only made Netanyahu face this decision but also aimed to help him resist the pressure to reject his government's proposal.
Biden acknowledged that there are people in Israel, including some in the government coalition, who may oppose the proposed plan and want the war to continue indefinitely. Despite this, Biden urged the Israeli leadership to support the deal and stand firm against any pressure.
But the main question is still unanswered: Will Hamas push Netanyahu to make a decision? Or will Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, provide Netanyahu with a way out?
Hamas has mentioned that it sees Biden's speech regarding the recent Israeli proposal in a positive light, but has not given its official response yet.
The latest proposal has made significant concessions to address Hamas's demands, such as providing a clear path to a permanent ceasefire. However, it still does not fully meet all of the demands.
The proposal allows for an initial 6-week ceasefire period, which can be extended for negotiations towards a permanent truce. This includes the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in a second phase of the deal. However, it does not mandate Israel to commit to a permanent ceasefire from the beginning.
Hamas’s refusal to compromise on that point and sign off on this deal could let Netanyahu off the hook, and plunge Gaza into many more months of war.
