Mike Johnson: A Prominent Figure in Today's GOP Mainstream

The Republican Party's prolonged ordeal finally concluded last week with the appointment of Louisiana's Mike Johnson as the 56th speaker of the House. If you're among those who consider themselves politically savvy, you likely feigned familiarity with him before resorting to a quick Google search.

This has sparked a discussion regarding Johnson's ideological stance. To what extent does he align with conservative principles? An examination of the data indicates that Johnson is undoubtedly positioned significantly to the right of the average American voter. Nonetheless, within the Republican Party, he falls relatively close to its center, taking into account the party's rightward shift in recent times.

Consider what is commonly known about Johnson: He staunchly supports former President Donald Trump and played a significant role in the endeavors to invalidate the 2020 election outcome.

It is widely accepted that Joe Biden emerged as the rightful victor of said election, with no substantial evidence suggesting otherwise. The majority of general election voters acknowledge Biden's legitimate win. According to a recent poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, a mere 29% of registered voters believe otherwise.

Among Republicans, 60% deemed Biden's win illegitimate, as stated in the aforementioned poll, while only 23% held a different view. In a recent CNN/SSRS survey, a significant majority of Republicans (70%) expressed that the criminal charges against Trump pertaining to his unsuccessful efforts to overturn the 2020 election do not impact his eligibility for another term. Even among the wider electorate, only 49% believed it should be grounds for disqualification.

On October 24, in Washington, DC, Rep. Mike Johnson addressed reporters prior to a House Republican candidates forum held at the Longworth House Office Building on Capitol Hill. During the forum, congressmen running for Speaker of the House had the opportunity to present their platforms.

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New speaker of the House Mike Johnson once wrote in support of the criminalization of gay sex

A clear majority of House Republicans, including Johnson, voted against certifying the 2020 election results from at least one state. These votes were not in line with the majority of House members, but were supported within the House Republican Conference.

Johnson also led an amicus brief in support of overturning the 2020 election results in four Biden-won states, which most House members did not sign. However, a majority of House Republican members (126) did.

Regardless of personal preferences, it is important to acknowledge that within the current Republican party, the belief that Biden fairly won the 2020 election is held by a minority.

Moreover, Johnson has received backlash for his stance on abortion. He actively supported a bill that aimed to ban abortions after the detection of a fetal heartbeat, commonly occurring at around six weeks.

According to a May Gallup poll, 59% of Americans opposed such legislation, while 37% were in favor. This aligns with the pro-abortion rights side consistently prevailing in every abortion-related ballot measure since the overturning of Roe v. Wade last year, even in several conservative states.

However, examining the same poll's findings among Republicans, a majority (61%) expressed support for banning abortion after six weeks. This places Johnson squarely within the mainstream of his party.

Legally, the majority of Southern states have implemented prohibitions on abortion at or before six weeks.

I could extensively discuss Johnson's stance on various contentious matters, and it is quite evident that although he may not align with the average voter in a general election, he does resonate with the typical Republican voter.

This can be best observed by examining the aggregate statistics compiled by the academics at Voteview. Since his entrance into the House in 2017, Johnson has established a voting record that is more conservative than 81% of all current members. Nevertheless, he is only more conservative than 63% of his fellow GOP colleagues. To put it differently, 37% of House Republicans are more conservative than the newly-appointed speaker. As a result, Johnson falls within the middle third of the current House Republican Conference.

Furthermore, Johnson has aligned with the Republican majority in 94% of the votes conducted in this Congress. This is almost on par with the median House Republican member, who has aligned with the majority 93% of the time.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a former Speaker of the House, engaged in discussions with reporters during a caucus meeting held by Republicans in Washington, D.C.'s Capitol on Friday, October 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Mariam Zuhaib/AP

House speaker crisis is a symptom of historic Republican divisions

To provide context, consider the case of unsuccessful aspirant Jim Jordan as a speaker. Across the House of Representatives, the voting record of this congressman from Ohio is deemed to be more conservative than that of 91% of his fellow Republicans. Unlike Johnson, it is clear that Jordan stands apart, not only from the average of Congress as a whole but also within the House Republican Conference.

This should not be taken to imply that Johnson is not more conservative than past Republicans. It is simply the case that the Republican party as a whole has shifted towards a more conservative stance.

Kentucky Rep. Hal Rogers, who has been the longest-serving House Republican incumbent since his election in 1980, demonstrated a higher level of conservatism than 59% of GOP members during his initial term. Presently, he is considered more moderate than over 80% of House Republicans.

Additionally, Republican members of Congress continue to reflect the views of their constituents. In a 1982 CBS News poll, less than 50% of adults who identified as Republicans described themselves as conservative. However, Gallup's recent findings indicate that over 70% of Republicans now consider themselves conservative.

Moreover, polling data indicates a significant shift towards liberalism among Democrats during this time period. Consequently, independents, who have maintained a moderate political stance similar to that of four decades ago, may perceive that neither party truly represents their interests.

However, it is worth noting that the House of Representatives does not include any independent members. Rather, it comprises Democrats and Republicans. It is within this political realm that figures like Johnson have managed to attain the position of House Speaker. Johnson serves as a prime example of the current state of the GOP.