Government Shutdown Threatens as New Speaker Grapples with Hardline Members

New House Speaker Mike Johnson might be facing his first major conflict with hard-right lawmakers, who are causing chaos for the Republican majority and the entire nation as the deadline for another federal funding cut-off approaches. This Louisiana conservative, who recently rose from obscurity to become second in line to the presidency, could soon find himself in the same predicament as his predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, needing Democratic votes to prevent a government shutdown.

A funding deadline of Friday night once again puts Washington on the brink of a shutdown, thanks to extreme GOP lawmakers who either lack the ability or refuse to contribute to the governance of the country. This impasse not only damages America's reputation as a viable democracy internationally but has also squandered every week of the House majority party's term since summer. Moreover, it endangers the crucial swing-district members who are vital to the GOP's goal of retaining control in the upcoming election.

U.S. Capitol Police are stationed on the East Front at sunrise on October 25, 2023 in Washington, DC. In a recent development, Rep. Michael Johnson (R-LA) has been chosen by House Republicans to be their new Speaker of the House, replacing former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). McCarthy was removed from his position on October 4, following a move led by a faction of conservative members within his party. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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On Saturday, Johnson introduced a comprehensive plan that includes two separate phases aimed at providing temporary funding for the government. The plan sets deadlines in January and February for the approval of permanent department budgets.

The move aims to prevent the annual tradition of shutdown dramas and massive spending bills in Washington during the holiday season. However, it seems highly unlikely that a GOP majority, which struggles to pass any bill, will be able to successfully implement this complex plan. Given their track record, Johnson's actions may lead to two government shutdowns instead of one.

Although the two-step approach seems like a compromise to appease the far right, who strongly oppose temporary resolutions that maintain current spending levels, Johnson's strategy may have already backfired. This is because it does not include the significant budget cuts that hard-right Republicans demanded, even though such cuts have no chance of being approved by a Democratic-controlled Senate and White House. "It's a completely blank resolution, and I am completely against it," wrote Chip Roy, a member of the Freedom Caucus and a Representative from Texas, highlighting the potential showdown that led to McCarthy losing his position.

Johnsons faces a challenging task due to the narrow GOP majority, as he can only afford to lose a few members when voting on any bill. This necessitates seeking assistance from Democrats on certain matters, which consequently raises the risk of further alienating far-right members within his conference.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opens the House floor on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on November 1, 2023. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Johnsons inheritance is nightmarish for a new speaker

With this tangle of political complexities, Johnson is entering a crucial week for his leadership. He is uncertain about its outcome and he confronts the prospect that his fledgling power could soon be completely undermined.

Given the urgent time constraints of passing a funding measure through both the House and Senate within a five-day period, Johnson's lack of experience and abilities in managing his party's divided majority and employing legislative tactics to sway votes is a significant disadvantage. Additionally, the political landscape remains unchanged with a divided political system, resistance from the GOP's right-leaning faction, divisions among Republicans in the House and Senate, and Democratic control in the other chamber as well as the White House. These persistent challenges mirror the ones that led to McCarthy's downfall last month, leaving Johnson with the same daunting and potentially unsolvable set of conflicting forces.

The political and geopolitical ramifications of this situation are continuously escalating. The failure of the Houses to effectively govern has left Israel without an aid package while it combats Hamas in Gaza. (Johnson did manage to pass $14.3 billion in aid for Israel; however, he appeased hardline conservatives by offsetting the funding with cuts to the Internal Revenue Service, rendering it a futile gesture that the Senate refuses to accept.) The likelihood of Ukraine receiving another substantial aid package from the United States is diminishing due to the Houses' inability to take action and the growing opposition among far-right conservatives towards providing this lifeline.

Consequently, the critical question at hand this week is whether hardline Republicans will grant their new leader more flexibility compared to McCarthy, allowing him to avert his first crisis with support from Democratic votes. Johnson himself aligns with the far right, but any compromises made with Democrats will initiate a gradual erosion of hardline support and transform Johnson, in the eyes of right-wing backbenchers, into an establishment figure who is deemed guilty of desiring governance. This precarious situation may pave the way for potential attempts to remove him from power.

Still, Johnson's approach, coined as a "laddered CR" in his recent contribution to the convoluted jargon of Congress, offers a favorable aspect for Republicans. It compels House Democrats to contemplate their own political vulnerabilities. As the proposed plan by the new speaker eschews substantial spending cuts demanded by the far-right, Democrats may face political backlash if they fail to support it. This is due to the potential far-reaching consequences of a government shutdown, including the possible delay of military pay.

Trump looms over the House – and the year to come

House Democrats have not yet finalized their stance, but they did acknowledge on Saturday that Johnson's plan did not include any spending cuts. Nevertheless, the White House strongly criticized the proposal, stating that it would only result in more chaos and shutdowns caused by the Republican party.

The repetition of the word "extreme" in the statement suggests the strategic thinking of the White House. This aligns with the imagery employed by President Joe Biden and his campaign as they intensify their confrontation with former President Donald Trump, who is currently the leading Republican candidate with just two months left before the GOP primary. Faced with worrisome poll numbers, including a recent survey showing Trump surpassing him in crucial swing states, Biden is eager to draw parallels to the ex-president's extremism that contributed to his victory in the 2020 election. Over the weekend, Trump inadvertently reinforced Biden's argument by using language reminiscent of demagogic autocrats, pledging to eliminate "radical left thugs that live like vermin" if he secures a second term and targeting special counsel Jack Smith and his family.

Trump's influence on far-right Republicans could complicate matters for Johnson. Given his significant sway over this group, Trump's endorsement of a government shutdown could be seen as an effort to exploit any resulting chaos and economic damage in order to generate national dissatisfaction and bolster his calls for authoritarian leadership. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of Trump's staunchest followers, has already criticized Johnson's proposal as a "clean CR" and spent the weekend expressing frustration over the new speaker's reluctance to reignite the GOP's impeachment inquiry against Biden.

Johnson pleads for a break from his hardliners

Johnson's language, much like the White House, serves as an explanation of his strategy. During a GOP conference call on Saturday, he emphasized, "I bear no responsibility for the current mess we find ourselves in." This approach can be seen as a plea to Republicans who supported him out of exhaustion and frustration during the ongoing speaker feud, urging them to provide him with the necessary time and space as he takes on this new role. By highlighting the troubled legacy he inherited, Johnson also serves as a reminder to his supporters about the potential chaos that could ensue if they fail to back him.

Furthermore, Johnson is confronted with a complex range of situations, hindering his ability to bring his plan to a floor vote this week. Time is running out before Friday's deadline, and the Senate is expected to take a different approach by passing a clean extension bill, with little enthusiasm from senators in both parties for Johnson's proposed approach.

Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy stated on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the Senate will move forward with a clean CR, avoiding any tricks or compromises. Murphy expressed concern with the House process, which splits the budget into two separate dates, viewing it as a potential recipe for failure. However, Murphy remains open to listening to the arguments presented by Johnson and his approach.

However, considering the extreme resistance from the majority members of the GOP to approve government funding, it is quite likely that it is already too late for any further attempts to listen.

The United States government is once again teetering on the brink of a crisis.