Mike Johnson Takes a Bold Gamble in Unleashing His New Power on Israel

The new House Speaker, Mike Johnson, is quickly creating new divisions in Washington.

As a newcomer leading the Republican majority, Johnson is defining his conservative stance early on in his political career. He is embarking on a high-stakes confrontation with both Democrats and Senate Republicans regarding funding for Israel. This decision could either strengthen his influence or undermine his authority right from the beginning.

Johnson's tactics indicate that he may either be just as much under the control of hard-right conservatives as his predecessor Kevin McCarthy was or, being one of them himself, he is determined to utilize his time in office to fuel new chaos and conflicts.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

David Becker/AP

The House GOP's aim to provide $14.3 billion in aid to Israel is creating tension with the Senate. Despite Israel being an ally engaged in a crucial war, the House GOP's prioritization of pleasing conservative media over governing the country is evident in their decision to fund this aid by making significant cuts to the Internal Revenue Service. This move not only raises concerns about their political tactics but also opens up divisions within the Republican Party. Additionally, their refusal to comply with President Biden's request to link aid to Israel and Ukraine sets the stage for a clash with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. This development could potentially lead to further discord among Republicans, following weeks of internal conflicts over the speakership. On Wednesday, Johnson will have his first meeting with the entire Senate GOP Conference during their lunch session.

Johnson's decision to initiate the first battle of his tenure over the Israel package will consume valuable time just over two weeks before a potential government shutdown if new federal funding is not approved. This show of strength may be an effort to gain support among hardliners and establish himself for the larger funding fight, where he might have to make difficult concessions, similar to those that led to McCarthy's downfall. However, if he pushes McConnell and the Democratic-run Senate too far, he risks creating further hostility that will impact the upcoming funding showdown.

What makes Johnson's actions intriguing is that he was relatively unknown outside of the House GOP until he became a backup candidate for the speaker position following three weeks of damaging internal party conflicts to replace McCarthy. Johnson is also new to managing a contentious GOP conference, which previous speakers, including McCarthy, struggled to control. His ability to handle resolutions condemning the behavior of members from both political parties will serve as an early test, as some view this as a distraction as the government funding deadline approaches. His initial significant actions in this leadership role will also be crucial in setting expectations for the country's newest high-ranking political figure. If he manages to survive, he will play a crucial role in the lead-up to the 2024 election, as the GOP aims to maintain or expand its slim House majority.

Rep. Mike Johnson is applauded as Rep. Elise Stefanik nominates him for House speaker on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on Wednesday.

Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times/Redux

Mike Johnson symbolizes a new turn for the religious right

But the contentious House dispute over funding for Israel and Ukraine highlights how partisan divisions in Washington, exacerbated by anti-government extremists within the GOP, are undermining President Joe Biden's efforts to assert US leadership abroad during a time of numerous crises. China and Russia, US adversaries, are capitalizing on the internal dysfunction in Washington to challenge US power and weaken the perception of America's ability to fulfill its global obligations. Beth Sanner, a former deputy director for National Intelligence, emphasized the importance of US leadership and credibility in this situation, stating on "CNN News Central" that the Republicans' actions are hindering the president's ability to demonstrate strength and leadership due to their handling of the funding issue.

Surprisingly, Johnson chooses to test his credibility by addressing Israel funding first.

Johnson's hardball approach to Israel funding was unexpected, especially considering that one of the main drivers behind resolving the speakership impasse last week was the urgent need to pass a funding package following the recent Hamas attacks. Johnson's decision to offset the $14.3 billion cost by making cuts to IRS funding included in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will inevitably lead to further delays for the bill. While this move appeases conservative demands for significant spending cuts, it remains uncertain whether Johnson will be able to deliver on his promises given that the Democrats currently have control over both the Senate and the White House. In response, the Biden administration formally threatened to veto the House GOP's separate bill to provide aid to Israel.

The new speaker may have various motivations.

The inclusion of offsets may indicate that Johnson needs to appease his most extreme members, even to pass a measure as popular as funding for Israel. This could pose early challenges for his speakership, as it would demonstrate that he is just as limited by the small GOP majority as McCarthy was - he can only afford to lose four votes and still pass legislation along party lines.

Alternatively, Johnson might be seeking to create division among Democrats during a time when conservatives are pressuring the president from the far left. This group has voiced criticism of Israel's response to the recent terror attacks and civilian deaths in Gaza. By forcing certain Democrats to vote against funding for Israel, he could lay the groundwork for future campaign advertisements leading up to the next election. The National Republican Congressional Committee appeared to confirm this strategy in a recent post on X, stating: "Extreme House Democrats must decide between IRS audits of middle-class Americans or supporting Israel."

One Jewish Democrat, Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida, accused Republicans of politicizing aid for Israelis "in their greatest time of need." He denounced their actions as a political trap and completely outrageous, seeing it as a lack of serious policy. Despite his opposition to trimming IRS funding, he stated that he would not fall for the trap and would support the aid for Israel.

However, it is expected that Johnson will need to change his approach once an Israel funding bill goes back to the House after being passed in the Senate, as the Democratic leadership there opposes the IRS offsets. By then, Republicans may have achieved their political objectives by pressuring Democrats and satisfying some of their right-wing members. However, this process will require time, which is a luxury the House cannot afford as the government's funds are set to expire after November 17.

In addition to the government shutdown clock ticking down, Johnson faces several political controversies that highlight the turmoil in the closely divided House. One of these controversies involves a censure resolution introduced by GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia against Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian American from Michigan who has strongly criticized Israel. Another controversy involves a resolution filed by Democrats condemning Greene for promoting apparent racism, antisemitism, and anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric. Additionally, the House will address the issue of New York Rep. George Santos, who is currently facing multiple criminal charges such as wire fraud and identity theft and has pleaded not guilty. However, the chances of successfully expelling Santos, a freshman Republican, are slim due to the already narrow GOP majority, which limits Johnson's options. In the midst of all this, Johnson is preparing for a direct confrontation with McConnell.

Johnson's decision to use his newfound power to initiate a challenge with McConnell, who holds extensive experience in both the House and the Senate, demonstrates a bold move and highlights the right-wing faction of the GOP's contempt for the establishment's political leaders.

McConnell, a particular target of former President Donald Trump and the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2024, reiterated on Tuesday his demand for the linkage of funding for Israel and Ukraine. This position aligns with the bipartisan majority in the Senate, which Biden emphasizes is crucial for maintaining US credibility internationally. Even prior to the outbreak of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, the significant pipeline of weaponry and ammunition that aids Ukraine in its defense against Russian President Vladimir Putin was at risk due to mounting Republican opposition, partly fueled by Trump's reluctance to support the Kyiv government. Additionally, the aid package includes financial support for Taiwan, a key foreign policy priority of the Biden administration, as well as a request for increased funding for southern border projects, typically a priority for Republicans.

McConnell explained the reality of divided government in Washington, stating that for a law to be made, it must pass both chambers and be approved by the president.

However, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky supported Johnson's stance, arguing that it could be crucial for his position as speaker. Paul commended the speaker for separating Israel aid and suggested that it should be funded by reallocating money from other parts of the budget. Paul criticized McConnell for undermining Johnson and going against the GOP base, stating that McConnell's position is unpopular in Kentucky and the United States and could ultimately lead to the speaker's downfall, which Paul does not support. Some other conservative senators in the Senate also disagree with their leader and support separating Israel and Ukraine aid.

Johnson is scheduled to meet with the entire Senate GOP Conference during their lunch on Wednesday, marking their first encounter. A GOP aide confirmed this information.

However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer cautioned that Johnson's actions were motivated purely by political reasons, alleging that he had disregarded Israel's interests in the process.

As a result of the controversy, senior administration officials vigorously emphasized on Tuesday that the credibility of the United States was in jeopardy worldwide.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed the Senate Appropriations Committee that there are evident connections between the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine. He asserted that after the invasion of Ukraine, the United States ceased Russia's military supply lines, leading Moscow to seek military assistance from Iran, a prominent supporter of Hamas. In response, Blinken stated that Russia has provided advanced military technology to Tehran, posing a threat to Israel's security. The top US diplomat cautioned that allowing Russia to prevail with the support of Iran would only strengthen both Moscow and Iran.

During the same hearing, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned that if the US fails to continue its support for Ukraine, it would hand victory to Putin and put NATO states' safety in critical jeopardy.