The return of Ivan Toney to training has ignited speculation about his future as he prepares to rejoin football in January.
Brentford will surely aim to retain their top scorer in the Premier League, considering his exceptional finishing abilities. Nevertheless, if the club were to receive a reasonable transfer fee for him, it may not have as severe an impact as one might assume.
Since their promotion, Toney has netted an impressive 32 Premier League goals for Brentford, which is almost double the number scored by any other player. These goals make up 28% of his club's overall tally, with only Harry Kane of an ever-present club surpassing this percentage at 31%.
It is evident that Brentford heavily relies on Toney's goal-scoring abilities. Among the players who have scored more since their promotion, only four players surpass him. Furthermore, his shot conversion rate is among the top in the division since last season's start. Only Kane, Erling Haaland, and Callum Wilson have a higher conversion rate among the league's most prolific scorers.
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The absence left by those objectives would require a suitable replacement. Nevertheless, playing for Brentford offers an advantage in terms of the support provided to their forwards. Despite ranking 14th in the Premier League for shots per game since the previous season, Brentford leads in xG per shot.
The average quality of chances created by Brentford surpasses that of any other club. This implies that converting those chances into goals is easier, making it a highly favorable environment for strikers to flourish in.
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Brentford's exceptional shot location plays a crucial role in their success. On average, they take shots that are closer to the goal than any other team in the Premier League, except for one. This advantageous position contributes to their remarkable accuracy in hitting the target and their impressive conversion rate overall.
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The increased effectiveness exhibited by Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa can be attributed to their shift towards a more advanced position in the absence of Toney. Together, they have accounted for 15 out of Brentford's last 20 goals when Toney was not on the field.
Mbeumo, in particular, has significantly improved his shot conversion rate, which currently stands at 29% in the 11 games he has played without Toney since last season. This is a remarkable increase compared to his career average of 6% in the Premier League. On the other hand, Wissa has had seven significant scoring opportunities in those 11 games, a notable rise from his previous tally of nine chances in his last 63 matches. Both players have thrived in Brentford's system, benefiting greatly from the favorable conditions provided by their role in the team.
Brentford has already faced the challenge of playing without Toney. Despite losing the last two games, they have actually performed better without him. They have secured more points per game, scored more frequently, and taken more shots.
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Toney's impact on those games could have been even greater, but it highlights the effectiveness of the functioning process without him.
As a proven Premier League scorer, Toney's potential sale would command a significant fee. While Brentford would like to retain their talisman, they have managed to achieve short-term success in his absence. When the time comes for him to leave, the club possesses the creative groundwork to strengthen any replacement and sustain their achievements.