Is China's Behavior in the South China Sea a Foreshadowing of Taiwan's Future?

Situated 120 miles off the coast of Palawan in the Philippines, the Sierra Madre is a decaying World War II-era landing vessel that houses a small group of Philippine marines and provides support for the Second Thomas Shoal atoll.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that the shoal is under the sovereignty of the Philippines and that China does not have a legal basis to claim historical rights to most of the South China Sea.

Beijing has taken strong actions to demonstrate its public refusal of the court's decision, increasing construction on multiple artificial islands with military installations to reinforce its claim of authority over nearly the entire South China Sea.

China's primary mechanism in these efforts has been its massive coast guard, the world's largest force of its kind.

Chinese Coast Guard ships have aggressively confronted Philippine vessels attempting to resupply or repair the Sierra Madre in order to prevent it from breaking up in severe weather, which would weaken Manila's control over the Second Thomas Shoal. The urgency of the situation has drawn the interest of the United States, which has been strengthening ties with the Philippines under the leadership of pro-American leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr., including discussions of expanded American access to military bases in the Philippines.

China-Philippines maritime standoff escalating on path that could drag US into conflict, analysts warn

President Biden stated on October 26 that the US has an unwavering defense commitment to the Philippines. Any aggression towards Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces would result in the activation of the mutual defense treaty between Washington and Manila.

However, the actions of China pose a more profound threat.

The Philippine example demonstrates that Beijing has utilized its substantial coast guard to assert power, not just in the South China Sea but in other regions as well, disregarding international standards, establishing new realities on the ground (or at sea,) and testing the boundaries while challenging others to respond.

Furthermore, some experts predict that China may soon utilize the coast guard to intensify pressure on Taiwan, the democratic island that Beijing has pledged to assimilate through diplomacy if feasible, and coercion if needed.

The upcoming January 13 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan are particularly significant. If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which considers Taiwan a de facto sovereign nation separate from China, wins the presidential poll for the third time in a row - as it currently leads in public opinion surveys - the likelihood of a strong Chinese reaction will greatly rise.

Voters backing Lai Ching-te, the vice president of Taiwan and the presidential nominee of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), gather at a political rally in Kaohsiung, Taiwan on December 22, 2023.

Should the more China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) win on January 13, it is still unlikely that Taiwan will swiftly move towards unification with the mainland, which could lead to increased Chinese aggression.

The pressure that this would create poses an extremely difficult challenge for both Taiwan and the US Navy, especially considering the Chinese law allowing the coast guard to use lethal force in disputed waters. Former Taiwan Defense Minister Andrew Yang poses the question: "If Chinese coast guard ships, which can range up to 10,000 tons, appear around Taiwan, what would the US or Taiwan do? They are coast guard, not navy. They are not firing a shot. Do the US or Taiwan fire first?"

The coast guard also creates opportunities for the Chinese Communist Party to employ other forms of pressure that it has not yet employed, such as actions that could pose a direct threat to foreign companies operating in Taiwan.

On October 26, 2023, during a joint deployment in the South China Sea, HMCS Ottawa fired its main gun at the Hammerhead remote training target while USS Rafael Peralta and HMAS Brisbane sailed in formation. The impressive display was captured in a photo by Aviator Gregory Cole of the Canadian Armed Forces.

CNN embarked on an 11-day voyage through some of the most hotly disputed waters on the planet. Here's what we discovered.

These measures could involve enforcing the requirement for foreign ships headed to the island to undergo customs checks at Chinese ports nearby or requiring foreign airlines flying to Taiwanese airports to submit flight plans to Chinese authorities first.

The potential for Chinese ships to inspect foreign commercial vessels on the high seas to assert Taiwan claims may result in international insurers tying maritime insurance rates to meeting Chinese regulations, adding legal, political, and financial stress on foreign businesses in Taiwan, and challenging Taiwans efforts to maintain independence from China.

In addition, Beijing has been increasing air and naval operations in Taiwans self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone, with a record 103 sorties conducted in a single day in September.

Chinese military aircraft have been making more frequent incursions, including circumnavigating Taiwan and increasingly crossing an informal Taiwan Strait "median line" in order to reduce the risk of accidental clashes.

On April 23, 2023, marines stationed on the grounded Philippine navy ship BRP Sierra Madre are seen asserting Manila's territorial claims at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea. The AFP, along with other media outlets, joined two Philippine Coast Guard boats on a 1,670-kilometre (1,040-mile) patrol of the South China Sea, visiting a dozen islands and reefs. Beijing's claim of sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, disregards an international ruling that the assertion has no legal basis. This photo was taken by Ted Aljibe and is part of the AFP SPECIAL REPORT by Cecil Morella.

Are mysterious militia causing issues in the South China Sea, as claimed by Beijing? Beijing has recently confronted US ships in the strait, with one incident in June involving a Peoples Liberation Army warship coming within 150 yards of a US guided-missile destroyer. Additionally, in September, China's first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, performed operations south and north of Taiwan.

These "gray zone activities" have allowed China to gain an advantage in the South China Sea. Soon, Taiwan's allies will need to address the question of whether they can effectively support the democratic island. Peter Enav, former Associated Press Taipei bureau chief, is the editor of the Taiwan Strait Risk Report, and Mike Chinoy, former senior Asia correspondent for CNN, is a consulting editor for the report.