Iran's Leaders Shaken by a Devastating Explosion: Here's What You Need to Know
The recent deadly blast in Iran has sent shockwaves through the nation, prompting calls for retribution The attack's perpetrator remains unknown, further adding to the tension amid concerns of escalating regional conflict and involvement of key players like Israel and the United States
The recent attack in the Iranian city of Kerman, which resulted in at least 84 deaths and 284 injuries, has deeply shook the Islamic Republic and sparked strong demands for retaliation. It is considered the deadliest attack on Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The twin blasts occurred near the burial site of the late military commander Qasem Soleimani.
The perpetrator of the attack remains unknown, heightening concerns that the conflict between Israel and Gaza could escalate to involve other Middle Eastern regions, possibly leading to the involvement of regional powers and the United States. Here's the information we have regarding the incidents in Kerman:
What are Iranian officials saying?
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iranian officials have been quick to blame Israel and said it will pay for it.
In a televised speech from Tehran, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a warning to the Zionist regime, stating that they will face severe consequences for their actions. The Israeli military declined to comment on the explosions in Iran, maintaining their usual silence on allegations of operations against Iranian interests.
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"Wondering whether USA and Israel were involved in the Kerman terrorist attack, Washington claims innocence. Mohammad Jamshidi, Raisis Deputy Chief of Staff for Political Affairs, expressed skepticism, stating on X (formerly Twitter): "A fox smells its own lair first. Make no mistake. The responsibility for this crime lies with the US and Zionist regimes and terrorism is just a tool."
Tensions between Iran and Israel are high, with Iran supporting anti-Israel groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and Israel making efforts to impede Iran's nuclear program, leading to accusations from Iran of Israeli attacks aimed at disrupting their nuclear program.
Who is likely to be behind the attacks?
According to US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller, the US was not implicated in the attacks. He mentioned that the US lacks "independent information" about the explosions and therefore cannot provide an assessment of who might be responsible. However, he did state that the US has "no reason to believe that Israel was involved."
The Islamic Republic has various foes, including Iranian opposition groups, separatist organizations within the country, and ISIS. It has to contend with separatist movements in the Sistan-Baluchestan province, which borders Pakistan, and Arab separatists in the Ahvaz province, bordering Iraq. Both groups are accused of carrying out terrorist attacks in the country in the past few years.
Iran has faced attacks from ISIS and its affiliates multiple times in the last ten years. The Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Iran's leading exiled opposition group, is accused by Tehran of being supported by Saudi Arabia. However, the organization has not been involved in terrorist activities inside Iran for years, and the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has greatly improved since last year.
On October 23, 2023, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian addressed reporters at a press conference following a meeting of the South Caucasus platform in Tehran, Iran. The photo was taken by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty Images
Iran may not want a full-blown war with Israel, but it may be dragged into one
Ali Vaez, a senior adviser at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, wrote that if Israel was responsible for the attack, it could be seen as a deliberate attempt to provoke Iran into making a mistake that would justify expanding the conflict with Hamas and involving the US.
However, he also noted that the attack did not display the characteristics of an Israeli operation, but instead resembled the tactics of ISIS or Baluchi separatists.
A senior White House official informed reporters on Wednesday that the explosions "appear to be a terrorist attack." The official stated that the attacks resemble previous actions by ISIS, and this is the current assumption. Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, noted that ISIS and its branch in Afghanistan, the Khorasan group, have a record of carrying out terrorist attacks in Iran, with a focus on causing significant civilian casualties.
"The fact that no group has yet to take responsibility though could put doubts on this working assumption of terror group responsibility," she said.
Emergency services from Iran rushed to the scene where two consecutive explosions occurred during a gathering commemorating the anniversary of Qasem Soleimani's death in 2020. The incident took place near the Saheb al-Zaman Mosque in the city of Kerman, located in southern Iran, on Wednesday. (Image credit: MEHR NEWS/AFP/Getty Images)
Where does this fit in the regional situation?
The explosion in Kerman took place during a time of increased tensions in the area, with Israel engaged in a three-month conflict against Hamas in Gaza following the militant group's October 7th assault on Israel.
The conflict has extended beyond Israel and Gaza, often leading to clashes involving Iran-backed militias. On Tuesday, a senior Hamas leader was killed in a blast in a Beirut suburb, reportedly carried out by Israel according to a US official. While Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement, Hamas and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which controls the suburb, have both blamed Israel and vowed revenge.
Last week, Iran and its armed proxies accused Israel of assassinating senior Iranian commander Seyyed Razi in Syria and vowed retaliation. Israel has not commented on the matter.
In turn, Israel has accused Tehran of funding and arming Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated last month that his country is engaged in a "multi-arena war," facing attacks from seven arenas, including Iran. "We have already responded and acted in six of these arenas," he said.
How is Iran likely to respond?
A commander from the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Front was fatally struck at their base in East Baghdad, Iraq on Thursday, according to a source within the PMF who spoke to CNN.
Iran was already furious about the assassination of Mousavi, which it attributed to Israel. The recent attack in Kerman further compounds the government's shame, highlighting its inability to protect high-ranking officials and prevent attacks on its own soil. This may prompt internal pressure to retaliate against Israel, especially if top officials are convinced of its involvement. A billboard with the words "Strong answer, God willing" was unveiled in Tehran's main square on Thursday, seemingly urging the government to respond strongly to the Kerman attack.
Iran has been reportedly planning to assassinate Israelis in Europe and Asia as a way to seek revenge for alleged Israeli attacks, but these attempts have been unsuccessful. Criticism of the Iranian government's response to the killing of senior officials has come from right-wing critics, as outlined in a paper by Mohammad Mazhari published by the Stimson Center. Mazhari noted that Iranian officials appear confused and divided on the best approach for seeking revenge, with their relative inaction reflecting a policy of strategic patience aimed at avoiding direct confrontation with the US or Israel.
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Fears grow of wider war in Middle East amid deadly attacks
Vakil stated that Tehran is in a difficult situation. She suggested that Iran could shift the blame to terror groups to alleviate pressure, by claiming that Israel and the US are instigating regional unrest, while also blaming IS to avoid taking action. Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Stimson Center, expressed to CNN's Becky Anderson that Iran's delayed response to attacks raises concerns about internal stability in the country.
Iran experienced some of its largest protests since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 in late 2022, following the death of a young woman at the hands of the country's morality police. The protests were violently suppressed.
"The Kerman attack underscores Iran's vulnerability and the government's inability to ensure security," Vaez wrote on X. "While the security forces are efficient at enforcing the hijab requirement for women, they fail to preserve their lives and shield them from terrorism."
CNNs Samantha Waldenberg and Mostafa Salem contributed to this report.
