The Imminent Government Shutdown: GOP Infighting Hurts America

The internal conflict within the Republican Party has caused their formerly ineffective House majority to be labeled as a "clown show" and a "dysfunction caucus." This internal war is also seen as advantageous for the Chinese Communist Party, as stated by certain Republican members themselves. On Tuesday, tensions between far-right hardliners, moderates, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and those who seek to destroy without purpose escalated, resulting in unprecedented inter-party fights on the south side of the US Capitol.

The disastrous legislative situation has revealed that there is much more at stake than just McCarthy's weakening hold on a position he has desired for years and the GOP's ability to carry out the most essential task of the chambers - creating a budget for the country.

The absurd and self-inflicted harm by the Republican majority now seems to be pushing America towards a government shutdown as the deadline for new federal funding approaches at the end of next week. This could result in federal workers being furloughed, troops going without pay, and the potential for significant harm to an already fragile economy if the deadlock continues.

A shutdown, brought about by the demands of GOP hardliners for significant spending cuts, despite knowing it is highly unlikely to be passed in the Senate or signed by President Joe Biden, may disillusion voters who previously supported the Republicans' slim majority in the midterm elections. This situation could also cast doubt on the ability of a divided nation, exemplified by an increasingly extreme and theatrical Republican Party under the influence of ex-President Donald Trump, to effectively govern itself.

Moreover, the chaos resulting from a shutdown could have implications beyond the United States. The recent failure to pass a defense bill on Tuesday has raised concerns that political discord, both now and in the future, may impede US preparedness in the face of a rising power like China. Additionally, Ukraine's fight for survival may increasingly depend on whether or not the House can secure funding for vital arms and ammunition, highlighting the potential consequences of their reluctance or inability to do so.

What the standoff is about

The leadership team of McCarthys is currently facing challenges in their efforts to pass a stopgap spending bill, commonly referred to as a continuing resolution (CR). This bill is crucial as it aims to keep the government operational and provide more time to resolve a highly contentious internal disagreement over the demand for significant spending cuts by hardliners. However, the hardliners potentially possess the necessary numbers to prevent the bill from even progressing to the House floor, thus intensifying their demand for further concessions.

South Carolina GOP Representative Nancy Mace expressed uncertainty about how the required 218 votes would be obtained for the bill, referring to McCarthy's target number. Mace shared this sentiment after a conference meeting.

In Congress, the most intense chaos and negative emotions often arise just before a breakthrough occurs, leading to a creative resolution that delays addressing the problem for several weeks. McCarthy is hoping for this scenario by refusing to abandon the CR. However, the Republican majority is extremely slim, with the speaker being able to afford the loss of only four votes given the current margin. Additionally, the party is deeply divided, making it challenging to predict the outcome based on past experiences. Furthermore, for a small faction on the far end of the pro-Trump conference, the opportunity to shut down the government, which many of them disdain, could earn them favor from base voters and the former president. For these individuals, this outcome may be considered a victory in itself.

Rep. Mike Simpson, a seasoned Idaho representative, expressed his discontent with the current predicament where a handful of uncooperative members can control the entire chamber. He described it as frustrating to see the decline in effective functioning.

Simpson further emphasized that a small group of 20 individuals is dictating the course of action instead of allowing the consensus of the remaining 200 members to prevail. He criticized their insistence on having things their own way, pointing out that such an approach contradicts the principles of how the government should operate.

Could a tie-up between moderate Republicans and Democrats save the day?

A potential solution to address the crisis emerges in the form of a discussion between moderate House Republicans, whose seats are vulnerable in 2024, and Democrats. This collaboration would involve extending government funding and possibly providing Ukraine with additional aid.

A series of intricate maneuvers could enable the passage of a spending bill in the House that both Democrat and Republican senators in the Democrat-led Senate would agree to. However, this alternative is highly uncertain. Firstly, the implementation of the discharge petition, known as an arcane procedure, would require navigating through legislative obstacles, all while the shutdown deadline approaches.

A potential solution to end the shutdown could lie in finding common ground between moderate Republicans and Democrats, which might be more practical than trying to prevent it altogether. However, this approach would require Democrats to align with GOP lawmakers from states like New York, whom they are targeting to regain the majority in 2024. Granting victory to critical Republicans might not be a wise strategy, as it supports the current GOP majority, potentially benefiting McCarthy and avoiding a situation where the Democratic party gains an advantage from Republican disarray. Conversely, Democrats may find it appealing to seize control of the House chamber and weaken the speaker's position. Speculation about the possibility of moderate Republicans seeking revenge increased after Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican from a swing district in New York, expressed willingness to collaborate with Democrats.

"If my colleagues, who seemingly prefer theatrics over fulfilling their governing responsibilities, are unwilling to support the passing of the CR, I am determined to take all necessary measures to ensure its passage," stated Lawler.

"Our primary focus is to avert a government shutdown," he emphasized.

Rep. Mike Lawler talks on his way to a House Republican Conference meeting at the US Capitol on September 19, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is set to meet with the Problem Solvers Caucus on Wednesday, indicating that Democrats are exploring their alternatives. The Caucus has developed a bipartisan proposal to temporarily extend current spending levels and offer aid for recent domestic national disasters, Ukraine funding, and certain border security measures. However, tensions within the Democratic Party are apparent, as the Congressional Progressive Caucus has called for a meeting to discuss their views on the budget negotiations.

In the era of extreme partisanship in Congress, the idea of a moderate uprising and bipartisan solutions has often been discussed. Occasionally, these efforts have been successful, as seen with President Joe Biden's infrastructure program, which had evaded previous administrations. However, most attempts at bipartisanship collapse due to partisan interests. Sometimes, they are simply used as a tactic by party members to challenge the more radical members of their own party. For a few Republicans to break away from McCarthy, who has supported them in fundraising and advice during the midterm elections, would be a difficult decision both personally and politically. It may also result in their isolation within their own party.

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, a prominent critic of McCarthy within the GOP, stated, "If moderate Republicans align themselves with Democrats through a discharge petition, they are essentially signing their own political death warrant and delivering it to their opponents. It will be the Democrats, not the conservatives, who will target and work against them if they choose to do so."

And placing a burden on GOP moderates is the potential jeopardy they may impose upon the speaker's position. The passing of a bill in the House through Democratic support could serve as the tipping point for McCarthy's adversaries, leading to a vote to remove him from his leadership role.

Rep. Matt Gaetz talks on his way to a House Republican Conference meeting at the Capitol on September 19, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The House cant even fund the military

The challenge faced by a speaker burdened with a slender majority and a defiant conference in a party that values provocative rhetoric over the act of making laws and governing was fully exposed on Tuesday. This occurred when five conservative members thwarted an effort to approve a defense bill that encompassed key GOP objectives - an undertaking that is typically uncomplicated in the legislative process.

"The outcome of this vote has essentially given the Chinese Communist Party an advantage," stated Republican Representative Mike Garcia from California, a former Navy fighter pilot, in conversation with CNN's Manu Raju.

Representative Don Bacon from Nebraska, who represents a Biden swing district, expressed frustration with the situation, gesturing towards the House floor and referring to it as the "dysfunction caucus" while addressing reporters.

The peculiar circumstances of the House crisis were highlighted during a press conference on Tuesday by McCarthy. Tensions escalated when he was questioned about aid to Ukraine, which Biden emphasized at the United Nations as crucial for winning a war that would have far-reaching consequences due to Russian expansionism if the US abandons Kyiv.

"Was Zelensky elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don't think so," McCarthy declared, expressing his frustration towards a key Washington ally who is fighting for his country's survival. Zelensky will visit the Capitol on Thursday with the aim of securing much-needed aid from the US for his country.

Even to a leader from a war zone constantly under attack from Russian drones and missiles, Washingtons utter failure to govern itself is likely to look like dysfunction run riot.