McCarthy's Delicate Dance: Critical Choices Await as Congress Nears Government Shutdown

As the government's funds come dangerously close to running out in just six days, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finds himself facing a crucial decision. Should he jeopardize a shutdown in order to preserve his position, or should he defy his Republican hardliners and seek collaboration with the Democrats?

This pivotal moment has been brewing for months, as McCarthy endeavors to gain favor with his critics. In an attempt to appease them, he has granted permission for Republicans to proceed with voting on a range of appropriations bills this week, despite their inevitable rejection in the Senate, which is under Democratic control.

Time is running out and Republicans have been unsuccessful in mobilizing support for a short-term solution. The commitments McCarthy made in January, when he yielded to hardliners to secure his position as speaker, are now having consequences. "This is the Congress' third significant showdown: the initial week, the debt ceiling, and now government funding," stated GOP Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, a close confidant of McCarthy who played a role in negotiating the bipartisan debt ceiling agreement. "This was always anticipated to be a struggle."

McCarthy has made concerted efforts, both publicly and privately, to rally members of his conference in order to consolidate their position in spending negotiations with the Senate.

He has emphasized that a government shutdown will not bolster the Republicans' bargaining power, but he is still confronted by a faction on the right that is inclined towards a shutdown rather than cooperating with Democrats. Furthermore, former President Donald Trump intervened last week, urging Republicans on Truth Social to resist any spending bill that does not defund the Department of Justice or impede the criminal investigations against him.

"Dare not succumb to the D.C. uniparty's scare tactics that portray a government shutdown as an apocalyptic event," expressed Republican Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona on social media. "In fact, a so-called shutdown merely represents a temporary halt in unnecessary federal expenditure."

A general view of the U.S. Capitol Building, in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 19, 2023.

Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP

The situation has become more challenging for McCarthy due to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's actions to push forward his own temporary spending bill. This bill is expected to encompass disaster aid and increased funding for Ukraine's war efforts, an aspect that House hardliners strongly object to. Should the Senate approve this bill, McCarthy will have to decide whether to bring it to the floor, disregard it, or attempt to modify it - each option presenting its own set of risks for the speaker.

"I am familiar with Kevin McCarthy and have a favorable opinion of him. However, it is inevitable that a decision will have to be made regarding his leadership capabilities," stated Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia.

However, McCarthy has refrained from pledging to bring a short-term spending bill, which has been passed by the Senate, to the floor. He is aware that doing so could lead to demands for his removal.

"We will persist in collaborating with individuals. I firmly believe that if you fail to allocate funds for the military and neglect funding for border security, it becomes exceedingly challenging to anticipate success during a government shutdown. I have experienced such situations on a few occasions," remarked McCarthy on Friday.

In a conference call on Saturday afternoon, McCarthy urged members of the Republican conference to unite in support of a temporary spending bill that incorporates provisions for border security. This approach would equip House Republicans with a solid stance to commence negotiations with the Senate.

A race against the clock as tensions run high

In response to McCarthy's potential decision to introduce the Senate-passed stopgap bill on the House floor, GOP Rep. Chip Roy of Texas expressed his disagreement, stating that he believed such action would be unwise.

The House is scheduled to reconvene on Tuesday and commence voting on a range of yearlong spending bills that will allocate funds to the departments of Defense, State, Agriculture, and Homeland Security. However, there is still a possibility of uncertainty surrounding each of these bills when presented on the House floor. Leadership encountered two failed attempts to advance the defense bill last week, while the agriculture bill also faced obstacles during the summer.

The US Capitol in Washington, DC, USA, photographed by Al Drago for Bloomberg/Getty Images on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. House Republicans have presented a continuing resolution this week to prevent a government shutdown that would otherwise commence on October 1.

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Members and aides diligently worked over the weekend to resolve any discrepancies prior to presenting the packages for approval. However, even if Republicans were able to reach a consensus on four spending bills, they would still require the passage of seven additional bills, two of which are still pending committee approval, before Friday. Furthermore, they would need to engage in negotiations with the Senate and ensure that the bills are signed into law before Saturday at midnight.

Roy expressed to reporters, "Undoubtedly, the timeline is extremely tight. The process of advancing legislation in the House and subsequently obtaining consensus in the Senate appears to be quite challenging."

Rep. Marc Molinaro of New York, a moderate who played a role in proposing the initiative to commence the passage of separate spending bills, recognized that there may still be obstacles to overcome. However, he is optimistic that by moving forward with more individual bills, it could convince some of his staunch colleagues to support a temporary measure.

McCarthy decided to postpone the House GOP's stopgap bill due to a revolt from the right-wing faction, but he has not completely dismissed the possibility of eventually introducing it for consideration.

"I don't want to claim that I am completely confident," stated Molinaro. However, the objective is to make an effort to persuade as many people as possible, in order to demonstrate the genuine intention of both parties to progress towards a more comprehensive agreement. The concern among hardliners was that this action would be a mere deception, where only one appropriation bill would be moved and no further steps taken."

Meanwhile, in the Senate, Schumer is considering a final attempt and is currently in discussions with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell regarding a temporary spending option. This could potentially provide Congress with additional time to negotiate a full-year spending package.

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Schumer in talks with McConnell as shutdown looms

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"We may need to prioritize going to the House first," Schumer mentioned in an interview with CNN's Manu Raju last week. "Leader McConnell and I are currently in discussions and we have significant agreement on several aspects of this. It's not an easy task to pass a substantial bill, especially a continuing resolution bill, but I'm highly optimistic that McConnell and I can find a solution and garner substantial support from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate."

When asked if lawmakers should engage in bipartisan negotiations immediately considering the limited time, McHenry responded by saying, "First, you work on rallying support within your own party. Only after exhausting all options within your party should you consider any other alternatives."

The last-minute rush could have been prevented if the House and Senate had adhered to the agreement on the debt ceiling that was reached in May between Republicans and the White House. This agreement established spending limits for the entire federal government. However, House Republicans deviated from these limits due to pressure from conservative members, resulting in lower bill levels. Additionally, the Senate allocated an extra $8 billion for defense and $5.7 billion for non-defense emergency spending.

Some House Republicans from swing districts are considering an unconventional procedural option called a discharge petition. This option bypasses McCarthy and allows for a bipartisan funding bill to be brought to the floor. However, this process is time-consuming and, at this point, cannot prevent a government shutdown. Its main purpose would be to assist lawmakers in ending a shutdown, rather than preventing one.

GOP Representative Mike Lawler, who represents a district in New York that was won by President Biden, stated that he would support and sign a discharge petition if Republicans fail to pass a short-term funding bill. Lawler made this comment during an interview with CNN, expressing his intention to take action in the absence of a continuing resolution from the House Republican caucus.

The bipartisan leaders of the House Problem Solvers Caucus stated on Sunday that they are considering all possibilities to secure a vote on their alternative stopgap plan and prevent a shutdown. Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick and Josh Gottheimer expressed their hopes that McCarthy would bring the measure to the floor, but they also discussed alternative options with the parliamentarian, including the potential use of a discharge petition to compel a vote.

Report contributions were made by CNN's Haley Talbot, Sam Fossum, and Kristin Wilson.