Explosive Clash between Poland and Ukraine Sends Shockwaves Across Europe and Plays into Putin's Hands

Europe's support for Ukraine experienced an unforeseen setback this week when Poland, previously considered Kyiv's strongest ally on the continent, appeared to announce a halt in arms shipments to its neighbor. This decision was prompted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism of Warsaw's ongoing ban on Ukrainian grain imports. It serves as the most recent instance of Poland's increasingly confrontational approach towards Kyiv, particularly leading up to a closely contested general election in the country.

The political theater has raised several crucial questions. The most significant one being, will this be the moment when Europe's unwavering determination to resist Russia's full-scale invasion finally weakens?

So, how did a disagreement over grain imports transform into a diplomatic crisis? In May, the European Union implemented a temporary ban on grain imports from Ukraine in order to prevent an excess of inexpensive grain that could harm farmers in Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. However, the EU recently lifted the ban, causing anger among these countries, who have pledged to maintain the restrictions, consequently leading to protests in Poland.

Poland is approaching a national election on October 15, and it is anticipated that the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) will experience losses. Agriculture holds great significance in European politics, with farmers being politically active and citizens showing a sometimes disproportionate and irrational concern for food security. Maintaining support from rural voters is crucial for the PiS to stay in power.

Given this context, it is understandable that the Polish government would aim to make a dramatic nationalist gesture to capture attention. However, this seemingly minor disagreement escalated on Tuesday when Zelensky, addressing the UN general assembly, expressed concern over how certain European allies showcase solidarity through political theater, depicting it as a suspenseful narrative centered around grain.

The following day, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki replied on social media, stating that Poland is now arming itself and no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine.

However, Poland has subsequentially clarified its stance, assuring that it will still fulfill its commitment to provide the already promised weapons. Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that the prime minister's words were misinterpreted negatively.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, is seen here at the UN headquarters in New York City on September 20, 2023. Currently, he finds himself embroiled in a diplomatic feud with Poland surrounding a disagreement over grain.

Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images

The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, pictured on September 8, 2023, appeared to announce a cessation of weapon shipments to Ukraine, causing a significant deterioration in relations between the two nations.

The dispute brought forth crucial inquiries regarding the unity of Europe. However, the primary and pivotal aspect remains that European officials do not genuinely consider an imminent, significant alteration in their support towards Ukraine, especially from Poland.

"This is all election rhetoric," remarks a senior European defense source, emphasizing that farmers are a significant political constituency for the PiS. A NATO official expresses their unwavering belief that Poland will continue providing arms to Ukraine for as long as necessary. An EU official explains that the Polish people have a crucial stake in Ukraine prevailing in this war, as failure would leave them directly exposed to their longstanding adversary, Russia. However, the official acknowledges that the current assertiveness is influenced by the upcoming elections. Despite the assumption that these statements are intended for domestic consumption, the level of anger towards Poland should not be underestimated.

A senior EU diplomat informed CNN that Ukraine has already proposed a grain solution to Poland, resulting in Poland's current frustration. Additionally, 24 member states, as well as NATO, EU institutions, and national capitals throughout Europe, have expressed similar sentiments about Poland's lack of support towards Ukraine, causing them to feel bullied for the past 18 months.

The contempt can be best described by an EU Commission official who stated, "It should be viewed considering the upcoming elections, the nationalist goals of the current administration, and their assertive positions on grain-related matters, migration, and anything they perceive as a challenge to Poland's national interests. Furthermore, they criticize Brussels and the EU selectively to further their own agenda. It is a desperate attempt to rally voters - when lacking substantial solutions, they resort to fabricating and blaming an external adversary to deflect attention from their domestic policy shortcomings."

The long-term implications for Ukraine are the most significant aspect of all this. The Western world is strongly focused on integrating Ukraine into its institutions. Ukraine is actively seeking membership in both the EU and NATO, and it enjoys unanimous support in this pursuit.

Nevertheless, this support does have some stipulations and prerequisites. A majority of EU member states recognize that significant reforms are necessary to adapt the EU's operations and accommodate Ukraine.

President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walk through the colonnade to the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, on September 21, 2023.

Jim Watson/Pool/Reuters

Zelensky's mixed reception in Washington may be a taste of political storm to come

Considering the current scenario, if Ukraine were to become a member, a significant portion of the funding which is currently allocated to member states as subsidies, particularly for the agricultural sector, would be redirected towards Ukraine. Convincing Polish farmers of this prospect would be a challenging task.

Furthermore, with its accession, Ukraine would hold substantial influence within the existing EU structures, specifically in the parliament and council of member states.

Regarding NATO, some alliance members are opposed to the concept of granting a country actively engaged in warfare access to the article 5 mechanism. This mechanism, known as the "all for one and one for all" trigger, compels allies to provide support to one another.

Within the NATO alliance, numerous countries are not enthusiastic about investing in their own defense, let alone the defense of their fellow members.

Poland's aggressive stance provides an opportunity for countries that believe they have been forcefully influenced, particularly by Poland, to question the rationale behind the significant support given to Ukraine, a non-member of the alliance.

Adding to the frustration among European officials is the fact that these recent events play into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin, granting him a propaganda victory.

In response to the dispute, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, highlighted the existing tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv, and conveyed the expectation for these tensions to escalate. Diplomats often label Russia's misinformation war as a zero-sum game, where the West's adversity benefits Russia. The occurrence of public disagreements within the West allows the Kremlin to assert a divided West, which undoubtedly favors their objectives.

CNNs Radina Gigova and Anna Chernova contributed reporting.