Western disunity on Ukraine plays into Putin's long-term strategy
Putin's patient strategy on Ukraine pays off as Western unity crumbles, allowing him to claim victory without much effort
This is the moment Vladimir Putin has been waiting for: a time when he doesn't really have to do much and can consider it a victory.
The static frontlines in Ukraine are gradually becoming more entrenched as the snow accumulates. In Kyiv, there is a noticeable weakening of morale that was once considered insurmountable. There is open discussion of disagreement between the commander-in-chief and the chief of staff - Volodymyr Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny.
The situation in Russia is no longer one of defeat, and Ukraine is not making any progress either. Election season is approaching in European capitals, and even the farmers of Poland, a strong ally, are having disputes with Ukrainian neighbors. Additionally, in the United States, Senate Republicans blocked a legislative package on Wednesday that included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, as they are in a standoff with Democrats over border and immigration policy.
US President Joe Biden urged Congress on Wednesday to put aside "petty partisan politics" and provide aid for Kyiv, warning that history will harshly judge those who fail to support freedom. He emphasized, "We can't let Putin win." Meanwhile, Britain's new Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, was scheduled to speak alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on Thursday to rally continued international support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on funding for Ukraine from the Roosevelt Room of the White House, on Wednesday, December 6, 2023, in Washington.
Evan Vucci/AP
The once remarkable unity of purpose and intent that characterized the first 21 months of Europe's most significant event since the fall of the Berlin Wall has become increasingly rare. Now, there is the prospect of more disarray and disunity.
The uncertainty in Washington is even more puzzling. Congress's reluctance to provide urgently needed aid is often justified by concern from Republicans about dragging the US into another conflict. However, the aid is meant to prevent exactly that: to ensure that Ukraine can continue fighting Moscow, rather than allowing Putin to advance close enough to NATO's borders that the US is forced to fight for its allies in person, rather than through proxies.
A subtle blame game has started, with numerous articles detailing why the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to produce the expected results. The Washington Post quoted anonymous US officials who explained that Kyiv either moved too late or didn't listen enough.
Ukrainian officials must still be astonished by their allies' expectation for them to execute intricate military offensives without air superiority, a condition without which even a NATO army would not mobilize.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the President of the United Arab Emirates, and Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, pose for a photo at a state visit reception in Qasr Al Watan, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on December 6, 2023. (Abdulla Al Bedwawi/UAE Presidential Court/Handout/Reuters)
Putin's rare foreign visit to the UAE comes as the war in Ukraine continues. This marks a significant shift for the authoritarian leader, who only six months ago faced a rebellion from his henchman Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Prigozhin and other top figures of Wagner were killed in a mysterious plane crash. Moscow's wealth is primarily derived from oil money. The prisons are filling up with an apparently endless supply of cannon fodder. Russia's military has regained its strength and has, for the most part, succeeded in holding back Ukraine's counteroffensive, thanks in part to the billions of dollars of NATO training and arms that supported it.
The frontlines present three narratives. In the west, Ukraine has made a bold but difficult move across the Dnipro River to create a bridgehead, posing a threat to Russia's access to Crimea from the west. The nearby city of Kherson is subjected to daily shelling, becoming an eerie ghost town. While Ukraine may have some luck on this front, sustaining and resupplying its forces will be a significant challenge.
The frontlines below Zaporizhzhia, at the center, have been the main target of Ukraine's assaults on the city of Melitopol for months, and there has been little change. The hoped-for breakthrough here could have been a significant victory for the West and Kyiv, cutting off Russia's mainland from annexed Crimea, but it may not materialize. The upcoming snows and darkness will further slow down the fighting.
Ukrainian soldiers fire on targets in the direction of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, on December 1, 2023.
Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu/Getty Images
The town of Avdiivka is experiencing a troubling buildup of Russian forces to the east. Despite its minimal strategic value, the town serves as a symbol of Russia's willingness to endure significant losses in pursuit of a slow and grinding victory. This is evidenced by the gradual encirclement of the town, mirroring the tactics used in the city of Bakhmut earlier in the year. The fear is that this approach will continue to be employed throughout Ukraine, with Russia achieving small, costly victories at a time.
Putin's biggest advantage lies in the lack of fresh ideas from the West. The alliance's main strategy with Kyiv has failed, leading to the belief that additional aid will ultimately be ineffective in decisively winning the war.
Putin may begin to show more willingness to negotiate, and Europe might encourage Kyiv to do the same for the sake of peace. However, Western leaders are well aware of Putin's untrustworthiness and Moscow's tendency to use diplomacy as a tactic to advance its military agenda. Any potential peace agreement may only serve as a brief respite, allowing Putin to regroup and continue pursuing Ukraine. If Donald Trump were to win the US presidential election next year, the situation could become even more perilous for European security, as he has shown an inexplicable affinity for the Russian president. Trump's belief that he could secure a peace deal within 24 hours is highly unlikely to stand the test of time.
Ukrainian soldiers of the 57th Brigade walk with the remains of a powder charge in the direction of Kupiansk, in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, on November 27, 2023.
Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu/Getty Images
What is the next step for Ukraine? The West needs to overcome its fear of an enraged Russia. Despite attacks on the Russian mainland, a failed coup, and multiple ships from the Black Sea Fleet seeking refuge on Russia's coast, Putin has demonstrated that he is not seeking further conflict. He is currently focused on overcoming his weaker neighbor and is not in a position to take on NATO. Additionally, Putin's actions have shown that he is a pragmatic leader, not a reckless individual aiming for global destruction.
Secondly, the West needs to immediately and fully arm Ukraine. The current strategy of slowly providing weapons, such as the US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and M1 Abrams tanks, has been ineffective due to the delayed arrival of these weapons.
Thirdly, it is essential for the West to communicate that any peace agreement with Russia cannot allow them to establish a land corridor through southeastern Ukraine connecting the Russian mainland and Crimea. This would prevent Moscow from claiming a strategic victory.
It is crucial for Europe and the US to firmly believe that this is a crucial battle for Western security. The outcome of this battle will determine China's goals regarding Taiwan, NATO's border security, and allowing a leader accused of war crimes to escape justice. If Putin prevails, the consequences will be felt not just by the current generation, but also by future ones.
